"TORNADO EMERGENCY"

[Justin Wiley]

Two examples of tornado emergencies issued in rural areas.


163
WWUS53 KEAX 122215
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

MOC159-122230-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-060312T2230Z/
PETTIS MO-
412 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...TORNADO EMERGENCY EASTERN PETTIS COUNTY...
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN PETTIS COUNTY
UNTIL 43 PM...

AT 409 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HALF MILE
WIDE TORNADO. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION!! WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTION HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF GREEN RIDGE...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SEDALIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SEDALIA BY 420 PM CST.
SMITHTON BY 425 PM CST.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO
SOFTBALL SIZE IS EXPECTED IN SEDALIA.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3862 9354 3851 9350 3851 9328 3854 9328
3855 9307 3873 9307 3874 9326 3870 9335

$$

BOOKBINDER

895
WWUS53 KSGF 130343
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
943 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

MOC039-130430-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-060313T0430Z/
CEDAR MO-
943 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CEDAR COUNTY UNTIL 1030 PM
CST...
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE CITY OF STOCKTON AND CEDAR COUNTY...

AT 940 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CONFOIRMED TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF STOCKTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE...
NEAR STOCKTON BY 950 PM CST.

GET IN YOUR TORNADO SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

THE TOWNS OF JERICO SPRINGS...WAGONER...UMBER VIEW HEIGHTS AND ARNICA
ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO.

MOBILE HOMES ARE EASILY DESTROYED BY TORNADIC WINDS AND SHOULD BE
EVACUATED FOR A STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT
IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR
HANDS.

LAT...LON 3759 9404 3758 9363 3773 9362 3783 9364
3777 9385

What I meant of "rural" was basically open farmland and unincorporated communities, which still have people in them.

Sedalia and Stockton are both county seats, with Stockton's population near 2,000 and Sedalia's around 20,000.

Thanks for the pulling those up though. Really interesting.

 

[Eric Baker]

Okay, I just think that the way I can say it is this...

Tornado warnings do not elicit the type of urgency that they need to.
Tornado Emergency text may help get the point across.
If the term tornado emergency is removed, the warning reads nearly the same.

TE Warning: WWUS54 KOUN 082217 CCA SVSOKC
OKC027-087-109-082245-

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
517 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA...

...TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR CLEVELAND...MCCLAIN AND OKLAHOMA COUNTIES...

AT 515 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS IN THE CITY OF MOORE...MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST OF 35 MPH. PERSONS ON THE EAST SIDE OF MOORE...AND AREAS EAST AND NORTH FROM THERE...SHOULD BE TAKING THEIR TORNADO
PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY!

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS IN MOORE....SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CITY...TINKER AIR FORCE
BASE...MIDWEST CITY...AND CHOCTAW...SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN A
BASEMENT... SAFE ROOM... OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR NOW TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE!

"Regular warning": BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* UNTIL 1015 PM CST

* AT 911 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO! THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 24 MILES WEST OF WATTS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WATTS.

A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND! IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER NOW!

IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

 

[Mike Smith]

Tornado warnings do not elicit the type of urgency that they need to.

Based on what?

I have broken down Greensburg. You were kind enough to demonstrate the amazing decrease in tornado fatalities and posted numbers.

What scientific evidence do you have that tornado warnings "do not elicit the type of urgency they need to"?

 

[Rob Satkus]

Based on what?

What scientific evidence do you have that tornado warnings "do not elicit the type of urgency they need to"?

It may not be scientific, but just check the roads on many (most) tornado warnings, especially in the plains...look and see how many "locals" are cramming the roads, with kids in tow, coolers full of beer, lawn chairs. People are running out with their cameras now instead of taking shelter.

RS

 

[Mike Smith]

It may not be scientific, but just check the roads on many (most) tornado warnings, especially in the plains...look and see how many "locals" are cramming the roads, with kids in tow, coolers full of beer, lawn chairs. People are running out with their cameras now instead of taking shelter.

"Most" tornado warnings? I have chased numerous times over the last two years (as recently as Tuesday evening in Sumner Co., KS) and have never seen the behavior you describe. I am not saying it doesn't occur, but I am certain it does not occur with most or even many tornado warnings.

I restarted this thread because we continue to issue a discretionary message that I believe is doing more harm than good. Over the years this thread has run, I have requested evidence that a TE tipped the balance to get people into shelter. So far, no one has provided any.

On the other hand, Eric posted raw (not adjusted for population) numbers showing the dramatic drop in deaths due to conventional warnings. The death rate is down by more than 90%. Regardless of some stupid behavior by a few individuals it is silly to contend that tornado warnings are not taken seriously. Otherwise, we would not have seen the decrease in deaths.

Finally, in the two plus years since Greensburg, we have not had a single TE that has been an unqualified success. On the other hand, we have had numerous busts as recently as last night. Shouldn't we be learning something from this?

 

[Rob Satkus]

"Most" tornado warnings? I have chased numerous times over the last two years (as recently as Tuesday evening in Sumner Co., KS) and have never seen the behavior you describe. I am not saying it doesn't occur, but I am certain it does not occur with most or even many tornado warnings.

Maybe it's because I am mostly limited to chasing Oklahoma for job reasons, but I have seen it NUMEROUS times down here...it's to the point of ridiculous. May 24th, 2008 we saw a lot of non chasers with cars full of families following chasers and emergency vehicles, May 29th, 2004 near El Reno, Hwy 81 was lined with people who were obviously not chasers, standing on the tops of their vehicles, shirts off, beers in hand in the middle of an intense lightning event. Same type thing a few days earlier near Frederick OK. I have been chasing for a local tv station and until we took down our magnetic signs on the vehicle, it was very common to have locals follow us around. The above examples are but a few of many. Every time we go out unless it is a marginal set up, we see all kinds of locals who feel the need to get out and get their YouTube moment...even at night. On April 26th of this year at 1:30 in the morning near Kremlin, Hwy 81 was packed with onlookers watching the large tornado to the north and when the RFD hit with 70-80mph winds chaos ensued...so yes, "Most" tornado warnings, especially down here. If you are that certain it's not the case, chase down here.
Regarding the TE, I am on the fence. I look forward to your book on this subject, (unless I read that wrong in your other post). I personally don't feel it's a bad thing, although it may be overused at times. I am curious, how many TE have been issued compared to tornado warnings as a whole? Is it really that large a number to make such a big deal out of it? And isn't one of the main points of a TE to alert first responders of a potentially significant, damaging event? So they can be proactive instead of reactive? I fully understand that some have been issued when there wasn't credible ground truth and that certainly needs to be addressed.

Rob

 

[Eric Baker]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lone_Grove,_Oklahoma
Lone Grove, OK - Feb 10, 2009
Of 114 homes and mobile homes destroyed 8 people died. They had plenty of warning time.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/fataltorn.html
Feb 5 2007 SUMNER-MACON CO. TN 22 deaths F3
This tornado tracked for over 50 miles from TN into KY. Most of the fatalities (13) occurred in Williams, just northest of Lafayette in Macon County, TN

I could not find a population for Williams, but its not very big.

 

[Mike Gibson]

When I say "at what cost" to the current tornado warnings, I am referring to the fact we are (likely inadvertently) "conditioning" people to expect a tornado emergency if it is really bad.

I don't understand why this:

*** TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR AUSTIN ***
 
TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO IN DRIPPING SPRINGS.
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE CITY OF AUSTIN IS IN THE PATH
OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE IN AUSTIN SHOULD TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

is such a bad thing while this:

TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO IN DRIPPING SPRINGS.
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE CITY OF AUSTIN IS IN THE PATH
OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE IN AUSTIN SHOULD TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

apparently is fine.

Why do the two words "TORNADO EMERGENCY" condition people to ignore non-TE TORs but including tornado reports+paths in the text apparently do not condition people to ignore TORs without reports?

 

[Mike Smith]

Mike,

Your question is a good one. I am going to answer in two ways. First, I would ask you to (and any other readers coming into the thread) to read my post #184.

My second point is that the "tornado emergency" declaration is unnecessary and could be misleading. All tornado warnings are emergencies. By declaring certain tornado situations an "emergency" you are, de facto, saying that the rest of the warnings are not emergencies. I don't think that is a message we want to send, particularly when we don't have the scientific skill needed to do this consistently well.

Mike

 

[Brett Adair]

I think the biggest thing is that we need some clarification on what the NWS wants to define this wording as. To us, it's apparent what these statements mean. However, the general public would have to be re-educated on the importance of the advisory, watch, warning, and emergency.

I think the word "emergency" is used to promote the "is occurring" phrase within a warning instead of the "imminent" wording. I believe that we will soon see a situational guidance come out labeling how to use the emergency wording. Probably depending on spotter reports, atmospheric conditions, population density, etc. We will soon see. Personally, I like the wording and believe that it has proved helpful.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Mike,
All tornado warnings are emergencies. By declaring certain tornado situations an "emergency" you are, de facto, saying that the rest of the warnings are not emergencies.
Mike

I disagree. If there is a large tornado in Cherry County, NE miles from any residence, the accompanying tornado warning isn't exactly an emergency. What is the verification rate for tornado warnings? A damaging tornado on the ground moving directly toward a population center is certainly an emergency, an unverified warning or tornado away from a population center isn't exactly an emergency.

How many "tornado emergencies" are issued during tornado warnings? Likely much less than 1% of all warnings.

Mike, since you have such a problem with the TE, the burden of proof should be in your hands...YOU provide scientific evidence that a TE does NOT put people into faster action to find shelter.

 

[Mike Smith]

tornado away from a population center isn't exactly an emergency.

Mike, since you have such a problem with the TE, the burden of proof should be in your hands...YOU provide scientific evidence that a TE does NOT put people into faster action to find shelter.

Scott,

1. It is certainly an emergency if it is your home and family that are threatened. I don't think the lives of people in cities are more valuable than those in rural areas.

2. Ah, no. You cannot prove a negative which is what you are asking me to do. However, I have demonstrated (read entire thread):

a) Tornado warnings are extremely effective (without TE's)
b) The vast majority of TE's have been busts.
c) My multiple challenges to demonstrate a positive (i.e., people who heard the TE and went to shelter specifically because they heard it) have gone unanswered.

This should be proof enough.

Mike

 

[beaudodson]

By the same train of thought as the tornado emergency we also need severe thunderstorm emergencies for severe thunderstorms with winds greater than 80 mph. In addition to the STE we need flash flood emergencies (FFE) for serious flash flooding.

The whole "emergency" wording is ridiculous. I agree with all of the posters who say that psychology dictates that people are not going to take tornado warnings as serious as tornado emergencies if they continue to be used on a regular or semi-regular basis.

Simply stating in the warning that a tornado is imminent should be enough to get people to take action. If it isn't then the person doesn't really care to begin with.

I realize there are one or two excellent examples of where a tornado emergency was used properly (if there is a proper use). But, does that justify using them repeatedly with numerous busts? I don't think so.

IF National Weather Service Offices knows a large tornado is moving into a city or town then why not just state in the warning (at the beginning header) "A LARGE TORNADO IS MOVING INTO ST LOUIS - THIS TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTERS - TAKE SHELTER NOW"

If that doesn't get you to take shelter then what will? Perhaps OEM needs to come to your house and help you to the basement?

Once people get used to busted tornado emergencies then I guess we will need super tornado emergencies.

Where does this process end? Years ago people would have laughed at the thought of tornado emergencies. Now they have being used on a regular basis.

If I am at home (and pretend I don't know anything about weather) and I hear the local television meteorologist say that a tornado warning is in effect for my county but a tornado emergency is in effect for the neighboring county then I am going to assume the threat is not as high for my county. What other conclusion would there be?

 

[Eric Baker]

I have a question that may seem somewhat off topic, but it isn't. Is a doppler indicated tornado as much of an emergency as a confirmed tornado (in the public's eye). I think it is not. In Oklahoma City I have friends that know nothing about storms say, "Oh its doppler indicated, its not gonna happen." Furthermore, is a tornado emergency more of a statement than a confirmed tornado, I say yes. Mike Smith sites May 3, 1999 and Greensburg as "the only clear cut successes. Mike, are May 8, 2003 and May 9, 2003 failures? As you say, they are. How about tornado warning verification rates? Lets' take Mikes word, and say that out of the 80 TE bulletins posted 2 were successful (have you done research on each bulletin Mike, the website is on one of my posts). That gives us a false alarm rate (FAR) of 97.5%. That being said, lets look at 2005 (the only year I could get NWS verification numbers for). In 2005 the NWS issued 4274 tornado warnings, 975 of those warnings were verified. Giving us a FAR of 78.6%. So are tornado warnings a failure?

 

[Mike Smith]

Is a doppler indicated tornado as much of an emergency as a confirmed tornado (in the public's eye). I think it is not.

So are tornado warnings a failure?

#1. The public doesn't know the difference, they just know the sirens are going off and the TV programming is weather bulletins. Our friends, who are in touch with weather lingo, might.

#2. I have stated my opinion on this numerous times. Are you reading my posts?

Yes, the FAR on tornado warnings is too high. Why do we want to make it higher with TE's? I hope Vortex II is able to help us with the FAR. I believe that is a bigger problem than "lead time."