"TORNADO EMERGENCY"

Even if used in what most would consider to be an acceptable circumstance, I would bet that 95% of the general public doesn't understand that the use of the wording "tornado emergency" is supposed to be indicative of a more severe situation.

Its use probably doesn't motivate that many more people to take the warning seriously than would otherwise, so the argument about whether or not it was warranted probably affected a small segment of the populace anyhow.
 
Even if used in what most would consider to be an acceptable circumstance, I would bet that 95% of the general public doesn't understand that the use of the wording "tornado emergency" is supposed to be indicative of a more severe situation.

Its use probably doesn't motivate that many more people to take the warning seriously than would otherwise, so the argument about whether or not it was warranted probably affected a small segment of the populace anyhow.

I don't know about that. Half of the public doesn't know the difference between a watch and a warning, but I would think emergency would get the message across at least a little better.
 
I don't know about that. Half of the public doesn't know the difference between a watch and a warning, but I would think emergency would get the message across at least a little better.

Does the general public actually listen to the entire warning statement word for word? If not, it won't make much of a difference.

I would be interested in seeing some non-anecdotal evidence in the future if anyone decided to study the social response and desensitization of severe weather warnings.
 
Even if used in what most would consider to be an acceptable circumstance, I would bet that 95% of the general public doesn't understand that the use of the wording "tornado emergency" is supposed to be indicative of a more severe situation.

Its use probably doesn't motivate that many more people to take the warning seriously than would otherwise, so the argument about whether or not it was warranted probably affected a small segment of the populace anyhow.

Sure it does, when an on-air meteorologist is covering severe weather and comes on the air to say, "They have just issued a tornado emergency...this is very rare" you bet it does. When they go on the air and say it a different time, and then only an EF-1 is confirmed the day after with minor damage, the wording/effect is diluted. Not to mention credibility is lost when "crying wolf" is portrayed by those calling the shots, including media outlets relaying the information to the public.
 
Sure it does, when an on-air meteorologist is covering severe weather and comes on the air to say, "They have just issued a tornado emergency...this is very rare" you bet it does. When they go on the air and say it a different time, and then only an EF-1 is confirmed the day after with minor damage, the wording/effect is diluted. Not to mention credibility is lost when "crying wolf" is portrayed by those calling the shots, including media outlets relaying the information to the public.

Your scenario is assuming that most meteorologists take that approach and reach an even wider audience. What about people who are listening to NOAA or getting their warnings from radio stations or even second hand sources? TV mets can make the same statements if they know a tornado is on the ground without the TE wording in the warning.
 
But do people take a huge amount of notice if they get a tornado warning over NOAA radio, etc? Some obviously do, but I would bet that quite a few would think "oh we get warnings a few times a year - nothing will come of it".
 
Yes Dick, I do agree that a tornado emergency will lose its purpose if a tornado does minimal damage. Such case was the Great Bend, Kansas tornado on 5-5-07 and the Breckenridge, Texas tornado on 4-9-08. Now correct me if I am wrong but I think the Great Bend tornado lifted before entering the town and the Breckenridge tornado only side swiped the town. I am sure though a TE was justifiable because had these tornadoes had hit both towns dead on, they may have been capable of EF3+ damage. NWS was probably was playing it safe even though it may have confused the public when there was no tornado or minor damage. Also Paul K. I think Greensburg got a tornado emergency but Parkersburg did not. The tornado in Parkersburg was not easily identifiable because it was rain-wrapped. Even though Parkersburg did not receive an actual TE, the NWS in Des Moines mentioned it being rain-wrapped and that this storm was extremely dangerous and life-threatening and capable of producing strong or violent tornadoes. Those words seem to be just as serious as the word tornado emergency.
 
I think the Great Bend tornado lifted before entering the town and the Breckenridge tornado only side swiped the town. I am sure though a TE was justifiable because had these tornadoes had hit both towns dead on, they may have been capable of EF3+ damage. ...

Even though Parkersburg did not receive an actual TE, the NWS in Des Moines mentioned it being rain-wrapped and that this storm was extremely dangerous and life-threatening and capable of producing strong or violent tornadoes. Those words seem to be just as serious as the word tornado emergency.

As a profession, we have zero skill at predicting very short term (seconds to less than 5 minutes) tornado behavior (whether it will lift or change directions). The science needed to insure quality TE's does not exist (i.e., knowing the storm will continue on its present path and hit a town dead-on). Even if it did the -88D does not sample the storm often enough to provide the data needed to apply the science.

We are sitting here, just a few months away from the 10th anniversary of the first "tornado emergency," and we have a grand total of two clear-cut successes, Greensburg and Moore.

We are now well into the double-digit number of "false alarm" TE messages. Every one of the false alarms hurts our credibility and risks "training" people that tornado warnings are less important than tornado "emergencies."

Shane, your comment about using the wording in the warning to convey an enhanced threat level is right on the money. It adds detail and credibility to the warnings which is what people should be paying attention to.

As some of us feared, TE's have the potential to backfire as they did on Wednesday. Lets work on making tornado warnings the best they can be.

Mike
 
This recent EF4 tornado that hit Murfreesboro in my opinion seemed to justify a TE. I dont know what others on this but when a large 1/2 mile-wide tornado was reported the NWS in Nashville issued a TE for Murfreesboro. Now I think this was the only TE that was issued but several NWS offices were using very strong language in their tornado warnings. They were stating these storms are dangerous and life threatening and capable of strong/violent tornadoes. I think they did a really good job of getting the warning out to people for it could have been a lot deadlier than it was. It is still unfortunate six people got killed but I think the warnings saved many other lives. In addition to the EF4 tornado in Murfreesboro there were also eight EF3 tornadoes as well in this outbreak.
 
Also Paul K. I think Greensburg got a tornado emergency but Parkersburg did not. The tornado in Parkersburg was not easily identifiable because it was rain-wrapped. Even though Parkersburg did not receive an actual TE, the NWS in Des Moines mentioned it being rain-wrapped and that this storm was extremely dangerous and life-threatening and capable of producing strong or violent tornadoes. Those words seem to be just as serious as the word tornado emergency.

NWS in Des Moines actually has a department-specific policy to not issue Tornado Emergencies, but they did tell Craig that they were considering ending that policy on May 25 until they came up with the strongly worded warning you mentioned.

One point they raised on the phone to me was that they did not know where the tornado would track, as it appeared on radar that it could have potentially taken an even greater right turn than it did. It actually ended up occluding near the Waterloo Airport, even though the Dunkerton wedge formed only a mile or two northeast of the same exact position about fifteen minutes later (it turns out this is the one we witnessed behind the edge of the raincore from our vantage in Jamestown).

I think TE's may be overused by some stations, especially in the Southeast, but the way that, say, Norman uses them is a valid way. IMO, a TE storm should be a very rare condition for which normal safety procedures may not hold, i.e. like OKC '99 when Gary England asked residents in reasonable advance of the storm to abandon their homes for neighbors that had underground shelters, or like in Wichita '91 when police well in advance of the Andover F5 were going through trailer parks instructing residents to abandon them completely for sturdier shelter (I think this is S.O.P. for all TOR warnings now, though).

Severe thunderstorm warnings ought to have some stronger wording, too, because some people - especially in tornado alley - tend to dismiss them unless there's an outdoor event. They already have instructions to keep an eye out for possible tornadoes within those warnings on days which they are expected, but in case of rotation or sighting this can be upgraded; however, in the case of extremely destructive straight-line winds, I'm afraid not many people will heed even the stronger wording of an SVR. A derecho is often a killer storm, especially on and near lakes, and 80-90+ MPH winds can disrupt driving or make it dangerous especially for semi's. I've noted that the NWS website has some public information about derechos - maybe they could spread the information a little more by working with local forecast offices and especially news offices, and issue warnings and even watches for these very fast-moving, very destructive storms (EDIT: derecho warnings and derecho watches, that is. I think that a derecho watch could be valid especially for boaters, who may ignore an SVR or PDS SVR box but who may think twice about boating in the almost assured case of the inescapably sweeping, wide-ranged, and fast-moving path that late summer derechos exhibit).
 
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They were supposed to have an updated directive on April 1 with guidelines on when to use a TE and when not to, but I don't think it's done yet...that will be interesting.
 
While I fully expect flames to come my way as a result of this post, another Tornado Emergency busted yesterday. It was issued for Aurora, Nebraska.

I know it was done with the best of intentions. Yet, my point stands that a decade after the first TE, we only have two clear-cut successes (Greensburg and Moore) and numerous busts. We do not have the scientific skill to produce consistently accurate TE messages as I believe this season's busts demonstrate.

I am hopeful that after Vortex II is finished and the results published that will change. If it does, my opinion regarding TE's will change, also.

Until the state-of-the-art improves, it is my opinion we would be better off not issuing tornado emergency messages.
 
While I fully expect flames to come my way as a result of this post, another Tornado Emergency busted yesterday. It was issued for Aurora, Nebraska.

I know it was done with the best of intentions. Yet, my point stands that a decade after the first TE, we only have two clear-cut successes (Greensburg and Moore) and numerous busts. We do not have the scientific skill to produce consistently accurate TE messages as I believe this season's busts demonstrate.

I am hopeful that after Vortex II is finished and the results published that will change. If it does, my opinion regarding TE's will change, also.

Until the state-of-the-art improves, it is my opinion we would be better off not issuing tornado emergency messages.

Mike, I was a little surprised to hear about the tornado emergency, too. The tornado did look menacing, but I don't know if the emergency was justified. Granted, any tornado approaching any town or community is its own emergency in a way, but I thought a "Tornado Emergency" was supposed to indicate an extremely large and/or damaging tornado approaching a large population center. Aurora isn't all that big of a town; so if the NWS issued a tornado emergency for a town like that, then it seems like, to stay consistent, they should issue one for just about any town that a confirmed tornado approaches.
 
...any tornado approaching any town or community is its own emergency in a way, but I thought a "Tornado Emergency" was supposed to indicate an extremely large and/or damaging tornado approaching a large population center. Aurora isn't all that big of a town...

Aurora is a city in Hamilton County, Nebraska in the United States of America. The population was 4225 at the 2000 census. It is the county seat of Hamilton County.

I think that qualifies as a population center. Also, the reports coming in said things like "large tornado doing damage on Hwy 34 moving straight east". Wouldn't that meet the criteria of "extremely large and/or damaging tornado approaching a large population center" ?

BTW, Greensburg, KS = The population was 1574 at the 2000 census.
 
So what's more serious - a tornado warning, or a tornado emergency? If a tornado warning is less serious, does that mean people under a tornado warning need not seek shelter, while those under a tornado emergency do?

Why not simply re-issue the warning with the updated information and call-to-action statements?
 
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