02/27/05-03/01/05 Winter Storm: Great Lakes-Northeast

APX is really playing this event up. They are saying most of there CWA will see at least 10 inches, with in excess of 15 inches along the lake Huron shoreline (lake enhancement). GRR has a watch for 24 hour storm totals in excess of 8 inches. Storm total QPF's range from 0.50 inches on the NAM to >0.75 on the GFS, to nearly 1.00 inch on the lastest Canadian Regional GEM (~23mm). I am guessing snow ratios will be on the order of 20 to 1, since 850mb temps approach -10C, and obviously the rest of the profile is well into the -15C/best snow growth layer. Vertical velocity nears 5 -ub/s through the 80-90% RELH region, which as I said, is in the < -15C layer.

This looks like a good TROWAL setup, and I am still seeing some signs of a bit of convective instability in the SFC to 700MB layer, as indicated by the theta-e surfaces folding in on themselves.

Again, I don't really think snowfall will be heavy, but the duration is what will really allow it to pile up. It generally looks like snowfall rates of 0.50 inches/hour, with a few heavier bursts, for a solid 18-24 hours. Then again, there were reports of 3 inches/hour in WI earlier this morning within a convective looking band...
 
Looks like the GFS is the model to go with for this event... The NAM has been all over, with no two runs alike thus far. GFS has been very consistant, but we'll have to see what the 18Z run holds.

Comparing the model data to what is actually going on/has happened... The GFS isn't catching the developing precip over AR/MS/TN region, where NEXRAD data shows nearly 0.75 inches of rain has fallen in the past 6 hours. NAM is closer than the GFS, but still not far enough northwest with that area either. Latest SFC observations and buoy data indicates the SFC low is around 997MB (near the FL panhandle), much deeper than what was expected. As a matter of fact, the 18Z NAM initialized this low at 1008MB, when it was actually down to 1000MB during that time. The GFS has supported this deeper solution all along, but not quite as deep as what observations are showing...

So, it appears that things are still far from certain at this point, but the GFS does look like the better way to go...
 
This has all the makings of a dud. Long lead time, lots of hype, and models all over the place. I suspect this will be a good storm, but I'm not getting my hopes up. I'm positioned in the Champlain Valley of Vermont with snowstakes in place.
 
We received a healthy skift here. Came close to a tenth of an inch. Almost made it!!! Hopefully the next storm system will yield us at least a tenth, that would be incredibly exciting. I'd probably just stay home from work and not risk driving in it. What a winter!! :cry:



Everyone in the east enjoy yet another storm for you guys.
 
Originally posted by Joel Wright
We received a healthy skift here. Came close to a tenth of an inch. Almost made it!!! Hopefully the next storm system will yield us at least a tenth, that would be incredibly exciting. I'd probably just stay home from work and not risk driving in it. What a winter!! :cry:



Everyone in the east enjoy yet another storm for you guys.

We got around 2 :p
 
These passing snow showers are keeping me entertained today. One second the sun is out, the next it's snowing fairly hard. Because they're so brief nothing is sticking however.

It looks like the big cities are in for a heavy wet snow. Boston really looks like they're going to get it.
 
Just got done reviewing all of the data for the Great Lakes area...

Currently, it's snowing moderately with around one half inch in the past hour (it just started). Some locations in western lower MI have already seen 8 inches of snow...

Anyway, cross sections across MI show >80% RELH all the way through 500MB, with VV's of 4 -ub/s or lower for the next 12-15 hours (best between 00Z and 15-18Z tomorrow). This is all within the -20C (and lower) layer, when typically big flakes start to occur when you hit -15C, so we're good in that department. Cross sections also show a decent layer of negative EPV between 850MB and 600MB, and widely spaced theta-e surfaces, and again, well within the best snow growth layer. That lasts about 6-9HRS before moving off. That indicates a rather extended period that convective/banded snows could occur, but somewhat marginal vv's may inhibit actual lightning and thunder.

850/700MB lows track nearly overhead, which will enhance lift somewhat across the region, before being abosrbed into the east coast system around 18Z tomorrow. A strong TROWAL is in place, from New England to MI, with a strong easterly flow helping to pump Atlantic moisture into the system.

A look at the latest 21Z RUC continues to show this same scenario, and actually increases vv's by a whopping 1 -ub/s.
 
Originally posted by rdewey
Just got done reviewing all of the data for the Great Lakes area...

Currently, it's snowing moderately with around one half inch in the past hour (it just started). Some locations in western lower MI have already seen 8 inches of snow...

Anyway, cross sections across MI show >80% RELH all the way through 500MB, with VV's of 4 -ub/s or lower for the next 12-15 hours (best between 00Z and 15-18Z tomorrow). This is all within the -20C (and lower) layer, when typically big flakes start to occur when you hit -15C, so we're good in that department. Cross sections also show a decent layer of negative EPV between 850MB and 600MB, and widely spaced theta-e surfaces, and again, well within the best snow growth layer. That lasts about 6-9HRS before moving off. That indicates a rather extended period that convective/banded snows could occur, but somewhat marginal vv's may inhibit actual lightning and thunder.

850/700MB lows track nearly overhead, which will enhance lift somewhat across the region, before being abosrbed into the east coast system around 18Z tomorrow. A strong TROWAL is in place, from New England to MI, with a strong easterly flow helping to pump Atlantic moisture into the system.

A look at the latest 21Z RUC continues to show this same scenario, and actually increases vv's by a whopping 1 -ub/s.


How much snow did you end up with this time Robert?

We ended up getting almost an inch tonight suprisingly. The snow is extremely dry, I'm guessing at least 30:1 ratio snow just by looking at it.
 
We ended up with about 6 inches last night... The snow is VERY heavy and wet, it's weighing down the trees and powerlines much like an ice storm (there's about 3 inches stuck around the branches of the trees). Further west into western/central lower MI, some places received up to 11 inches of this stuff...
 
i have nearly 6 inches here, also very wet and weighting down the trees, but i'm more interested in what happens tonight, if the LES machine cranks off LK huron or not. could add alot to my totals.
 
NWS Information Statements are in... So far this season, the NWS office DTX has recorded 75 inches of snowfall, though I dispute that number somewhat, as I live about 5 miles away and don't think we have anywhere near that. Both DTW and FNT have 55 inches, which is more realistic...
 
At the NWS office in Grand Rapids Michigan
07.3 inches -Yesterday and Today
68.4 inches -Season Snowfall so far

9 inches of snow on the ground.

Want snow, there are some locations in the
Upper Peninsula with as much as 47 inches
on the ground. NWS Marquette office as of
today reported 178.6 inches for the season,
with 39 inches of snow on the ground.

Mike
 
Originally posted by rdewey
NWS Information Statements are in... So far this season, the NWS office DTX has recorded 75 inches of snowfall, though I dispute that number somewhat, as I live about 5 miles away and don't think we have anywhere near that. Both DTW and FNT have 55 inches, which is more realistic...


LOL. That's literally FIVE times more than what we've received lol.

I have never been this bitter about the weather before.
 
Originally posted by Joel Wright+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Joel Wright)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey
NWS Information Statements are in... So far this season, the NWS office DTX has recorded 75 inches of snowfall, though I dispute that number somewhat, as I live about 5 miles away and don't think we have anywhere near that. Both DTW and FNT have 55 inches, which is more realistic...


LOL. That's literally FIVE times more than what we've received lol.

I have never been this bitter about the weather before.[/b]

I don't think winter will give up just yet... Some of the biggest ice/snowstorms have occured in March, and even April. In fact, Detroit's biggest snowfall (around 25 inches in 24 hours, I believe), occured in early April. Detroit's LATEST snowfall occured around mid May, where they accumulated 6 inches, with up to a foot around the Flint area... :shock:

I don't want snow that late, though it would be neat with the leaves on the trees...
 
Back
Top