Wx predictions for 2005

[Justin Turcotte]

I opted to post a new thread for the F-scale rather than continue to hijack the preiction thread. All thoughts encouraged. I'm actually writing a thesis paper on the F-scale and potential population density induced bias.

Agree, hard to make a call based on one image. This is what students had to do in the 70's to give F-scale ratings to previous tornadoes in order to fill the record.

 

[Joe Nield]

Originally posted by Amos Magliocco
I hope to log more than a few chases in the Texas panhandle or even eastern New Mexico. I love the very flat terrain and excellent road grid, not to mention the orographic boost from the caprock and convergence focus created by the canyons. It's my favorite turf, with the Front Range a close second for some of the same reasons, minus roads.

I'm with you on that, Amos. We never set foot in Texas during our trip last May, and I'm really looking forward to it this year, assuming climatology decides to be a little more on the ball this time around.

 

[Thomas Loades]

Originally posted by Amos Magliocco
I thought I heard that damage surveys for anything considered above F3 damage are now done by a centralized Quick Response Team dispatched to any CWA in the US, and that there has not been an F5 ranking since the formation of that unit. Is any of that correct?

This sounds familiar — I think it came up with discussion of the May 4, 2003, Liberty, MO tornado (or one of the tornadoes that day) . . . that an unofficial survey found F5 damage, but the tornado was rated F4 anyway, owing to some cautiousness on the part of this survey team. It might be in here somewhere.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

On the topic of prediction for this year ... maybe it would be better to say speculation for this year ... I'm hoping for another active season in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and and NW Missouri ... global warming certainly seems to be altering things in this department, though I do not doubt that Texas and Oklahoma will again see a fair share ... south-central Kansas has seemed to just become a major player these days and I plan to go there as much as possible this season. Hello Wichita! Will also be playing my normal stomping grounds around Chester, Nebraska and Concordia, Kansas I'm sure ... they are favorites that I return to year after year.

On the topic of ratings, I kind of doubt that Liberty would have been rated anything higher than F3-F4. The Carriage Hills subdivision in Gladstone experienced the most intense damage during that event, and though it was mind-blowing, it did not come close to wiping foundations clean like we saw in events like Jarrell, TX or Moore, OK. I would think the debate was probably over whether to rate F3 or F4 rather than F4/F5, but I really don't know.

Seems like most debate by chasers along the lines of rating different events is an exercise in futility - - - it's fun to guestimate, but there are a lot of factors that the teams take into consideration that chasers fail to. I'm not saying that mistakes aren't made, because this is hardly an exact science and is highly subjective ... but I tend to just let the results fall where they may ...

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Based on the weather we experienced during February across the central and southern plains, i.e. mild with rain, weather more typical of March or April, and the fact that March has been relatively inactive the last several years. I believe that we will have 3 or 4 plains outbreaks this year during the month of March. I also feel April will be rather active with a break in the action during May which has seen record breaking tornado numbers for two consecutive years. I think the early bird will get the worm this year.

 

[Gene Rhoden]

Originally posted by rdewey

More along the lines of this, Gene? :lol:

Yep that's more like it. Still - damage is still so subjective and without actually *being* there, I appreciate that it is hard to see the whole picture. But - alas - for F5 I feel a bit queasy about the leafy tree and power pole in the image in question.

During his damage survey talks, Tim Marshall teaches folks to look for the lowest common denominator in tornado damage - rather than the most impressive aspect of any single scene. But then - tornadoes are rated by the highest level of damage found......so everybody's doing their best but contradicting each other at the same time.

Shhhh! LMAO. :lol:

 

[Shane Adams]

I wouldn't slap an F5 on Mulvane.

But F4, absolutely

 

[William Rayner]

2005 predictions

Predictions of early tornadoes are all very nice, but for someone with a 2-week annual window, I’ve gotta look at May-June. Also, we have to leave on a Thursday and return on a Friday, which narrows the options. I’m thinking May 19 to June 3, but my son is pushing for May 26-June 10. Last year, we did more May than June and hit 4 tornadoes. What do you guys and gals think about this year — better chances for tornado-spotting in May or June?
– William Rayner all the way from Canada

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Originally posted by Jeff Lawson
Hallam was clearly a violent tornado (F4 damage is nothing to sneeze at!), but I haven't seen any photos that indicate F5 damage at all. As for the house in the example, it would be nice to have a wider view in order to 1) See what the house was constructed of, and 2) See where it all ended up in relation to the foundation.

One thing to consider about the Hallam tornado was that the tornado didn't hit the town directly. The center of the damage path was 3/4 of a mile to a mile south of Hallam. Typically, the strongest damage is associated with the right front quadrant because of the addition of rotational speed and translational speed. In other words, the fact that the Hallam tornado produced F4 tornado damage in the left quadrants is incredibly impressive. If this tornado had directly impacted Hallam, it might have produced F5 damage.

Another tornado that may have potentially been an F5 since Bridge Creek/Moore was the Mulhall tornado of the same day. That particular tornado had velocity difference (over 2 km) of ~300 mph a few hundred feet off the ground. That tornado also skirted the town of which it acquired its name.

By the way, the Franklin, KS tornado of May 4, 2003 was rated as high-end F4 and (from what I understand) was considered for an F5 rating.

Gabe