Wx predictions for 2005

  • Thread starter Christopher Madairy
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Christopher Madairy

Good day everyone. I'm curious about weather predictions for the US in 2005. Anyone have any opinions, ideas, etc? I live in Maryland and we don't really get the super cells that are seen west of here, but the way the weather has been these past few years, I have no idea what to expect. Thanks all & everyone have a great day. :)

73
Christopher, N3QXX
 
Trying to make predictions about the weather just a few days in advance can be a chore. So I'm just not sure how accurate we can be in our assessment of the entire year. But with that said, I'll take a stab at it.

I have noticed that the SRN Plains and Deep South haven't been as active the past few years as is often the case. That's not to say there was no storms or tornadoes, but these areas have been just a bit below average it seems.

I have also noticed that we haven't seen many active early Spring periods either, which may explain the observation I made earlier regarding the deep south.

I think this may change this year. If I must make a prediction, then that prediction will be a much more active March and April, along with more action across the SRN Plains.

It seems we are in a pattern where system after system will be moving across this area. With Spring approaching, it's only a matter of time until we get a day where enough things come together to create a favorable severe thunderstorm environment. If this pattern remains, then there will likely be many storm days over these areas.

So, my prediction is this:

If you are in TX, OK and AR.....be ready! And if you're S of the Ohio River and E of the Mississippi River, be on guard! I feel OK and TX will go back to the days of old, dominating the tornado picture, while the SRN US States may experience the most active storm season since the 1998/1999 years. It also would not surprise me to see a late season (perhaps June) significant outbreak somewhere well outside the traditional "Tornado Alley"....such as up N in Michigan or in the NERN US somewhere.

Can I prove any of this? Of course not. It's just a hunch based on a gut feeling, if that accounts for anything. Part of it (a very small part) comes from this being an El Nino year. I am not convinced it creates conditions for tornadoes, but I haven't totally discounted it either. The other, more major reason I feel this way is simply because many of these areas I have mentioned are long overdue. You aren't going to keep TX and OK from having major severe weather outbreaks on a regular basis for long.

Now only time will tell what's going to happen. But I feel we will get another good to above average tornado year, as they seem to come in threes.

-George
 
If we don't have a F5 tornado somewhere in the US this year, this will also be the longest F5 drought in over ten years!

The past few years have been way above average, so a third above-average year in a row? Well, I guess it's possible because we've already had a couple moderate and slight risks so far since the year began.

I'll be on the plains in May... so my odds of seeing severe weather are pretty good... LOL!

..Nick..
 
Originally posted by Dan Cook
Illinois will be the hotspot this year. 8)

Hopefully... Since that's a much shorter drive than trying to hit OK or KS...

Personally, I don't care where it's at, just as long as I can see it!
 
May 3, '99 was the last F5 right? Im looking at a list of F5's and if we make it to May 3 without an F5, at six years span, this will be the longest period without an F5 since we've been recording them. 194753 comes close but its just under six years by a few weeks. Please correct that bold statement if its wrong.

As for my prediction: Iowa will light up the skies once again, but she is a fierce and fickle mistress, and will elude those inexperienced in her treacherous ways.
 
Originally posted by nickgrillo
If we don't have a F5 tornado somewhere in the US this year, this will also be the longest F5 drought in over ten years!

You say that like it's a bad thing.

I'm sure there have been tornadoes the past few years that, had they impacted a populated area, would have produced F5 damage.

Anyway, if the current split flow pattern persists into Spring, I'd expect the southern branch to remain active. Furthermore, all of the rain and snow that's fallen in southern CA and the SW may green things up enough such that the Southern Plains won't see premature ridging before Summer. The current El Nino looks to be waning, however, so that's something to keep in mind.

I have a feeling Texas and Oklahoma will be back in the game this year.
 
Originally posted by Jeff Lawson+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Lawson)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo
If we don't have a F5 tornado somewhere in the US this year, this will also be the longest F5 drought in over ten years!

You say that like it's a bad thing.

I'm sure there have been tornadoes the past few years that, had they impacted a populated area, would have produced F5 damage.[/b]

I do agree that some tornadoes in the past few years would have been F5's had they hit good structures.

About tornadoes actually hitting structures - The way I look at it, is like this: It's nature. People destory nature ... Nature destroys people... Not much you can do about it. Although you can't prevent it, you can still aid in relief efforts... So, if it's gonna happen anyway, why not be there?
 
weather prediction for 2005

It will snow on 07/04/05 in Desmoines Iowa. :lol:
 
I am inclined to agree with the previous posters. The last couple Aprils have been relatively quiet-April used to be the most prevalent month for high-risk days but that has shifted to May in 2003 and 2004.

However, I do like the whole upper Midwest thing-I say Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan will all be very active this year just because there are a bunch of chasers from that region that will be leaving it for a Plains vacation this year. :D
 
Originally posted by Dan Cook+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dan Cook)</div>
Originally posted by Mickey Ptak+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mickey Ptak)
<!--QuoteBegin-APritchard
@
<!--QuoteBegin-Dan Cook

Illinois will be the hotspot this year. 8)


Again. :lol:


:twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
Thats all I have to say about that crap. lol

Mick[/b]

Don't hate because you know it'll be true. :p[/b][/quote]

I'm going to have to vote for Illinois this year also.
 
I personally don't care where it is as long as IT is in May! My 3 weeks are off then! If it must be April, I wonder if Nature will keep it on the weekends! 8)
 
I'd say that also Tony, but damn gas prices are going to be so high this season (as always) and my chase fund is running off fumes as it is. I mean If I were rich like you I'd chase everywhere also. LOL JK. Anyway keep it in OK, TX, and KS (WHERE IT SHOULD BE) and this silly man will be happy.

It's almost here!!!

Mick
 
2005 Outlook

I think the Colorado high plains will be quite active this May and June,
since our mountain snow pack is above normal. This is a key moisture
source for thunderstorms here, since the deeper gulf moisture has difficulty
getting up the incline from Texas :lol:
 
I hope to log more than a few chases in the Texas panhandle or even eastern New Mexico. I love the very flat terrain and excellent road grid, not to mention the orographic boost from the caprock and convergence focus created by the canyons. It's my favorite turf, with the Front Range a close second for some of the same reasons, minus roads.

However I'll go where they send us, like I told MikeH the other day. I was in South Dakota in the first week of May 2004 and still too far south on one chase. You never know.
 
I think the Colorado high plains will be quite active this May and June,
since our mountain snow pack is above normal. This is a key moisture
source for thunderstorms here, since the deeper gulf moisture has difficulty
getting up the incline from Texas


I hope so. This would greatly cut down on our driving time. I think it will at least be a somewhat active tornado season, but not as active as the last two years. As long as there is something reachable in May and June that I can see, I will be happy! :)
 
Originally posted by Andy Wehrle
I However, I do like the whole upper Midwest thing-I say Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan will all be very active this year just because there are a bunch of chasers from that region that will be leaving it for a Plains vacation this year. :D

I hope so, since i'm stuck here until who knows when.

My pred. is for a quiet spring and a very active summer and early fall for the upper midwest/great lakes in a ring of fire type setup.
 
Originally posted by Skip Talbot
May 3, '99 was the last F5 right? Im looking at a list of F5's and if we make it to May 3 without an F5, at six years span, this will be the longest period without an F5 since we've been recording them. 194753 comes close but its just under six years by a few weeks. Please correct that bold statement if its wrong.

As for my prediction: Iowa will light up the skies once again, but she is a fierce and fickle mistress, and will elude those inexperienced in her treacherous ways.

I'm not going to attempt to predict what this year will be like. I can say Im hoping for a year of colossal outbreaks of slow moving wedges during the weeks of May 16th, 23rd, and 30th, since I'll be out there at that time :lol: As a response to your question about May 3 being the last F5, yes it was. However on May 4th or 8th of 2003 there was a violent tornado in eastern KS that they were considering rating F5. I forget what town it hit.
 
Originally posted by Chris Hayes
[ As a response to your question about May 3 being the last F5, yes it was. However on May 4th or 8th of 2003 there was a violent tornado in eastern KS that they were considering rating F5. I forget what town it hit.

That would have been one of the tornados that hit the KC metro area i think.

Also, i thought the harper tornado from this past spring was close to being ranked an F5?
 
I suspect the Northern Plains will be more active than last year. The Dakotas and MN were stuck in cool northwest flow for much of the season leaving the bulk of the action further south. Some locations such as Grand Forks and Duluth had record or near record cold months during the summer. From a statistical standpoint this will be hard to replicate. Despite that the cool flow regime, there were some fair to good chase days north of Iowa last year. If the moisture continues to fall in the Southern Plains than it will be easier to get the moisture transport further north. The overall lack of winter in the Plains should allow for a faster green-up which would give a transpiration boost. Further south I anticipate a more active March and April if the current pattern persists. Maybe a solid year for everybody!? If I had to put a dollar down on the map I'd drop it on eastern SD, northern IA, and southern MN for this year's hot spot after the death ridge sets in furthern south.
 
[ As a response to your question about May 3 being the last F5, yes it was. However on May 4th or 8th of 2003 there was a violent tornado in eastern KS that they were considering rating F5. I forget what town it hit.

The Hallam Tornado on May 22 was in my mind as close to an F5 as it gets without achieving the mark. There were clean foundations but still some loose debris here and there. The one thing that caught my eye while checking out the damage was some houses were 100% destroyed yet trees were still standing...

Note the foundation "swept clean" less the air conditioner. Also note the tree with leaves still on.

[Broken External Image]:http://snrs.unl.edu/amet898/turcotte/photos/damage22052004/damage16.JPG

More damage photos including a cow that landed in a field. Still in one piece so nice quite M5 on the Moojita scale.

[/img]http://snrs.unl.edu/amet898/turcotte/secondary/damage_hallam/damage1.htm
 
Originally posted by Justin Turcotte

The Hallam Tornado on May 22 was in my mind as close to an F5 as it gets without achieving the mark. There were clean foundations but still some loose debris here and there. The one thing that caught my eye while checking out the damage was some houses were 100% destroyed yet trees were still standing...

Note the foundation \"swept clean\" less the air conditioner. Also note the tree with leaves still on.

Just had to butt in here.

Sorry, don't compute on that one. The picture you show me above in no way says F5 damage to me. It says "poorly or not-at-all anchored house gets swept away by F3-ish winds hence the telephone pole and tree still standing". F3 by default. Thats what it says to me.

F5? I want to see scoured ground and denuded stumps. Sorry. Oh - and no telephone poles.

Oh - and it doesn't look like it was "swept away" - there's an awful amount of debris on that slab - including what looks like roof beams.

KR
 
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