"TORNADO EMERGENCY"

[Darrin Rasberry]

Here's a corollary thought to all of this: if there is no tornado emergency official warning that separates the Greensburgs from a "tornado capable of producing," then why are there official "PDS" tornado watches? Isn't every tornado watch a particularly dangerous situation? The question of PDS seems to me to be analogous to a TE for an individual tornado. Attendant to that question is another question: why put descriptive text of the actual storm at all? I've seen some texts say that this storm is capable of producing a violent tornado. Given aspects that are still not completely understood, doesn't every tornado warned storm without an actual confirmed tornado on the ground have the capability of producing a large and violent one? And if one is on the ground and appears to be weak, doesn't it have the capability to become strong at any time? It's difficult to see where the line should be drawn IMO, especially given the official "PDS watch" to unofficial "Tornado Emergency" analogy.

On the other hand, if you believe in tornado emergencies, shouldn't you believe in severe thunderstorm emergencies? Certainly a 100+mph straight-line-wind derecho event will be as deadly and destructive as a weak tornado; even though the wind mode is linear as opposed to circulatory, we're still talking about a brief hurricane here. Shouldn't a distinction arise, then, with severe thunderstorms that are barely capable of penny sized hail as opposed to severe thunderstorms that belong to a rampaging derecho? Why not make a SVR emergency if you promote a TOR emergency?

Food for thought from both sides of this discussion. I'm still on the fence about it.

 

[David Drummond]

The question then becomes, "What is a populated place?"

By definition, a single person make a place populated. If you mean "heavily populated" the question then becomes, "What makes a place heavily populated?"

Just personally, I would think a confirmed tornado within or just about to move in to the bounds of any city limits with enough population to make it a disaster... I don't know what exactly?

Obviously, a few houses hit doesn't really make it a "disaster" from an emergency response standpoint, while wiping through a town at a few blocks wide would.

This was brought up in relation to Manhattan, KS though, which I surely think is large enough (an given how strong it did end up being) completely warranted the on-air mets use of the term.

The odds of another Greensburg type tornado, within any of our lifetimes, is so far out there it might as well be nearly non-existant. I am 42 and don't know of another tornado that just completely wiped a town on that level in my lifetime. The Hallam, NE tornado might have been on that level, but the town wasn't that large. Point is, tornadoes of this size and strength are incredibly rare and we (hopefully) aren't likely to witness another one in the next few decades I don't think.

That said, I can think of quite a few tornado incidents which IMO would have warranted the "tornado emergency" verbage. The Moore/OKC tornado in 1999 of course comes to mind. How about the 1979 Wichita Falls tornado. The on-air met used that the other night, he knew a tornado was in the city doing damage at the time. You could barely see it, how do you know if it's going to be a block wide EF4 drillbit, or another OKC vaccuum in situations like that. I think he completely made the right call and did his duty to impress upon the viewers that this was indeed serious and not just "another tornado warning".

 

[beaudodson]

From an emergency managers point of view this whole discussion is frustrating. Now we have people who think that if a tornado emergency isn't issued then perhaps it isn't a "serious or large" tornado - just one of those "regular tornadoes".

Oh dear.

Manhattan, Kansas had an EF4 tornado hit the city with just a tornado warning. Now people wonder why there wasn't a tornado emergency issued? I wonder how many "regular" people care? I would love to see some surveys on this question. Does the public even know that tornado emergencies exist? I know the chaser community is well aware of the "intense" wording from time to time.

How long until the "Ultra Tornado Emergency Warning" is needed? Super Duper Whopper Radar is showing what could be a large and ultra-dangerous tornado. Regular tornado warnings are not enough? Regular tornado watches are not enough?

I don't care for tornado emergencies (and I know they have worked in some cases) or PDS boxes. I said that already, though. Nobody asked me on a survey yet - so I guess just make a mark on the chalkboard (nay category) - for now.

 

[David Drummond]

I am wondering if any Emergency Management in the larger communities has ever done a severe weather survey of their community, just to get a feel for people's reactions to Thunderstorm or Tornado Warnings or even how they would react to a "regular" tornado warning as opposed to a "tornado emergency".

We all know, at least in the plains, most non chaser folks are pretty complacent about tornado warnings. How many times have any of you driven through a town, tornado warning in effect, sirens blaring, and everyone is standing out side their house looking at the clouds and waving at you as you go by? I see it nearly every time. What wording is needed to get the average populous to immediately think, oh ****, this is serious?

EDIT TO ADD: I know in certain communities that were directly affected by tornadoes (two that I know of for sure that I talked directly to people that live there) are Hallam, NE and Greensburg, KS. Folks in those communities most definitely take every tornado warning seriously these days, many have even learned to go to the SPC site and watch the graphics to see what kind of a risk they are in for the day. Their situational awareness for severe weather has increased 1000% because of their own experiences with tornadoes.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

Point is, tornadoes of this size and strength are incredibly rare and we (hopefully) aren't likely to witness another one in the next few decades I don't think.

I'm really busy today and I'll come back to this later, but for now... (it might need to be broken off to a new thread)

We really don't know how many tornadoes of the size and strength of Greensburg actually occur, thus we don't know how rare these tornadoes are. What is rare is the number of ratings of EF5. Damage rating does not equal tornado strength. While it is true that a tornado rated EF5 can be assumed to be very intense, a tornado rated EF2-3 but remained in rural areas cannot be assumed to be less intense...it just didn't hit anything that can be rated.

The EF (and F) scale is a damage scale. We can try to infer what wind speeds were, but they are just that, inferences - not facts.

Personally, I think there have been several tornadoes this year that could have been rated higher than they were and I wouldn't be surprised to see their EF rating change before entering StormData.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

The odds of another Greensburg type tornado, within any of our lifetimes, is so far out there it might as well be nearly non-existant. I am 42 and don't know of another tornado that just completely wiped a town on that level in my lifetime. The Hallam, NE tornado might have been on that level, but the town wasn't that large. Point is, tornadoes of this size and strength are incredibly rare and we (hopefully) aren't likely to witness another one in the next few decades I don't think.

Didn't you mention once that Jarrell was the worst you'd seen, or do you mean the optimum combination of damage and area w/Greensburg? Not exactly on topic but a definite curiosity.

 

[David Drummond]

Didn't you mention once that Jarrell was the worst you'd seen, or do you mean the optimum combination of damage and area w/Greensburg? Not exactly on topic but a definite curiosity.

It was the damage per site I had seen at that time. That was a long time ago though. Jarrell, while very intense, was a much small tornado. I believe with the Greensburg tornado, even had it say only produced EF3 damage, the huge coverage area of potential debris made it just as deadly and destructive. Collateral debris damage had to extensive in that tornado.

 

[Mike Smith]

Yes, Manhattan has been rated EF-4.

Now consider: This EF-4 hit a town of 45,000 in darkness and there were no fatalities. People took shelter and took other actions to protect themselves in spite of the fact no "tornado emergency" was issued. To me, this is verification that "tornado emergency" is not needed.

I used to be a fan of PDS tornado watches. I now believe they are not useful. Greensburg was not a PDS. June 11 (Boy Scouts, Salina, Manhattan, Chapman, etc.) was not a PDS. When the criteria for verification was changed to two or more ≥F2 tornadoes, it seems they have drifted from their original purpose and, to me, seem to have marginal value.

One other thing that I believe will interest readers of stormtrack: Driving back from Omaha this afternoon, I stopped to check email at the McDonalds at Wamego, the first major town east of Manhattan. Without revealing my profession, I overheard one of the town's storm spotters describe what she saw that night. She correctly used the term "rotating wall cloud" and talked (correctly, if my memory of the radar is correct) how the system later evolved into a bow echo. The was "holding court" at a table in the restaurant and telling two people about the storm.

This is amazing: In 1975 meteorologists did not know a "bow echo" existed. Now, a non-meteorologist storm spotter in Wamego, Kansas, knows how to correctly combine radar and visual cues to accurately describe storms.

 

[rdale]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
457 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

MSC051-163-092345-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0274.000000T0000Z-081209T2345Z/
HOLMES MS-YAZOO MS-
457 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
YAZOO AND SOUTHWESTERN HOLMES COUNTIES...

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

AT 457 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR YAZOO CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BENTON BY 505 PM CST...
MIDWAY AND EDEN BY 515 PM CST...
COXBURG AND TOLARVILLE BY 525 PM CST...
BROZVILLE AND EBENEZER BY 530 PM CST...
8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOWARD BY 535 PM CST...
FRANKLIN BY 540 PM CST...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS

 

[Danny Neal]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
457 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

MSC051-163-092345-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0274.000000T0000Z-081209T2345Z/
HOLMES MS-YAZOO MS-
457 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
YAZOO AND SOUTHWESTERN HOLMES COUNTIES...

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

I am joining the party late tonight so I don't know much of what happened from beyond noon. Was this justified/confirmed in actuality?

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

I am joining the party late tonight so I don't know much of what happened from beyond noon. Was this justified/confirmed in actuality?

I have not seen a lot of information, but what I have seen from three TV stations reporting from the area, there are two damaged houses and some trees and a sign down laying in the road. From these three stations' reports, it appears the initial reports may be pretty well exaggerated stating the amount of destruction and a very large tornado. With the reports, I can not blame the weather service, but probably the person reporting it from the field, passing on this info if it was not really this bad.

 

[Shane Adams]

IMO a Tornado Emergency shouldn't be an attempt to "guess" what could be coming to get a jump on the warning process. It should be like it was on May 3, 1999 and May 4, 2007, when there is a confirmed, large tornado that is established, has been established, and is heading for a populated area.

When that statement popped up yesterday, I started asking everyone who was arm-chairing: who saw it, where its exact location was, how wide was it estimated to be, and how much damage had occurred already...nobody had any answers. Because it was dark is no excuse for the lack of spotter confirmation before issuing the TE (after all it was dark on the Greensburg night). For all the warning statements saying spotters were tracking a "large, extremely dangerous tornado", I saw nothing in the LSRs except damage reports, which were used to assume tornadoes. I saw one that was something about a tornado in an open field, but nothing came across the wire about a visually-confirmed large damaging tornado.

I think the Tornado Emergency is a great tool, but it's been abused to the point now where it's losing its credibility (at least outside the traditional Plains/Alley region). Tornado Emergencies are like the old TVS algorithm back pre-1998: you're never going to get much lead-time on them, but the upswing of this is when you do have one, it's for real. In other words, the sh*t should already be hitting the fan (confirmed) before a TE is issued. Assuming there might be a large, damaging tornado before legitimate, visual confirmation is abusing the process IMO.

One thing I've noticed though, is now any time a tornado is reported near a populated area, it's automatically a "large, and extremely dangerous tornado" in the warning statement. I guess there's no harm in that if there's actually a tornado there, but IMO it's misleading when the reported tornado was a few miles outside of town, missed the town, and was gone by the time the warning statement (which was prompted by a field report) is heard (May 23 near Dighton, KS). But as long as the TE is reserved for the real deal, I see no true harm in the heavy-wording of the basic tornado warning text.

 

[rdale]

8 minutes later the warning was canceled for Yazoo Co, and the text changed to say that it was only a radar-indicated tornado and that the STORM produced damaged near Yazoo City :

WWUS54 KJAN 092324
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
524 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

MSC163-092333-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0274.000000T0000Z-081209T2345Z/
YAZOO MS-
523 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL YAZOO COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3301 8994 3295 9012 3300 9025 3313 9021
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 228DEG 37KT 3300 9016

$$

MSC051-092345-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0274.000000T0000Z-081209T2345Z/
HOLMES MS-
523 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL HOLMES COUNTY...

AT 523 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COXBURG...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THORNTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING DAMAGE NEAR YAZOO CITY...TAKE COVER NOW!

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BROZVILLE BY 530 PM CST...
FRANKLIN BY 535 PM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3301 8994 3295 9012 3300 9025 3313 9021
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 228DEG 37KT 3300 9016

$$

CME

LSRs:

0450 PM HAIL 2 S YAZOO CITY 32.83N 90.41W
12/09/2008 E1.75 INCH YAZOO MS STORM CHASER

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 2 MILES SOUTH OF YAZOO CITY
ON OLD HWY 49.

0450 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S YAZOO CITY 32.83N 90.41W
12/09/2008 E60.00 MPH YAZOO MS STORM CHASER

POWER LINES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

0459 PM TORNADO 3 SE YAZOO CITY 32.83N 90.38W
12/09/2008 YAZOO MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN ACROSS HWY 49 AND LARGE SIGN BLOWN DOWN

0500 PM TORNADO 3 E YAZOO CITY 32.86N 90.36W
12/09/2008 YAZOO MS STORM CHASER

STORM CHASER REPORTS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE ALONG HWY 16 EAST
OF YAZOO CITY. HOMES DAMAGED...OUTBUILDING
OBLITERATED...NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS ROAD...BUSINESS
DAMAGED WITH WINDOWS BLOWN OUT. COULD NOT GO ANY FARTHER
EAST ON ROAD DUE TO TREES ACROSS THE HIGHWAY.

0500 PM TORNADO 1 SSE YAZOO CITY 32.85N 90.40W
12/09/2008 YAZOO MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND ARE BLOCKING OLD BENTON ROAD.
TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 3 AND
BROADWAY.

0517 PM TORNADO COXBURG 33.00N 90.21W
12/09/2008 HOLMES MS LAW ENFORCEMENT



TREES DOWN AND A HOUSE DAMAGED IN COXBURG.

Report from WJTV.com -

In Yazoo County, at least 575 homes are in the dark.
At least two homes have major damage and several trees are down.



Report from WATV.com -


JACKSON, Miss. -- Two Yazoo County homes were damaged by a possible tornado on Tuesday, emergency officials said.
One of the homes was completely destroyed, Mississippi Emergency Management officials said. Both homes were on Old Benton Road. No injuries were reported.A Yazoo County deputy said he spotted a tornado near the Jonestown area Tuesday.
The area was under a tornado warning from about 4:30 p.m. to 6:30 p.m. on Tuesday.Officials said that several trees were down on Old Benton, Tinsley and Crump roads. Trees were also down on Highway 16. A large sign was blocking Highway 49 and Witherspoon, according to Mississippi Emergency Management officials.There was also significant damage reported in Holmes County. One home was heavily damaged and several trees were down, officials said.There were also reports of hail in Yazoo County.

 

[Mike Smith]

All tornado warnings are 'emergencies.'

That is my first objection to tornado "emergencies."

Second: As a science, we do not have the skill to do these consistently well as we are increasingly proving (i.e., yesterday).

Third: There the possibility that we may 'train' people in ways we do not expect.

Earlier in this thread, I discuss the June Manhattan, KS tornado -- the type of tornado that used to kill 100+ (F-4 striking after most people have retired). Actual death toll? Zero. Number of tornado emergency messages issued? Zero.

I have spent two years (for a book manuscript) researching the warning system. It works remarkably well at very low cost to society. These variations (tornado emergency, attaching probabilities to tornado warnings discussed in Norman last week) have little chance of improving the system and a significant chance of mucking it up.

Mike

 

[Shane Adams]

Earlier in this thread, I discuss the June Manhattan, KS tornado -- the type of tornado that used to kill 100+ (F-4 striking after most people have retired). Actual death toll? Zero. Number of tornado emergency messages issued? Zero.

First of all - that's a wonderful thing.

But the Manhattan tornado back in June wasn't on the scale of a Greensburg 5-4-07 or a Moore/OKC 5-3-99, which is what seperates it from these two events.

I have spent two years (for a book manuscript) researching the warning system. It works remarkably well at very low cost to society. These variations (tornado emergency, attaching probabilities to tornado warnings discussed in Norman last week) have little chance of improving the system and a significant chance of mucking it up.

I agree with you 100% on areas outside of the Plains/Tornado Alley, where visibility is often-times hampered and many of the most severe events take place at night (in already-difficult viewing areas). The key to a Tornado Emergency is having reliable ground truth, not only to confirm the existence of an actual tornado, but to confirm its longevity, severity, size, and track towards a populated area. Getting a glimpse of a tornado once or twice through lightning strikes in hilly, tree-laden areas isn't enough IMO. And I don't think it's always possible to visually confirm a tornado to the degree I mentioned above (fighting the viewing issues in the areas east of the Mississippi/gulf coast etc). This is nobody's fault but the terrian.

However in the Plains, where viewing is considerably better (even at night in many cases), you have the most experienced spotters in the country, and you have the most chaser coverage on any given storm, I think the Tornado Emergency works quite well when it's used_in_the_right_circumstance, as it was on the Greensburg night as well as the Moore/OKC event (which is when the TE was created, on the spot). You can't convince me the TE on either of those two events (1) didn't enhance the urgency of the situation to the public and (2) 'mucked up' the system.

The Tornado Emergency as it was applied 5-3-99 and 5-4-07 is genius. What's discredited it as a whole is the abuse it's been getting outside of the Plains areas, usually on nocturnal events that were radar-indicated and threatening a large city. Even in this scenario, without established, continous visual confirmation (not just spotter Joe getting a glimpse one time with lightning he thought was a big tornado), it's abuse of the product IMO.