Why so quiet??

[bradjones]

Thanks for all the input. All I am saying is all I remember when I was growing up in the late 80s and 90s is that you could bank on May being very active here. I think we are about at average when it comes to our tornado count for this year because April was active.

 

[Zach Young]

This graph reminds me that things may seem out of place but they may not actually be:
WCM count
Yes, summer might start a little earlier this year, but that happens. How many tornado days do you need in OK in May for everything to be ok?

Enough to get a fix, and combat the symptoms of withdrawal. When the shakes go away, everything's OK!

 

[Michael Snyder]

Concerning Global warming which has been mentioned later in your thread, it’s normal and global cooling is normal also, both will continue to occur. Instead of rationally looking into every possibility though, it seems we are quick to choose sides concerning AGW. The majority of the population does not know the difference between GW and AGW. With out a doubt these would effect the overall weather pattern, the question is are we smart enough, or have we had the smarts for long enough to accurately measure it and compare it against anything.

There are several reliable things to study the temperature of our climate in the past.
You are right when you say its important not to "choose a side",

BUT remember that every scientific academy, and 97% of the worlds climate scientists agree AGW is occuring.

The public opinion on what scientists claim/think is very misinformed. Its simple physics and when you study them in depth you dont have to choose a side, you simply are going with what the evidence says.

As far as superstition, you are right again, people will come to claim absurd patterns and ideas.

There have been tornado droughts in the plains before and they will happen again. A lack of tornadoes in itself means very very little in a years time.
The important thing to look at now is how increased CO2 in our atmosphere effects these climate issues, and to continue studies about the effects.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

As far as the the great GW debate, there is a thread on this forum (best debate I've seen anywhere - IMO) that is a truly a worthwhile read:
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/sho...ue-Al-Gore-for-Fraud&highlight=global+warming

AS far as what is happening on the Plains this year, this anomalous weather question is most likely solved by attributing it to the means and extremes of statistics as others have already pointed out. This year may be another poor year for chasing; but the chances of the following years becoming stellar in their own right will just increase.
Patience wins.

 

[Keith Wilson]

An interesting question (to me, anyhow...) regardless of your position on AGW, is what would sort of pattern would it take to convince an overwhelming majority that something truly 'unnatural' is occurring. I certainly don't think the current ridiculously warm pattern rises to that level, but what would? Suppose OK didnt see another tornado in Spring for the next 10 years, and the average temperature rose to the (current) 90+ degrees for May. Would people still look at decadal global circulations, longer term patterns in solar activity, etc? Or would they look elsewhere? Hard to say.

And therin lies the enigma. How long should we keep asking the same questions without coming to some sound conclusions? What will we, or can we, do about it either way?

 

[Eric Bucsela]

Here's an attempt to put some numbers behind the discussion.

Did a quick analysis of the SPC's tornado statistics from 1950 - 2008 to try to see how many "big" chase days there were each year during the season (May 1 - June 10). I defined "big" arbitrarily as any day (afternoon to early evening) in Tornado Alley (-105 to -95 deg longitude; 32 to 42 deg latitude) meeting at least one of the following conditions:

(1) twenty or more tornadoes reported, and/or
(2) at least one significant tornado (F2 or stronger), and/or
(3) at least one large tornado (>300 yards wide).

Lots of interannual variability as people have noted, but there looks to be a downward trend. I think this trend is at least qualitatively robust w/resp to my chosen criteria, but need to check this**. Anyway, seems like the 2012 season is consistent with the decline. Here's the graphic:



**EDIT My criteria for numbers of torns and width were too restrictive, so this graph is really only showing decline in F2 or greater tornadoes since the 1950s. Tried to fix this in my post below.

 

[Joshua Nall]

The public opinion on what scientists claim/think is very misinformed. Its simple physics and when you study them in depth you dont have to choose a side, you simply are going with what the evidence says.

There is plenty of evidence to convince me otherwise. It is a hypothesis after all. I could post links but I’m done with any substantial talk about it per request of ST management.

I'm not sure, but probably around 97 percent of scientist believe you came from a monkey also. That don't make it true

Concerning this boring pattern, maybe the temp of the globe will be down some infinitesimal amount 10 years from now since there have not been as many of us running around in our CO2 emitting cars this year looking at the stupid clouds. Is that really necessary? Besides quit driving as much and living without lights and AC… Chasers could quit eating celebratory steaks. Seriously. Anyone who is a preacher of AGW is a hypocrite if they do not refrain from eating beef (search… cow methane global warming).

What gets me is there are few that actually have works to prove their faith, they just gripe about other people not “believingâ€￾. They preach the doctrine well is all. I "conserve" more than they do... just because I believe it is a good idea and I'm tight. Bowing out of the GW discussion now… our posts may not be here in the morning anyway...

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

Perhaps it is a downward trend statistically for the years you compiled. Thanks for that effort Eric - BTW. But 2008 and 2011 are also tied for 1st place for the number of tornadoes in a single year. If the scope of the statistics are held to the last 20 years; that trend may look favorable in the other direction. Not entirely sure of that.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

Perhaps it is a downward trend statistically for the years you compiled. Thanks for that effort Eric - BTW. But 2008 and 2011 are also tied for 1st place for the number of tornadoes in a single year. If the scope of the statistics are held to the last 20 years; that trend may look favorable in the other direction. Not entirely sure of that.

Thanks for your comments. If you count total number of tornadoes, the trend is upwards, but I was hoping tornado days might be a more robust statistic, since the increasing number of eyeballs in the Plains is likely helping to boost the annual torn count over the decades. And no matter how many people are watching, you won't get a big torn day unless there are big torns.

Interestingly, if I don't filter for large events, I do get a slight upward trend in torn days as well. But again, I'd be suspicious of this resulting from just having a lot more people out there spotting the small random torns. It is also interesting that with the criteria I chose, even 2008 just appears as a recent blip in the overall downward trend - it doesn't really stand out in the historical record for chaseable years.

 

[Shane Adams]

Administrative Note: A few off-topic posts have been removed, so hopefully we can carry on with an otherwise excellent discussion about the seemingly torpid synoptic pattern as of late.

Ah, that explains why I can't find my post. Not really seeing how it wasn't relative, as conversations begin on a certain topic and naturally, will offshoot into related topics which may not be tied directly to the original but are relative nonetheless....at least IMO.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

The graphic I posted yesterday really just showed the decrease in the reported >F2 torns (criteria for width and number/day were too strict).

Here's a more complete picture. In each year since 1950, I'm counting the numbers of days between May 1 and June 10 in the Plains for -105 < longitude < -95 and 32 < latitude < 42 deg.

(1) Total number of tornado days:


(2) Number of days with multiple tornadoes (n > 9)


(3) Number of days with strong tornadoes (F > F3):


(4) Number of days with large tornadoes (w > 300 yards wide):


(5) Number of "big" days (n > 9, and/or F > F3, and/or w > 300):


Only the >F3 tornadoes show a decline. The rest are slightly increasing. How much of this is reporting/sample bias is an open question, but check out the article by Chuck Doswell posted by mkavulich earlier in this thread:

http://www.ejssm.org/ojs/index.php/ejssm/article/viewArticle/26/27

EDIT: Increased thresholds on n, w, and F.

 

[ahaberlie]

There was a paper presented from the University of Wisconsin that suggested a warmer planet can influence polar/subtropical jet superposition and actually increase severe weather in the U.S.

The arguments were the northward migration of the intertropical convergence zone was hastened and caused a strengthened jet stream (superposition of P & ST jets).. also suggested was an increasing fall maxima of severe weather with a lengthened eastern pacific hurricane season.. which can also cause jet stream superposition.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I have been chasing storms for more than 30 years, and I have NEVER seen such a low-tornado May, at least in Kansas, as this year. And, going hand-in-hand, Topeka has .95 of an inch in rainfall for the month, and we average over 3 inches.

It's definitely a slow May, but it's similar to May 2009 and May 2006 in terms of chase days and tornado numbers (just considering May in Kansas, that is).

 

[TJKLECKNER]

Any possibility that the numbers are increasing just due to the fact that technology is better at spotting/counting tornadoes and chaser numbers have increased each year since 1950? In 1950, a F-0 type tornado might have touched down in a field and could have been chalked up to wind damage. Now days every little F-0 tornado is reported by multiple people, multiple times, and is up on YouTube within the hour.

 

[rdale]

That's why he counted tornado days, not tornados.