"TORNADO EMERGENCY"

[Jeff Miller]

The rarely used "Tornado Emergency" text has proven it's value as it has saved lives and has a level of urgency unparalelled in the history of weather warnings. This terminology was used in Moore, OK in 1999 and this year, 2007, in Greensburg. Both later were rated F5 Tornadoes, both saved countless lives. The fact that this is rarely used is of immense value.

However, to the best of my knowledge, this terminology is not "official NWS lexicon". When - or will - this be added nationally for all offices to use in the case of extreme danger? A quick google search indicates nothing of this being an official NWS policy. Please correct me if I am wrong.

The way I understand it, the levels could go like this:

1. Tornado Watch (tornadoes possible)
2. Tornado Warning (Doppler indicated or tornado spotted in low populated areas)
3. Tornado Emergency (Confirmed tornado directly impacting a populated area imminent or ocurring)

 

[Kevin Bowman]

while i like your idea and would support it, the general public isint too bright and would easily get confused between emergency and warning

 

[Justin E. Reed]

You have 1 and 2 correct, number 3, more complicated. It is usually associated with a large, destructive, powerful, tornado moving into a highly populated area. The offices I've heard use it are mainly OKC, FTW, Wichita, and Kansas City have used them more than once. It was used in Nashville last year for the Gallatin tornado, and also for the Enterprise tornado. The biggest part is that it is up to the head forecaster or person that is issuing the warning to call it an "emergency".

 

[Mike Umscheid]

The biggest part is that it is up to the head forecaster or person that is issuing the warning to call it an "emergency".

And that is exactly why I went with that text. Three things combined lead to the instant decision: 1) Confirmed large, 1/2 to 3/4 mile tornado reported along Highway 183 by chasers... 2) The tornado vortex signature on radar indicating up to 200 knots of delta-V and 3) The last 3 frames of our 4-minute 0.5 degree velocity signature...showing a nearly direct path for the town. 1500 population town vs. something like that coming... that was no brainer in my part... this was an emergency. I had no second thoughts about the usage of this extremely enhanced verbage, given the storm characteristic, situational awareness of the environment (near storm environment 0-1km EHI was over 10... off the charts). The thought was simply this: Use the strongest wording possible to convince those in the path to take cover to protect their life. Any "emergency" wording should be used with extreme caution and there should be high confidence that an "emergency" is happening or is just about to take place... anyway, that's my thoughts on this topic. While we do "train" for storms capable of such destruction, it is something you will only see maybe once in your career while in the "hot seat"... if that..... and that is where gut/instinct come in to play... as I mentioned on my blog.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Thank you for that explanation, Mike.

Do you have a link or could you post the actual "Tornado Emergency" Text for us, as it was transmitted? I looked at the Dodge City Tornado Warning Archives and all I can see is the standard "Tornado Warnings".

 

[Mike Umscheid]

Thank you for that explanation, Mike.

Do you have a link or could you post the actual "Tornado Emergency" Text for us, as it was transmitted? I looked at the Dodge City Tornado Warning Archives and all I can see is the standard "Tornado Warnings".

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
941 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

KSC097-050300-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-070505T0300Z/
KIOWA KS-
941 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY…

…A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR GREENSBURG….

AT 937 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF GREENSBURG…MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. A VIOLENT TORNADO WAS ON A DIRECT PATH FOR PORTIONS OF GREENSBURG…ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF TOWN. TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECATIONS…THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION FOR GREENSBURG!!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT…LON 3749 9936 3745 9929 3760 9901 3764 9936

$$

UMSCHEID
-------------------------
One thing I never even noticed until just now... I misspelled "precautions"! :-O

 

[Paul Knightley]

Mike - I totally agree that this must have been a no-brainer. You had to try to impart the extreme severity of the situation, and from reading the text, you did.

 

[Mike Smith]

With all due respect, I disagree that "tornado emergency" is a good idea and have since it was first tried in 1999. I speak from the point of view from someone who is actually in the warning business (i.e., we interface directly with those who receive the warning). Please consider:

There are too many sub-categories of warnings (especially as regards floods) and I don't want to get this started with tornadoes. People do not care whether it is a a flood warning, a flash flood warning, an "urban and small stream flood", an arroyo flood, an ice jam flood, etc., etc., etc. They want to know whether high water will occur, how high it will get, and when it will rise. Its all water.

Plus, all of these subcategories are difficult to keep up with from a computer programming standpoint from the point of view of a commercial weather companies, media, AND for those that have WRSAME-encoded weather radios. The "emergency" message does not have the same heading as the "warning."

Besides, what do you do differently if an "emergency" is issued? You are supposed to already be in the basement or have already taken precautions.

It isn't like the "emergency" has a perfect track record. Saturday evening, an "emergency" was declared for Great Bend, Kansas, but little happened.

Less complexity is better. Prior to polygons, this might have made sense but I don't believe the added complexity adds net value in the polygon era.

Lets concentrate on making tornado warnings the best they can be.

That said: DDC NWS, TV and Private Sector did a terrific job Friday night.

Mike

 

[Terry Tyler]

seems alot like the issuing of tornado warnings for landfalling hurricanes...its a tornado warning, but a special kind of tornado warning...

like tornado warnings have different text with them and emphasis on the warnings to work to the specific threat, ie "multiple breif tornadoes, emergency management reported XX, tornado emergency, etc...

in the case of a landfalling hurricane, they issue a tornado warning for a unique kind of system, but its still a tornado warning...and for a tornado emergency...its still a tornado warning, but it says tornado emergency in the text...

i dont work for NWS so its just my interpretation, just my 2 cents...guess its similar to a "PDS" ww...

 

[rdale]

seems alot like the issuing of tornado warnings for landfalling hurricanes...its a tornado warning, but a special kind of tornado warning...

In order to clear up confusion that sort of event will no longer occur, an Extreme Wind Warning (EWW) will be issued for landfalling hurricanes.

I'm not completely against Tornado Emergencies, but if you think about it the public isn't going to hear (or know) the difference. For something like Greensburg, I'd bet MANY MANY MANY more people took cover because of media coverage and sirens than seeing the words "Tornado Emergency" in the text of the warning.

 

[B Ozanne]

If there wasn't a tornado emergency then dozens more people would have died. How do you work around that?

I agree with the hurricane analogy. Hurricane warnings go out 24 hours ahead of time. So how do you differentiate for when the eyewall is making landfall? Am I supposed to be in my shelter a day before landfall? I hope not. But I also shouldn't be waiting for the "tornado warning" in a hurricane.

In other, less serious weather events the NWS just issues a short term forecast. Which are only familiar to meteorologists and weather enthusiasts. We often see a short term forecast when the heaviest bands of snow are impacting the area even though warnings have been long outstanding.

Edit...replace with extreme wind warning.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I agree Bill. If you sitting in Greensburg with the sirens going off, like they have probably many many times before (when nothing happened - radar indicated rotation etc.), wondering what the best course of action is, and your weather radio beeps and the wording states after declaring a large violent tornado is coming, THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY you're gonna take a direct hit, then it's a no brainer to use that wording under the circumstances of last Friday evening. People are gonna react to that in an instant! Mike U did an awesome job.

 

[rdale]

If there wasn't a tornado emergency then dozens more people would have died. How do you work around that?

Where did that information come from?

and your weather radio beeps and the wording states after declaring a large violent tornado is coming

Most post-storm studies I've seen show that less than 3% of the residents get their warning info from NWR.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

OK, HOWEVER they get the warning info, whether TV, radio etc.

 

[rdale]

Agreed that people got their info - but I never heard any of the TV mets I was streaming used the phrase "tornado emergency" so how do the people know one was issued?