Wx predictions for 2005

[Christopher Madairy]

Good day everyone. I'm curious about weather predictions for the US in 2005. Anyone have any opinions, ideas, etc? I live in Maryland and we don't really get the super cells that are seen west of here, but the way the weather has been these past few years, I have no idea what to expect. Thanks all & everyone have a great day.

73
Christopher, N3QXX

 

[George Tincher]

Trying to make predictions about the weather just a few days in advance can be a chore. So I'm just not sure how accurate we can be in our assessment of the entire year. But with that said, I'll take a stab at it.

I have noticed that the SRN Plains and Deep South haven't been as active the past few years as is often the case. That's not to say there was no storms or tornadoes, but these areas have been just a bit below average it seems.

I have also noticed that we haven't seen many active early Spring periods either, which may explain the observation I made earlier regarding the deep south.

I think this may change this year. If I must make a prediction, then that prediction will be a much more active March and April, along with more action across the SRN Plains.

It seems we are in a pattern where system after system will be moving across this area. With Spring approaching, it's only a matter of time until we get a day where enough things come together to create a favorable severe thunderstorm environment. If this pattern remains, then there will likely be many storm days over these areas.

So, my prediction is this:

If you are in TX, OK and AR.....be ready! And if you're S of the Ohio River and E of the Mississippi River, be on guard! I feel OK and TX will go back to the days of old, dominating the tornado picture, while the SRN US States may experience the most active storm season since the 1998/1999 years. It also would not surprise me to see a late season (perhaps June) significant outbreak somewhere well outside the traditional "Tornado Alley"....such as up N in Michigan or in the NERN US somewhere.

Can I prove any of this? Of course not. It's just a hunch based on a gut feeling, if that accounts for anything. Part of it (a very small part) comes from this being an El Nino year. I am not convinced it creates conditions for tornadoes, but I haven't totally discounted it either. The other, more major reason I feel this way is simply because many of these areas I have mentioned are long overdue. You aren't going to keep TX and OK from having major severe weather outbreaks on a regular basis for long.

Now only time will tell what's going to happen. But I feel we will get another good to above average tornado year, as they seem to come in threes.

-George

 

[nickgrillo]

If we don't have a F5 tornado somewhere in the US this year, this will also be the longest F5 drought in over ten years!

The past few years have been way above average, so a third above-average year in a row? Well, I guess it's possible because we've already had a couple moderate and slight risks so far since the year began.

I'll be on the plains in May... so my odds of seeing severe weather are pretty good... LOL!

..Nick..

 

[Dan Cook]

Illinois will be the hotspot this year. 8)

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Dan Cook
Illinois will be the hotspot this year. 8)

Hopefully... Since that's a much shorter drive than trying to hit OK or KS...

Personally, I don't care where it's at, just as long as I can see it!

 

[Skip Talbot]

May 3, '99 was the last F5 right? Im looking at a list of F5's and if we make it to May 3 without an F5, at six years span, this will be the longest period without an F5 since we've been recording them. 194753 comes close but its just under six years by a few weeks. Please correct that bold statement if its wrong.

As for my prediction: Iowa will light up the skies once again, but she is a fierce and fickle mistress, and will elude those inexperienced in her treacherous ways.

 

[Jeff Lawson]

Originally posted by nickgrillo
If we don't have a F5 tornado somewhere in the US this year, this will also be the longest F5 drought in over ten years!

You say that like it's a bad thing.

I'm sure there have been tornadoes the past few years that, had they impacted a populated area, would have produced F5 damage.

Anyway, if the current split flow pattern persists into Spring, I'd expect the southern branch to remain active. Furthermore, all of the rain and snow that's fallen in southern CA and the SW may green things up enough such that the Southern Plains won't see premature ridging before Summer. The current El Nino looks to be waning, however, so that's something to keep in mind.

I have a feeling Texas and Oklahoma will be back in the game this year.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Jeff Lawson+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Lawson)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo

If we don't have a F5 tornado somewhere in the US this year, this will also be the longest F5 drought in over ten years!

You say that like it's a bad thing.

I'm sure there have been tornadoes the past few years that, had they impacted a populated area, would have produced F5 damage.[/b]

I do agree that some tornadoes in the past few years would have been F5's had they hit good structures.

About tornadoes actually hitting structures - The way I look at it, is like this: It's nature. People destory nature ... Nature destroys people... Not much you can do about it. Although you can't prevent it, you can still aid in relief efforts... So, if it's gonna happen anyway, why not be there?

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Originally posted by Dan Cook
Illinois will be the hotspot this year. 8)

Again. :lol:

 

[Mickey Ptak]

Originally posted by APritchard+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(APritchard)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Dan Cook

Illinois will be the hotspot this year. 8)

Again. :lol:[/b]

:twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
Thats all I have to say about that crap. lol

Mick

 

[Craig Maire II]

weather prediction for 2005

It will snow on 07/04/05 in Desmoines Iowa. :lol:

 

[Dan Cook]

Originally posted by Mickey Ptak+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mickey Ptak)</div>

Originally posted by APritchard@
<!--QuoteBegin-Dan Cook

Illinois will be the hotspot this year. 8)

Again. :lol:

:twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
Thats all I have to say about that crap. lol

Mick[/b]

Don't hate because you know it'll be true.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I am inclined to agree with the previous posters. The last couple Aprils have been relatively quiet-April used to be the most prevalent month for high-risk days but that has shifted to May in 2003 and 2004.

However, I do like the whole upper Midwest thing-I say Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan will all be very active this year just because there are a bunch of chasers from that region that will be leaving it for a Plains vacation this year.

 

[Brad Emel]

Originally posted by Dan Cook+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dan Cook)</div>

Originally posted by Mickey Ptak+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mickey Ptak)

<!--QuoteBegin-APritchard

@
<!--QuoteBegin-Dan Cook

Illinois will be the hotspot this year. 8)

Again. :lol:

:twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
Thats all I have to say about that crap. lol

Mick[/b]

Don't hate because you know it'll be true. [/b][/quote]

I'm going to have to vote for Illinois this year also.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I personally don't care where it is as long as IT is in May! My 3 weeks are off then! If it must be April, I wonder if Nature will keep it on the weekends! 8)