03/04/05 FCST MO, TN, IL

Chase Target for Today, March 4

Target:
Chaffee, MO

Timing:
Storm initiation near Perryville, MO around 4 PM CST. Storms will move ESE at around 25 mph and may become strong by 5:30 PM.

Primary severe threat:
Hail to 1â€￾

Discussion:
Today will be similar to yesterday, only 250 mi to the east. A potent shortwave will once again approach SERN MO and WRN TN from the NW by late afternoon. This is evident in the current WV loop as a dry slot pushing E through ERN KS. With T/Td approaching 65/51, 850 mb T/Td 6C/5C, 700 mb T of -6C, and 500 mb T of -23C; expect SBCAPE’s to approach 1000 J/kG and LI’s to approach -3C locally; along with SRH (0-3km) to near 200 m^2/s^2.

- bill
 
I just took a glance at a satellite image and some surface obs from the ERN MO, SRN IL, WRN TN and WRN KY areas. There are some nice areas of clearing taking place which should allow for a little heating to take place. Temps are currently generally in the low to mid 60's with dewpoints ranging from the mid 40's to around 50. I think things are coming together to at least present a threat for some isolated severe reports.

It'll be interesting to see what develops later today and how long it can hang on into the evening.
 
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