04/09/11 FCST: OK, KS, NE, MO, IA, MN

[Jim Placzek]

Sitting at my house south of Omaha with 84 F. Had line of Cu roll by and produced some virga at best. There are few tops showing on the back of that line, but nothing serious. I wonder if that line of clouds wasn't the warm front since there is nothing but clear skies here now.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

The last few HRRR runs are showing a cap bust along the dryline with the only initiation point in NW IA.

 

[Chris Carter]

Can someone confirm another cu field developing between Grand Island and Columbus moving NE?

 

[Kevin Rolfs]

Satellite shows CU field rapidly growing/expanding towards and to the north of Omaha. Definitely a good sign that the cap is starting to weaken.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Can someone confirm another cu field developing between Grand Island and Columbus moving NE?

Indeed. That's the one to watch - it's following the trends of the latest RUC/HRRR runs, which show a large isolated cell in northeast NE/Northwest IA around 00z. Looks like that cu field is popping right on the triple point area where the warm front is intersecting the dryline. SPC mesoanalysis shows the best moisture convergence there. Like someone else noted, there's a major 850mb cap in the area though at the moment. Some forecast soundings show a 5 C rise from surface to 850mb!

 

[Michael Riedl]

I would imagine Initiation should happen within the hour, at least getting some TCu going here soon.

SPC Mesoanalysis shows CIN completely worn away along the dryline. but 700mb temps are 9-11C.

 

[Justin McGinley]

Setting on my buddies back porch waiting for something to happen. Looking at the Satellite shows that a CU field is starting to develop along the dry line so I think that is going have to be something to watch also.

 

[jshields]

http://stormeyes.org/maps/co.gif

there should be very good convergence just north and northwest of omaha. there appears to be some kind of boundary bc winds are out of the due north at a couple of obs points just north of omaha. the rest of the obs in northeast nebraska/northwest iowa have easterly winds north of the warm front

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Wow, per SPC mesoanaylisis, the area west of Omaha has a supercell composite of 20, 3KM EHI is 9, and the sig tornado parameter is 3, all right where that cu field has popped up. Still capped north of the warm front though.

Looking at the RUC 500 mb vertical velocity, there looks to be a significant piece of energy that's ejecting through NE and into northwest IA by 00z!

 

[ericjkelly]

Wow I am amazed at how strong the RUC has the Cap in Eastern NE. But I agree, with the EHI, Sig Tor, and Supercell Composite so high, if anything goes up in that area....LOOK OUT!