Tornado Emergencies

[Patrick Marsh]

Based on the Tornado Emergency issued by SGF and rdale's post inquiring as to its outcome, I thought I would start this thread...

Tornado Emergencies are not an officially issued NWS product and thus do not have official NWS directives. Several people have come to the defense of SGFs issuance of a Tornado Emergency and rebutted rdale's implications that it didn't verify (which. at the time of this post and based on the evidence at hand I have to agree with rdale). What are people's OPINIONS as for what qualifies as a Tornado Emergency? Is it a tornado hitting a populated area? Is it a long track tornado? A long track tornado hitting a populated area?

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I knew we'd seen this before...

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=12361&highlight=tornado+emergency

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I've been under the impression that it's used when a large tornado is on the ground in or headed immediately for a town or city. This should be one step above a tornado warning... In this case, a tornado IS OCCURRING and IS GOING TO AFFECT MANY PEOPLE. Defining "many" can be touchy, but I've been fine with its uses up to now. I'm fine with keeping it "unofficial", as well, since I think there will be less tendency for it to slowly become overused.

As far as I'm concerned, the False Alarm Ratio (FAR) should be 0 with tornado emergencies.

 

[Jarrod Cook]

This topic comes up every time. My opinion is it should be used when there is a threat of a strong tornado entering a large city (and that is usually when they are used). SGF did the right thing - they had spotter reports of a large tornado, not to mention radar information that showed a strong likelyhood of a tornado (which helps increase confidence in spotter reports, etc). Not sure what all the commotion is about.

 

[JF Massicotte]

I don't see much a difference between tornado warning and emergency for the general public. People have to take cover anyways. However, I see a big difference for emergency managers. When a tornado emergency is issued, that means you have to be ready for multiple death/injuries and extended damage, that reinforcements from other counties should also be ready.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

As far as I'm concerned, the False Alarm Ratio (FAR) should be 0 with tornado emergencies.

This is the most important piece differing TE storms from TW storms, that and (although I guess it is a little unfair to Joe Farmer) the impending approach to - or dropping down in - metropolitan areas.

The only concern I have is that it would downplay to any Joe Public (farmer or townsman) the importance of a TW.

Off-topic a little bit: I am also likely the only human being alive that would advocate a "high wind emergency" or "derecho warning" or something of the sort for cities. Five years ago Wichita Falls was shut down due to a derecho on my birthday in mid-June; power lines were snapped and on the ground, trees were blown flat, power went out (including, for a while, street signals) for part of the city, and the sirens even went off; the weatherman I saw on air that day said, incredibly, to "not panic" and that it was "not a tornado, but high winds from a rapidly disintegrating [???] thunderstorm." In a town where people are so used to storms that a good part of them go about their business during a STW, this was an open invitation to just keep doing whatever they were with no danger to keep in mind, even if the weatherman said otherwise, because there was no actual tornado anywhere.

Maybe no "high wind emergency" is actually needed, but public awareness of the difference between and the specific dangers of t- and st - warnings, t-emergencies, wind advisories, and watches should be broadcast by the media throughout tornado alley and the Deep South/Eastern Plains.

 

[rdale]

they had spotter reports of a large tornado, not to mention radar information that showed a strong likelyhood of a tornado

If spotters watched a very large tornado moving through the city, where are all the reports? Where's the "mass casualty" as the other poster noted?

I wonder if keeping a TE "non-official" means that offices are more likely to throw one up "just because"? If this ends up being a busted TE - why? Did spotters misread the sky? Or do we just ignore the situation and try it again next time?

 

[rdale]

Off-topic a little bit: I am also likely the only human being alive that would advocate a "high wind emergency" or "derecho warning" or something of the sort for cities.

No In talking with our local EM, they now will sound sirens for extreme wind events... NWS willl add a special line to SVR's where they expect derecho conditions, and we're educating the other TV mets on the process so they aren't taken by surprise when sirens sound.

 

[John Diel]

I would have to go with Jeff on this one. Merely a "threat" of a tornado occuring and moving into a populated area is what Warnings are for. Take a look at the numerous TOR's last night in OK. Yet there wasn't a single tornado. The conditions were ripe though, I saw the radar as well as anyone else, however, there were no reports.

If, a "Tornado Emergency" is going to be called, then it should be on an existing tracked Tornado moving into a populated area. Greensburg would be a good example of this. The tornado was be tracked and had verifiable reports.

If this becomes an "Official" term, then Jeff is correct, there should be a zero false alarm rate. Otherwise, it will become nothing more than a warning with a better possibility.

This, by no means, is knocking the folks that called the Emergency though. I wasn't there, and I certainly don't know what was happening in the Center at the time. I'm not second guessing rdale or anyone else. Simply if there is a true emergency, then it needs to be called as such. If it's a "maybe" emergency, then stick with the warning.

 

[Craig Maire II]

There have been a number of damage reports and tornados were REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTERS in portions of Springfield. I defintely think that the Tornado Emergency was the right call due to the fact the spotters and meteorologists indicated that a LARGE TORNADO was likely to impact portions of the city of Springfield. Maybe the reason there wasn't "mass casualties" was because of the excellent warnings given by spotters and the NWS?

 

[rdale]

This, by no means, is knocking the folks that called the Emergency though. I wasn't there, and I certainly don't know what was happening in the Center at the time.

Before people wake up and the PM's start flying -- this is NOT a blame game. This is looking at the TE and how it's used. The joy of this field means we get to evaluate after every event. Some would rather we push every mistake under the rug (already got that in a PM) and try again next time. I say -- look at what happened, analyze the process, and see if you can improve next time.

To answer Craig -- from what I'm gathering from other sources, the strongest tornado in Springfield itself was with the overnight stuff, and the TE tornado had little or no notable impact.

 

[Jarrod Cook]

If spotters watched a very large tornado moving through the city, where are all the reports? Where's the "mass casualty" as the other poster noted?

I wonder if keeping a TE "non-official" means that offices are more likely to throw one up "just because"? If this ends up being a busted TE - why? Did spotters misread the sky? Or do we just ignore the situation and try it again next time?

Well they put in the warning that spotters were tracking a large tornado - so I believed them, and this would justify the TE in my opinion, given the track of the storm. I would sure hope SGF would not have included that phrase if spotters were not tracking a large tornado. Is it possible that the spotter's reports were not 100% accurate? Sure. Even if spotters were tracking a "normal" sized tornado, given the radar velocity returns and atmospheric conditions, I wouldn't be surprised if they would have used the TE wording anyways.

And about the derecho stuff - I remember LSX a couple years ago using wording along the lines of "this storm will produce tornado-like winds - siren activation suggested." I also seem to remember seeing something about how CRH did not like that, and that WFOs can not suggest siren activation in their warnings...

 

[rdale]

I also seem to remember seeing something about how CRH did not like that, and that WFOs can not suggest siren activation in their warnings...

Interesting -- the NWS office won't be putting that in the product, just a special "trip message" in the header.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

I have seen that from LSX on a couple of occasions. 1) being a strong wind event on a non-tornado warned storm in Boone County in November of 1998 and 2) I believe (and I could be wrong on this one) that they did the same thing for that horrible wind event that happened in July of 2006 that tore through the metro area.

 

[Mike Smith]

From Merriam-Webster online (m-w.com):

emer·gen·cy
1 : an unforeseen combination of circumstances or the resulting state that calls for immediate action

From Microsoft Dictionary:
1. an unexpected and sudden event that must be dealt with urgently

All tornado warnings are emergencies!

I have worked with/for TV stations in STL, OKC and ICT and with radio stations, literally, from South Dakota to Texas. I have studied warning response and we have a large clientele that uses our storm warnings and we talk with them all the time. With that background:

The use of "tornado emergency" will water down tornado warnings. It is a bad idea as last night's (which did not verify, there was not a major tornado in the City of Springfield) demonstrates. Even if it was a good idea from a warning psychology standpoint, we do not have the scientific skill to do it consistently well.