Chris C Sanner
EF5
Okay, I'll bite on this finally. I've been watching things progress over the last couple of days on the models and things look decent at least for Wed. As far as the morning of goes, Nam and GFS are highly different right now as far as the wind fields go, but I'm gonna base this forecast off the GFS since it is the only one showing 0z for Wed.
Looks to be some morning precip around S. Oklahoma/N. Texas which will clear out by the early morning. I wouldn't expect any boundaries laid by this will be west enough to effect the show in the evening. By 0z, precip is broke out in the E. Texas Panhandle along the dryline. Capes are at ~2000 at this time from Abilene to Childress, so things will pop, but as far as tornadic activity, it looks to be limited due to poor speed sheer, but directional sheer will be good. If there is a disturbance that kicks through that is presentely undetected by the GFS, then things could get very interesting on Wed, but I just don't see it just yet. I hope I'm wrong, seeing the flatlands out west would do a soul good at this time of year.
As far as Thu goes, if things stay more isolated (unlike what's indicated right now), shear improves and capes still look like they're in the 1500-2000 range, if overnight convection puts an outflow boundary down, and we get some isolation, there could be a decent storm or two to chase in the area on Thu, but this is all a wishcast right now and its more a wait and see attitude on things right now..
Looks to be some morning precip around S. Oklahoma/N. Texas which will clear out by the early morning. I wouldn't expect any boundaries laid by this will be west enough to effect the show in the evening. By 0z, precip is broke out in the E. Texas Panhandle along the dryline. Capes are at ~2000 at this time from Abilene to Childress, so things will pop, but as far as tornadic activity, it looks to be limited due to poor speed sheer, but directional sheer will be good. If there is a disturbance that kicks through that is presentely undetected by the GFS, then things could get very interesting on Wed, but I just don't see it just yet. I hope I'm wrong, seeing the flatlands out west would do a soul good at this time of year.
As far as Thu goes, if things stay more isolated (unlike what's indicated right now), shear improves and capes still look like they're in the 1500-2000 range, if overnight convection puts an outflow boundary down, and we get some isolation, there could be a decent storm or two to chase in the area on Thu, but this is all a wishcast right now and its more a wait and see attitude on things right now..