Tornado Emergencies

[Darrin Rasberry]

And about the derecho stuff - I remember LSX a couple years ago using wording along the lines of "this storm will produce tornado-like winds - siren activation suggested." I also seem to remember seeing something about how CRH did not like that, and that WFOs can not suggest siren activation in their warnings...

What is CRH? Sorry, I'm new to the terms here ... LSX is St. Louis and WFO means weather forecast office I think, but I'm not sure what CRH means?

If I recall correctly, there's some places in the outer reaches of the U.S. that blow sirens during Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Certainly the 80+ derecho I encountered (as a side note, my stepfather told me it was a 100+ gust that set the sirens off, as he thought the sirens were automatically triggered to all blow in a chain-reaction once one of them experienced a 100+ gust in Wichita Falls) was extremely dangerous, as it did the aforementioned powerline snapping and tree wiping. Roofs were de-shingled everywhere. It was like all of Wichita Falls, a 100,000+ person town stretched to an absurd size that could accompany probably twice that many within its city limits, got simultaneously hit with a huge EF-0 at once.

Glancing on Wikipedia about this there's a similar situation in which a derecho caused what is supposedly known as "Hurricane Elvis" in Tennessee, which killed seven people and produced straight-line winds equivalent to a Cat-II hurricane. Like I said previously, people in my hometown are more likely than not to go about normal business during a STW, but sirens send them to shelter immediately. If a rotating wall cloud that doesn't produce and hasn't produced, but is traveling over my town, can call up the sirens (it's happened many times since '79) then these type of winds should, too.

Perhaps there should be a colloquial "severe thunderstorm emergency" term for these situations as well, and they perhaps should warrant a blowing of sirens to make sure everyone is safe indoors. Derechos with strong 70-80+ winds are rarer than even wall clouds near or over the city (at least in Wichita Falls) so the sirens themselves would still not be taken for granted, and winds that achieve Cat-II are certainly worthy of any "panic" that gets people to shelter.

 

[Mike Smith]

CRH = NWS Central Regional Headquarters in K.C.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I agree with Mike Smith.

If you're under a tornado warning, that is an emergency; it means a tornado is going to hit you. Instead of adding a new product, why not refine what we already have - the warning? I can already see this refinement taking place as tornado warnings are now (for the most part) defined by polygons rather than political boundaries... and that's definitely a step in the right direction.

I just don't see the need to have a tornado warning in effect for a larger area, but then issue a TE for an area nested within the warning. If that's done, then why are the areas outside of the TE still under a warning? It just doesn't make sense to me.

I think the tornado warning itself needs to be refined...

 

[Bill Tabor]

Based on the Tornado Emergency issued by SGF and rdale's post inquiring as to its outcome, I thought I would start this thread...

Tornado Emergencies are not an officially issued NWS product and thus do not have official NWS directives. Several people have come to the defense of SGFs issuance of a Tornado Emergency and rebutted rdale's implications that it didn't verify (which. at the time of this post and based on the evidence at hand I have to agree with rdale).

I'd say hindsight verification should not be a requirement for the issuance of a Tornado Emergency. Obviously they don't have that luxury. The decision is made at the time, base upon the threat level and public risk. It is always possible (and hopeful) the situation (threat level) could change (degrade) after the Emergency is issued. Hopefully that strong tornado will lift or change paths before hitting the town.

 

[rdale]

The decision is made at the time, base upon the threat level and public risk.

What's the balance between threat level and public risk? What amount of "each" would trigger an emergency?

What makes a tornado stay at "warning" level vs "emergency" level?

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

From Merriam-Webster online (m-w.com):

emer·gen·cy
1 : an unforeseen combination of circumstances or the resulting state that calls for immediate action

From Microsoft Dictionary:
1. an unexpected and sudden event that must be dealt with urgently

All tornado warnings are emergencies!

I have worked with/for TV stations in STL, OKC and ICT and with radio stations, literally, from South Dakota to Texas. I have studied warning response and we have a large clientele that uses our storm warnings and we talk with them all the time. With that background:

The use of "tornado emergency" will water down tornado warnings. It is a bad idea as last night's (which did not verify, there was not a major tornado in the City of Springfield) demonstrates. Even if it was a good idea from a warning psychology standpoint, we do not have the scientific skill to do it consistently well.

I have this fear, too, but speaking from personal experience, there are many people who know tornadoes in Wichita Falls (or think they know) and will venture out to another safer home during a TW. I remember a storm with a history of tornadoes and an existing wall cloud ushered in with a TW and sirens, and looking at the news said there was "strong rotation but no tornado at this point" or something like that. Given how long the storm was expected to take to get to the house I was at, my friends and I decided to take off to his mother's nearby home and her "tornado closet." It certainly wasn't a good idea, but I was ten years younger and much less knowledgeable

Had there have been an actual large tornado on the ground, accompanied by the words "this is a tornado EMERGENCY, a large tornado is on the ground and heading into the town" we wouldn't have hopped in the truck at all, for sure. My point is that maybe tornado emergencies are issued BECAUSE tornado warnings are already downplayed and themselves aren't effective enough to at least get people on of their couches "waiting 'till the roar" off of their butts and into their safe areas. I know even a wall cloud hanging over a city is itself enough to warrant seeking shelter - the skyscraper-twisting F5 in Lubbock in 1970, for example, dropped down in the middle of the town only two miles away from that skyscraper as a brand spanking new tornado before it super-rapidly intensified - but this needs to be left to public education. Until and if such an effort is successful to some extent, I think a differing class referring to "big, bad tornado definitely heading into or through the city" should be around.

In any case for anything above STW, including straightline winds to tornado level, rotating wall clouds, or a massive EF-5 knocking on the door, sirens should be blown ...

 

[Darin Brunin]

I defintely think that the Tornado Emergency was the right call due to the fact the spotters and meteorologists indicated that a LARGE TORNADO was likely to impact portions of the city of Springfield.

Where are the reports of this large tornado? Right or wrong....they still did what they thought was best in the situation and it's hard to criticize for that, but you would think that you would want evidence of there being a destructive tornado before issuing a tornado emergency. I haven't seen it.

Maybe the reason there wasn't "mass casualties" was because of the excellent warnings given by spotters and the NWS?

If you don't have a tornado or a weak one, it's hard to have a lot of destruction. Doug Kramer from the NWS office in SGF said last night that there was only minor damage in Springfield. If a TE is issued it should be almost certain that the area is going to have major destruction. But first...you have to know that there's a tornado capable of doing that which I guess it shows now that they didn't when they issued the TE.

 

[Bill Tabor]

What's the balance between threat level and public risk? What amount of "each" would trigger an emergency?

What makes a tornado stay at "warning" level vs "emergency" level?

Tornado Emergencies are subjective. Based on the current definition and usage of Tornado Emergency the above is subjective based upon information received about the situation and the interpretation of the person pulling the trigger.

While I agree with Jeff S that ideally the FAR rate should be 0, in reality that is never possible, or guaranteed and so that disqualifies it as a requirement for issuance. Perhaps the distinction should be made that the person issuing the TE feel personally, and subjectively that advisory will verify and that it will not be a false alarm. I agree with others it is based on clear and present danger of strong, likely previously verified tornado about to enter a populated area. It should also be used to help notify disaster preparedness resources to respond.

While TE is still technically unofficial, seems to me it will have to be at least 'official' enough for NWS to designate under what circumstances it should be issued although I will say IMO that most warning personnel understand generally that it should be issued in extreme / dire situations with very low FAR (in their opinion) - so perhaps no need to make technical. I think that is the real debate - whether it should be official and technically defined or not. Otherwise it willalways be open to debate as to if it was used properly or not.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I agree with Mike Smith.

If you're under a tornado warning, that is an emergency; it means a tornado is going to hit you.

For all intents and purposes, a tornado warning does NOT mean a tornado is going to hit you. First of all, the FAR for tornado warnings is about 75% nationally. So, for a county under a tornado warning, a tornado will touch down only 1 in every 4 times. In addition, if you consider that most tornadoes are relatively small and relatively short-lived, the total percentage of people directly affected by any given tornado in a county under any given tornado warning is typically very small (if not zero). In contrast, the Tornado Emergency pseudo-product has been used, typically, for those situations in which a "large" tornado is on the ground and is expected to cause significant impact to life and property in a population center. It is the tornado emergency, not the tornado warning, that "means a tornado is going to hit you". It's a tool to add more emphasis to the situation. Will this dampen the impact of normal tornado warnings? Maybe, maybe not, I suppose. The info contained in tornado warnings (i.e. the Call to Action statement, etc) may include such things as noting that a confirmed tornado is on the ground, and so forth (as opposed to "weather radar detected...").

I'm sure the regular tornado warning FAR would drop a bit if there weren't such a risk of litigation or local political uproar is PoD dropped a bit. Perhaps after VORTEX II we'll have a better grasp on this whole tornadogenesis bit to increase PoD while dropping FAR.

On another note... who calls some of these tornadoes "large". I know there can be a lot of adrenaline flowing when you're watching a tornado, but some of the tornadoes that I've chased have been called "large" by "trained spotters" while only being 100 yards wide -- far from wide. This is not a hit on "trained spotters" -- I'm just say that because the NWS never really includes "storm chasers were watching a large tornado...". I think "large tornado", and I think >=1/2 mile wide (maybe, maybe, maybe >1/4 mile wide).

 

[Robert Dewey]

But a tornado warning does NOT mean a tornado is going to hit you.

That's my point, we need to continue refining the tornado warning itself. If it's obvious the tornado is going to hit a major population center, why not just re-issue the warning with the updated track and intensity information and change the polygon warning to reflect the refined track?

 

[Bill Tabor]

I agree with what you are saying Jeff. I think the FAR should be zero in the mind of the person issuing. Whether that is reality after the fact is another matter. As I recall Greensburg this last season - Mike U issued a Tornado Emergency when it was apparent it was going to hit the city. At the last instant the tornado swerved. It could have swerved and missed the city, and that is the risk taken at issuance. Obviously the further out and in advance time wise the TE is issued the less accurate it will be.

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't the first TE issued May 3rd for OKC? I believe it is the nature of that event that defines the term. We had a large, long tracked, likely violent, and verified tornado imminently headed for a large metro area, and likely affecting large numbers of people. I think as warning coordinators observed the approach of this tornado they were freaking out worried about all the damage and loss of life that was going to occur. They also probably felt that this wasn't the typical tornado, or tornado warning, and they absolutely didn't want people to shrug it off or ignore it. They wanted rhetoric that would get people's attention, and make them sit up and take notice. "THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY!!!" was the result. It probably worked well, and who knows the complete difference it made that day - but I'm sure it added some expediency to everyone hearing it.

Question: Was the first TE issued by an NWS warning coordinator or by the media?

 

[Shane Adams]

Kinda sad after months of bickering because we're all bored and storm-starved, the main thread result from the first event of the year is more bickering.

 

[Bill Tabor]

That's my point, we need to continue refining the tornado warning itself. If it's obvious the tornado is going to hit a major population center, why not just re-issue the warning with the updated track and intensity information and change the polygon warning to reflect the refined track?

Check my post previous. I think those are the reasons why it is different than a normal tornado warning. It is also the reason why it should remain subjective, and unofficial too. My only worry would be TE's would become common place.

They should be ultimately subjective (as absolute knowledge is never guaranteed) and only used in extreme / dire circumstances or unusually high risk affecting many lives, and almost guaranteed verifiable.

 

[Mike Smith]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
904 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
OSAGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHERN GASCONADE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 945 PM CST

* AT 902 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FREEBURG...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LINN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RICH FOUNTAIN...
LINN...
MOUNT STERLING...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AT NIGHT...SO DO NOT WAIT. TAKE COVER NOW!

Here is one of the "non-emergency" (????) tornado warnings from last night. Since the NWS is telling people in the warning area, "So do not wait. Take cover now!" and giving safety rules, what, exactly, do the proponents of the tornado "emergency" message want people to do differently to save their lives?

 

[Bill Tabor]

Kinda sad after months of bickering because we're all bored and storm-starved, the main thread result from the first event of the year is more bickering.

LOL! Ah, this isn't bickering, just definition dispute. And it is kind of interesting IMO.

How many chased this Shane? At least I can say I was getting ready to when it was still going to be in Tx. My equipment and vehicle were ready to go. January though isn't my typical time to want to chase MO or AR in the night.

Perhaps January is the new April?