As the next major trough crosses the US, there could be another stretch of consecutive severe weather outbreaks. Saturday is looking like a possible big one. The GFS indicates 80 - 90 kts SW flow over the central Plains and into the upper Midwest at 00Z, accelerating even more afterward. There is about 50 kts SW flow at 700 mb, and 30-45 kts SSW at 850 mb. It looks like a great capping scenario, with moderately high 700 mb temps before 00Z, then cooling rapidly as the upper-level cooler temps move in. This could hold down convection during the early parts of the day, thus eliminating early overnight convection or early day crapvection that might otherwise kill the instability. There appears to be plenty of deep moisture with surface Tds > 60 pretty much throughout the region. There looks to be some pooling of higher Tds near the warm front in S MN, but that might be overdone. Unlike with last weekend's set up, surface winds look to be S or SSE, so shear is fantastic. Looks to be 1000 - 2000 J/kg SBCAPE throughout the region as well. Plenty of surface forcing with a dryline in place across C NE/C KS/C OK. There could be severe weather in a large area this day. The only fly in the ointment is storm speeds. Storms will have rocket packs on them, so keeping with one particular storm would be rather difficult, if not impossible. Perhaps you could just let a cell pass by, then jump south/east to the next one down the line.
This could be a big event. I've been watching it for several days now on the GFS, but just this morning it sped up the system to a Saturday event, whereas previously it looked like a Sunday event. Not how the GFS typically evolves. Things could obviously change greatly between now and then.
ADD: The 00Z ECMWF has this system a bit slower than the GFS, with the sfc low sitting out in W NE/NE CO by Saturday evening.
This could be a big event. I've been watching it for several days now on the GFS, but just this morning it sped up the system to a Saturday event, whereas previously it looked like a Sunday event. Not how the GFS typically evolves. Things could obviously change greatly between now and then.
ADD: The 00Z ECMWF has this system a bit slower than the GFS, with the sfc low sitting out in W NE/NE CO by Saturday evening.
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