02/29: FCST: Severe weather in Texas Sunday?

Despite the veering and weakening of the 850 winds south of I-20 this helps out the storm-relative shear. The weakening of the 850 winds also slows down the storm motion and increases the supercell potential. As long as overnight convection doesn't screw this one up and the atmosphere looks similiar to tonights ETA run then I say supercells definitely south of WACO, TX!!! And Jim is correct about the CAPE, the CAPE and moisture will be fine on Sunday south of I-20.

There will be tornadoes reported on Sunday!!!

DO THE MATH!!!! Sunday + Supercells + Feb 29th (leap year) = tornadoes

This will be known as the "Leap Year Outbreak"!!!!!!! (lol)

(Don't take the very last part too seriously!)
 
Well - it's Saturday morning - and would you believe that the SPC's outlooks & forecast discussions page is DOWN?

Try clicking on the Outlooks thread at the top of this Target Area forum. Blank.

They never cease to amaze me......how apt.

K.

(EDITED 8.35am to say it's back it up and running now...)
 
kind of dissappointing from the day 2 outlook:

LIMITING PARAMETER PRECLUDING THE FORECASTING OF A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER DAY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS IS THE
EXPECTED LACK OF INSTABILITY.
Click to expand...
 
After glancing at the 12Z UA soundings, Del Rio's looks the best to me. Their dp is already in the mid-50s. Looks like they will manage some sunshine this afternoon as well. Too bad the major vertical motion/overall energy with this system won't be realized until very late this evening/tonight or tomorrow.
 
After looking at the models for quite some time, I think I'm going to join the group of those who are likely going to sit out this event... Not only is this synoptic setup not very favorable for tornadic activity, but I'm getting myself excited for a possible event Wednesday. This time, it appears that there will be an abundant amount of low-level moisture (mid 60 tds pushing into Red River Valley by 0z thurs / weds. evening) and decent wind shear aloft. I myself am holdin off a couple more days to start up a new topic/thread as models can be quite erroneous at this far out...

Jeff
 
Karen, yesterday I've posted a message about forecast of this week end but where is now?It is disappeared...Let me know please
 
Moderate Risk for Texas!

I don't care what the SPC says. They are forecasting the obvious: short-lived, moisture starved, hail and wind-producing, vorticity-advection, low-topped supercells in Kansas. That will most likely occur, but south of Dallas, TX around Waco there will be a good probability of isolated supercells with good tornado probabilities!

I am issuing my own MODERATE RISK for area South of I-20 and East and West of I-35 from Big Bend Region to the western sections of Louisiana.

3a501376bf7604ffea0a608583d9ef3c.jpg

Simon
 
Re: Moderate Risk for Texas!

I don't care what the SPC says. They are forecasting the obvious: short-lived, moisture starved, hail and wind-producing, vorticity-advection, low-topped supercells in Kansas. That will most likely occur, but south of Dallas, TX around Waco there will be a good probability of isolated supercells with good tornado probabilities!

I am issuing my own MODERATE RISK for area South of I-20 and East and West of I-35 from Big Bend Region to the western sections of Louisiana.


Simon
Click to expand...

I don't know as if I'd say "good" tornado probabilities... I'll say I think there's a better chance of tornadic activity south of DFW, but still, directional shear isn't the best (and the best directional shear -- as measured as helicity -- in areas with CAPE >500j/kg shifts towards the TX/LA border and into AR/LA by mid-late afternoon), neither is the fact that the ETA is only forecasting 500-1000 j/kg CAPE over the area. I'm not very impressed... As far as chaseability is concerned, I'd hold on to that hat and hope the storms parallel a major highway, as 70-80kt 500mb winds will definately translate to fast-moving storms...

Jeff
 
Bottom line: I hope this upper pattern will persist or return in about 3-4 weeks!

Dynamics are there, but the tank is just half full.

I have the last week of March off. I hope something will happen then. April is out because of daily tours of schools to TALK about severe weather (dammit), and May sweeps.

Price I am paying to go from news to weather.

later

mp
 
I'm definitely a risk-taking type of chaser, but logic tells me to stay home on this one. Fast storm speeds, target shift into a horrible area for viewing as the day progresses, and tornadoes (if any) buried in squall lines. On their own, any of these three factors of difficulty are doable.....but all three together, I think I'll just sit at home eating junkfood and watching this one unfold from behind this computer.

I'm raring to go, to get my 2004 season underway, but it looks like next week will be the green flag for me.
 
TARGET: NONE Today is a good day to stay at home and catch up on chores. The dynamics will blow by quickly as the upper system lifts out to the northeast. Surface moisture will be a big problem along with lots of low clouds that will be slow to break in the warm sector. Perhaps mid-week will be the first chase as another system in the series enters the plains. Surface moisture and temps appear better for the next system. TIM M.
 
Target area?

I'm not chasing today. My "target city" is Jacksonville, TX , but it's buried 100s of miles into the trees of east Texas. Way too much effort for moisture starved event when I have to be in class at 830am tomorrow.

Kenneth
 
Agreed...in Texas, the combination of cool surface temperatures and warm air aloft, along with all the clouds and trees in the risk area, suggest this isn't worth any effort. The 12Z CRP sounding tells the tale. Good calls by SPC in their two outlooks issued yesterday. Maybe next time.
 
It's easy to make a forecast, or should I say NOWCAST at 8am, but when you have to be there early, then you have to make a forecast the day before, and the models did not project the shortwave progressing as quickly.

By the way: over the past 3 days, every outlook reguarding Sunday was changed by the SPC, so they didn't make the correct call days in advance.
 
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