03/04/2006 NOW: Southern High Plaines

[Jason McKittrick]

Convective initiation has occurred about 30 miles NNE of Clovis. SPC has just issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM CST, 55mi E&W from Guymon, OK to Guadalupe Pass, TX. Watch indicates max hail 2" and winds to 70 MPH. Storm motion 270 at 30.

 

[rdale]

"Storm motion 270 at 30."

Think you posted with too short of a loop ;> Cells not looking very severe at all, and moving almost due northeast instead of east.

- Rob

 

[Jason McKittrick]

270/30 is the mean storm motion vector off of the Watch Text.

 

[rdale]

In any case, looks like the current stuff is moving out of any good instability zone, it remains quite a narrow north/south strip. For anything organized I'd look for something to develop farther south in the cu field but not much looks ready. Yet ;>

 

[Andy Wehrle]

The cell on the Oldham/Potter County (TX) line looks much more impressive on the Lubbock radar than it does on the much closer Amarillo radar, which leads me to believe that not much precip is reaching the ground yet. However this does bear watching as it is the only game in town right now and is certainly discrete. Also, the Stoughton tornadic supercell looked decidedly unimpressive on close-up base reflectivity for a long time because it held much of its precip aloft until just before its tornadic phase.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

WOW. 5 minutes later the thing explodes to 50 dbz, gets a POSH marker on GR Level III, and a SVR from Amarillo.

SVR now extended to Potter County. LP supercell anyone?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Map Room Rules

(3) Prohibited content. Users may NOT post weather bulletins and forecast images except as brief excerpts and with original supporting information. Frivolous content is prohibited.

Just a reminder that you can post brief excerpts of official products, but it must be accompanied by "original supporting information", preferably substantive. I'm not picking on anything in particular, especially since it's the first severe weather in the plains in a long time. All discussion is encourage, but please try to make it as 'meaty' as possible. Thanks!

 

[Dan Robinson]

Like Rob said, the Amarillo cell is moving toward the eastern end of the instability axis and I wouldn't expect it to last much longer. It is trying but it's not having a very good time staying together as it is. You can tell it's the first event of spring when there are already a bunch of posts about a little rain shower like that! I do see a couple strikes showing up on NLDN so I'll give it that.

It's still early, and more cells should fire further south that should be able to spend some quality time in the instability axis.

 

[rdale]

TBSS showing up now on AMA BR1. (Interesting that they issued the warning only for Oldham Co even as the cell had left the county! It's completely out of Oldham, yet the warning runs for another 40 minutes...)

I don't see any reason to call this a supercell - no rotation evident.

http://radioweather.us/amatbss.png

GR2AE reported max hail size up to around .8-.9" with 80% POSH.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Well they now extended the warning into northern Potter county. The storm still looks relatively impressive on radar.

A couple of echos now beginning to develop along the convergence boundry east of Clovis,NM where better instability and convergence are presently located. At 5 PM Lubbock is reporting 68/54 and Plainview 68/53. Shear is still a little deficient with 0-3KM values generally between 100 and 150 M2/S2.

 

[Graham Butler]

David Drummond and I are sitting in Lea Co. NM waiting for something to pop. We just spoke with Jay McCoy about 45min ago and he says the cell NW of AMA is a gorgeous classic LP supercell. He said it looked like crap for awhile but popped into "perfectly shaped LP".

Graham Butler

 

[James Clark]

Are you seeing any development to the north/northeast in southern Curry?

 

[Ronnie Bradley]

Right now (Sunday, 0107Z), I'm watching a cell in extreme NE Moore County TX. It has a solid, little 60+dBZ core. It doesn't look supercellular but the precip gradient on its southern flank is pretty tight (WER).
I'm just glad some areas in W TX are getting some good rain.
A rather impressive multicellular complex of storms in Moore, Hutchinson and Hansford counties, TX I say.
Maybe someone here is on this storm...