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02/29: FCST: Severe weather in Texas Sunday?

TARGET: NONE Today is a good day to stay at home and catch up on chores. The dynamics will blow by quickly as the upper system lifts out to the northeast. Surface moisture will be a big problem along with lots of low clouds that will be slow to break in the warm sector. Perhaps mid-week will be the first chase as another system in the series enters the plains. Surface moisture and temps appear better for the next system. TIM M.
 
Target area?

I'm not chasing today. My "target city" is Jacksonville, TX , but it's buried 100s of miles into the trees of east Texas. Way too much effort for moisture starved event when I have to be in class at 830am tomorrow.

Kenneth
 
Agreed...in Texas, the combination of cool surface temperatures and warm air aloft, along with all the clouds and trees in the risk area, suggest this isn't worth any effort. The 12Z CRP sounding tells the tale. Good calls by SPC in their two outlooks issued yesterday. Maybe next time.
 
It's easy to make a forecast, or should I say NOWCAST at 8am, but when you have to be there early, then you have to make a forecast the day before, and the models did not project the shortwave progressing as quickly.

By the way: over the past 3 days, every outlook reguarding Sunday was changed by the SPC, so they didn't make the correct call days in advance.
 
It's easy to make a forecast, or should I say NOWCAST at 8am, but when you have to be there early, then you have to make a forecast the day before, and the models did not project the shortwave progressing as quickly.

By the way: over the past 3 days, every outlook reguarding Sunday was changed by the SPC, so they didn't make the correct call days in advance.
 
Originally posted by Simon Brewer
It's easy to make a forecast, or should I say NOWCAST at 8am, but when you have to be there early, then you have to make a forecast the day before, and the models did not project the shortwave progressing as quickly.

By the way: over the past 3 days, every outlook reguarding Sunday was changed by the SPC, so they didn't make the correct call days in advance.
Click to expand...

I dunno, I was never really excited about Sunday once the models started picking up close-to-reality runs. Of course it was easy to wake up this morning and say "crap, I'm staying home," but was I surprised? No.

You went out on a limb and got burned with your forecast, so it's understandable why you'd be little more miffed than the rest of us - I've been there. At least you stayed home; 2 years ago I actually gambled on my longshot February chase forecast and found myself in east TX under fair skies staring a 6-hour drive home right in the face.
 
Simon,

It's always tough forecasting this time of year, when dynamics are so strong, and we await possible last-minute moisture. I think it's not a very good move to evaluate anyone's forecast, be it SPC, TWC, or someone on this board, unless you're doing it for official verificatin (SPC does a lot of verification work, btw). Of course, I'm not saying verification isn't important, as I think verification is VERY important in improving forecasts, but if it's not done following a good procedure and done persistantly, then it becomes an informal process and more likely to be a forecast-bashing situation. We all get burned from time to time, which is all part of the learning process...

Consecutive runs of the ETA were forecasting more and more ll moisture in the area by today; in other words, dprog/dt showed the ETA was forecasting, increasingly, the return of decent moisture to eastern TX and OK. In the end, much of eastern OK/TX was overly forecast (sfc td-wise). Lon Curtis mentioned it in another list, but there have been and still are numerous and persistant problems with the Mexico RAOB stations not getting their data collected soon enough to be ingested into the NCEP models. This becomes a signficant problem when these systems affect northern Mexico, and that data-void becomes very important.

Jeff Snyder
KC0HJX
http://www.TornadoCentral.com
 
NOT SPC BASHING

By no means am I discrediting the SPC, but people should know that almost no one makes a perfect forecast days ahead of time, that is why it is called a forecast and not a 'profecy', 'destiny', or 'fact-before it happens'. Got burned today and will have more successes and busts in the future. I knew the setup, I knew what could go wrong (for the past 3 days I was worried the shortwave would eject a little quicker morning convection would screw things up), but you have to take your risk or you will never go chasing, because storms don't initiate over your house everyday and tornadoes don't touch down on your lap often, unless you've lived in northern Moore the past few years, then I consider you unlucky.

But yes, I took the risk and was burned, and in a few days I will make a forecast for Wednesday.

Happy Chasing to all, Tuesday and Wednesday look to be eventfull!!!
 
Too late Shane, I left last night around 1am and was east of Austin staring at data that I didn't want to see at 7am.
I was burned, but saw a week gust front, light rain, and partly cloudy skies all the way home.

Just waiting for Wednesday, because I'll do it all again. Got to keep the gas demand high!
 
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