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    Sincerely, Jeff D.

WINTER STORM FCST 12/07/07-12/12/07: KS, MO, IA, IL, MN, WI, NE, MI

  • Thread starter Thread starter Michael O'Keeffe
  • Start date Start date
Looking at the potential for a very damaging/devastating icestorm later tonight and tomorrow. Still looks like the best icing will occur from the Salina KS area, northeast to near St Joseph MO, up towards Lamoni IA, to just south of the Quad Cities, and up towards NIU/Dekalb IL. Folks along this line should easily see 3/4" glaze, with additional amounts where some thunderstorms occur. With this much ice, widespread power outages and significant damage to trees and powerlines are a given. Wind will be almost non-existent with the storm, which does help somewhat. However, given the magnitude of the glazing, it's not much consolation.

Anyone who lives in these areas needs to start your preparations, as we may be losing electricity for awhile.

Warmer air will try to sneak northward, and should have at least some success. Areas like Kansas City, Quincy/Peoria IL should spike above freezing early Tuesday morning helping to alleviate the ice buildup there. The GFS and GEM both show this, and have proven with past icestorms to be pretty good at forecasting the surface freezing line in these events.
 
FCST ice storm, eastern IA

A major ice storm will affect much of Eastern Iowa along and south of US-30 from late Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. Ice accumulations in excess of 0.5 inches will cause widespread power outages and damage to trees, as well as causing a major travel hazard. The heaviest ice accumulations will occur along and south of I-80 in eastern IA. A silver lining in all of this is that winds will remain light for the duration of this event. Below are forecasts for specific locations:

Cedar Rapids:
Sleet and freezing rain will start at 12:30 AM Tuesday. A changeover to snow will occur at 3 PM Tuesday. Precipitation will end at 7 PM Tuesday. Total ice accumulation: 0.20 inch. Total sleet: 0.30 inches. Total snowfall on top of the ice and sleet: 1.5 inches.

Iowa City:
Freezing rain will start at 11:45 PM tonight. Thunderstorms are possible between 3 AM and 9 AM, resulting in enhanced icing rates. Sleet will mix with the freezing rain during the afternoon Tuesday. Total ice accumulation: 0.7 inches.

Marengo:
Freezing rain will start at 11:30 PM tonight. Thunderstorms are possible between 3 AM and 9 AM, resulting in enhanced icing rates. Sleet will mix with the freezing rain during the afternoon Tuesday. Total ice accumulation: 0.6 inches.

Synopsis:
UA analysis this morning indicated a 140kt H3 speed max over AZ ejecting ahead of persistent WRN CONUS trough. A sharp, E/W-oriented H85-H7 baroclinic zone as well as SFC high-pressure were noted in IA. WV imagery also indicated potent NRN-branch SHRTWV over WY/ID/MT.

Discussion:
SFC high pressure will move E of the area today, with STG mid-level WAA developing. Another round of SHRTWV energy will eject NE from the SWRN CONUS trough and bring a good chance for winter WX. By 06Z, a 50kt LLJ will develop and H85 temperatures will reach +5C along I-80. Moisture will increase with PW values two- to three-times seasonal norms S of the H8 WF. MDLS (NAM, GFS) show strongest forcing developing from 06Z Tuesday through 15Z Tuesday between US-34 and I-80 in ERN IA. Moderate H7-H8 sloping frontogenetical forcing between I-80 and US-30 will be collocated with isentropic lift and omega beneath the right-entrance region of a 150kt H3 jet. A large part of this frontogenetical forcing (and strengthening of the thermal gradient) should be due to horizontal deformation acting on the thermal gradient. All of this points to some elevated convection in the S. Meanwhile, the aforementioned SHRTWV in the NRN branch of the jetstream will provide a reinforcing shot of shallow CAA. MDLS are indicating storm total QPF ranging from 0.50 inch to 1.05 inch by Tuesday afternoon, while locally higher amounts may occur along and S of I-80 where any convection or banding of the precipitation occurs. MDL soundings show all FZRA S of I-80 and N of US-34with SLT mixing in further N. Latest MDL trends suggest a more NRLY trajectory but with less mid-level WAA. A change to all RA is indicated further S, but this is discounted as MDLS are underestimating the shallow arctic AMS.

- bill
10:00 AM CST, 12/10/07
 
I am still crossing my fingers for the more northerly trajectory as I live on 20 and if it all stays 30 on south I will miss it by about 30 miles....as it stands now I expect a good deal of sleet again where I am.. like last time...
 
I don't usually post quotes from the NWS on ST, but I thought this latest statement from DVN was particularly ominous...

A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. PREPARATIONS FOR THIS ICE STORM SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BY THIS EVENING. THE PROBABILITY IS HIGH THAT POWER
INTERRUPTIONS...POSSIBLY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...WILL
OCCUR DURING THIS STORM.

FREEZING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ICE
ACCUMULATION THAT OCCURS WILL BE ON TOP OF THE LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION ALREADY ON TREES AND POWER LINES
. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MOST OF THE
WARNING AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA IOWA
TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS LINE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR.


Reading some of the posts from the ongoing NOW thread only makes the above statement scarier. The models have been pretty persistent with their QPF forecasts, so at this point it's looking like much of the area's in for a very bad icestorm. The icestorm on Dec 1st gave us about 3/4", and caused widespread power outages and tree damage. I can't even imagine what 1"+ ice accumulations would do.
 
It looks as if NE Missouri, SE Iowa and extreme West Central Illinois are going to get socked with a fairly heavy glaze. Based on the latest QPF forecasts + the threat of convection, I wouldn't be suprised if a few locations exceed the predicted 1" total accumulation of ice.

The big question for the southern and eastern areas of the predicted ice accumulations will be how quickly the cold layer erodes. It looks as if the freezing line will remain southeast of the IL river for much of the day on Tuesday.

It noted this was part of the LSX discussion earlier today:
"OBVIOUSLY WE WILL NEED TO WATCH SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE EVENT...AS ONLY 25 TO 50 MILES WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLE CATASTROPHIC ICE ACCUMULATION AND JUST PLAIN OLD RAIN."
 
I am wondering what this afternoon's package will bring about. Reading Kansas City they now are considering making "MAJOR CHANGES TO THE AREAS WHICH WILL RECEIVE HEAVIEST ICE." I am hoping they are going to jump on the northward trend bandwagon and shove everything north. The NWS forecast for one county to the north of me is 2-4 inches of sleet! I am surprised Lacrosse has not issued if that is true. DSM saying now there is a definate trend northwestward with heaviest precip but do not know how far north it will go..as long as it goes far enough north to be over my house I will be a happy camper!
 
That latest update by EAX is definitely an attention grabber! Anxious to see what they come up with this afternoon. They are also lowering the POPS quite a bit to the south, sounds like ... and it at least makes it sound like they're expecting more warm air advection than they previously thought. I'll definitely be refreshing that page a few times until some clarifications are made and it's expanded on a bit -
 
I did some forecasting this morning and my thinking was that Wichita would dodge the bullet for the most part. I was thinking we would stay below freezing over night and get a good glaze of ice, but by tomorrow morning we will come back above freezing a degree or two and quickly melt off the ice we have. The NWS have been consistent in keeping us at a high of 30 between now and Wednesday morning though, so that is the only thing shaking my confidence. I'm about 60-40 we'll get above freezing tomorrow morning. I also think the bulk of the precipitation will hit us tomorrow and if it happens after we clear freezing we should get off relatively easy. The Hutchinson to Topeka area is going to get hammered. I wouldn't be surprised to see somebody in that area get > an inch of ice. That will be a crippling event for people in that part of the state.
Anyways, I'm hoping we stay below freezing because I would love a good ice storm, but I'm doubting our chances of that happening. Time will tell.
 
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Just took a look at the latest EAX web briefing ... the graphics they are using now are really indicating the bulls eye moving off to the north. Topeka to St. Joe looks to be the hot spot (good call Joel!). Not good for the family, but I'd still rather STJ take the hit than KC. Also - doesn't look to me like anything is going to seriously get underway till much later on.
 
ZOOT! Lacrosse is going to issue Winter weather adivsory... here's to hoping DSM will do at least the same... I am still keeping my fingers crossed for Winter Storm warning..might be a big hopefull there however...
 
Just took a look at the latest EAX web briefing ... the graphics they are using now are really indicating the bulls eye moving off to the north. Topeka to St. Joe looks to be the hot spot (good call Joel!). Not good for the family, but I'd still rather STJ take the hit than KC. Also - doesn't look to me like anything is going to seriously get underway till much later on.

Looking at the satellite loop and last couple radar scans, I bet it starts lighting up pretty soon in ne KS. Dang temps are bugging me, already at 30 in so many areas, but then again there is some sunshine in that area. I may hedge my bet for worth hit area just west or northwest of St. Joe. Heading that way now, just incase it does light up sooner, as it appears it will.
 
I am glad to see that QPF has upped my amounts by quite a bit...I was sitting on the line of .1 and now I am on the line of 1.0! If this holds true I would expect to reach warning criteria on something...be it snow or ice...
 
Looks like a lot of the thinking in here is reinforced by the latest outlook language out of EAX --

OVERNIGHT...AREAS NORTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN DURING THE NIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF AN ATCHISON KANSAS TO UNIONVILLE LINE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF ICE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY SEEING CLOSE TO AN INCH OF ICE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. FROM KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE AND MACON AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

Mike H better get himself to St. Joe. Have fun because I'm not going near that place tonight. Will be bad enough down here, from what I can tell. Radar is really starting to fill in across Kansas-

kansasradar.jpg
 
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