Too Much Hype?

[Dave Kaplow]

Yes, there were two possibilities (strengthen or weaken), but which was more likely? How many times has a 170 mph storm become stronger 24 hours later? When it is entering more shear, shallower waters, poorer environmental conditions, and is already showing signs of dry air entrainment? Yes, there's not much precedence and our intensity forecasts are not super-reliable, but that's not the point. The point is that it was more likely to weaken than strengthen--and this is not monday morning quarterbacking because the true experts i saw yesterday all pointed this out yesterday--just read the nhc discussions. The media did NOT report this as they should of, and that is avoiding the facts in favor of hype. Whether it is "over" hyping or not i guess is just according to the way you look at it-Stan

The media might not have reported this as they should have, but IMO they weren't really much more apocalytic then us "experts" here at Stormtrack. Yesterday the forum was filled with talk about doomsday scenarios and disasters of epic proportion. And with good reason: the potential was there, and the weakening trend wasn't apparent until late last night. In short, it's only human to focus on the worst case scenario, and that is what everybody did. The media has much to atone for, but in this case they mostly just reported what the knowledgable people were saying. Maybe their tone was a bit more alarmist, but the sense of the words was essentially the same as what we were saying right here.

Disclosure: At least that's the impression that I get. I didn't actually watch TV yesterday - I seldom do, ever - so most of what I know about the on-air media coverage of Katrina is 2nd hand. I did check out all the major web sites, though, and I can't imagine that the online content was all that different from what the media was broadcasting.

 

[Anonymous]

Yes, I thought it was over-hyped, and I can say so because I didn't over-hype it. Doesn't matter hopw serious it might be, a hurricane landfall is always going to be wonderful television. I'm not interested in tropical weather to begin with, so the past few days have been pretty grating for me personally.

 

[Anonymous]

Originally posted by HAltschule
<snip> PLENTY of warning and urging for evacuations was given to everybody. Now comes word that residents are stranded on rooftops and houses where flooding has occurred and is worsening. I have one word to summarize them: Idiots!!

I know this a little off-topic, since this thread is supposed to be about hype, but I had to comment on the posts like the one above berating people who "chose" to ride out the storm.

It sure makes for great TV to show the old-timers who say they've never left and they'll never leave, and it makes for great journal posts to decry the idiots who seem to be getting what they deserve by not following an evac order.

But let's remember something -- some of those people likely stayed in their homes (or in shelters) because they couldn't evacuate for some reason, not necessarily because they didn't want to do so. What if you live in the city and don't own a car? What if you're a homebound person? What if you're dirt-poor like a lot of folks in rural LA-MS and you don't have enough cash flow to load the fam up in the car, drive hundreds of miles, and pay for a Motel 6? If I'm in a low-income family with no disposable income, maybe we roll the dice and stay home, hope that you'll be back at work on Wednesday -- it'll be hard enough to make ends meet with those two or three lost work days. You'll be looking pretty dumb if you screw the family finances for months but the storm didn't hit as hard as it could have.

Don't get me wrong, I've always thought there was an element of "We told you so" when a cyclone hit a coastal or near-coastal community -- it's like, if you're worried about hurricanes, live in Kansas! (Of course there you have tornadoes...) I'm just saying, though, it's easy to beat up on those people, but we really don't know their situation and circumstances. Something to think about.

 

[Andrew Khan]

Originally posted by Lisa Wadlow
IMO \"overhyping\" is better than \"underhyping\". Had they erred on the side of caution in their warnings and the damage and loss of life was totally catastrophic everyone would have wanted their heads on a platter. Better safe than sorry.

Yes, underhyping could cause immediate danger to peoples lives.

 

[Anonymous]

<snip>
But let's remember something -- some of those people likely stayed in their homes (or in shelters) because they couldn't evacuate for some reason, not necessarily because they didn't want to do so.

Yes, you are right about this. There were some people who couldn't evacuate for whatever reason. That is a different story.

But, if they are not mobility impaired in some way, they could have walked to one of the local shelters. 10K+ other people did just that.

I simply don't understand the thought process of those who were able to leave, but chose to ignore the rational advice of experts.... to get out!
Survival of the fittest perhaps.

 

[B Doss]

I suspected this would be the sceanrio before I went to bed last night, however, as more reports are coming in, I'm concerned that there's more to it than meets the eye. Reports of a collapsed hotel, collapsed apartment buidlings, people trapped, muted screams, widespread distress calls, mutiple total structual failures. Oil rigs floating away. A cruise ship broke in half and sank into the Gulf. Numerous torandoes on the ground, with damage being reported, massive storm surges, 40,000 or more homes under water in New Orleans. Gasoline now jumping from $2.54 to over $3/gallon locally. Reports coming in of cathastrophic damage in Mississippi. Multiple large structures leveled. Highways removed. Some pictures of the New Orleans skyline remind me of Ft. Worth's downtown after the 3/28/2000 F2. While parts of New Orleans were grazed by the bullet, it appears to be a fatal shot for east Lousiana and Mississippi.

 

[Warren Eckels]

A bunch of awfully fine lines to cross.

At midnight CST, Katrina's winds were estimated at 160 mph and the NWS discussion gave reasons that the storm could weaken or had already weakened. Katrina hit with winds of 145 mph, a weakening of 15 mph. Further, the NWS repeatedly stated over the evening and early morning that the storm was expected to hit as a Cat 4 or a Cat 5.

Now:
IF the storm had been travelling at 10 mph instead of 15 mph,
IF the storm's eye had crossed metro New Orleans five miles further west,
IF the storm had struck four hours later, after it repaired its eyewall, or
IF a bunch of dry air didn't hit the northwest flank of the storm overnight,

we could have seen the doomsday scenario.

And, of course, the people of Gulfport, MS probably do not believe that Katrina was overhyped.

Anyway, we now return to Aruba for the very latest on the Natalee Holloway disappearance...

 

[Jim Tang]

No overhype this time, despite the weakening and the sudden wobble, Katrina remained a formidable hurricane and has caused catastrophic damage.

 

[B Ozanne]

Its getting a lot worse down there. Seems like this always happens after the big ones!

 

[Rob_Davis]

Reports of a collapsed hotel, collapsed apartment buidlings, people trapped, muted screams, widespread distress calls, mutiple total structual failures. Oil rigs floating away. A cruise ship broke in half and sank into the Gulf. Numerous torandoes on the ground, with damage being reported, massive storm surges, 40,000 or more homes under water in New Orleans. Gasoline now jumping from $2.54 to over $3/gallon locally. Reports coming in of cathastrophic damage in Mississippi. Multiple large structures leveled. Highways removed.

To really put the magnatude into perspective, stop for a moment and realize that any single one of those incidents by themselves would have been major national news for a week!

But since they all happened at once, the coverage of all of them total will hardly last more than a week. It's like when your body experiences so much overwhelming pain that it simply shuts down your ability to feel it anymore, leaving you feeling like you really aren't hurt as bad as you are. Perception is sometimes very deceptive.

 

[Anonymous]

Reports of a collapsed hotel, collapsed apartment buidlings, people trapped, muted screams, widespread distress calls, mutiple total structual failures. Oil rigs floating away. A cruise ship broke in half and sank into the Gulf. Numerous torandoes on the ground, with damage being reported, massive storm surges, 40,000 or more homes under water in New Orleans. Gasoline now jumping from $2.54 to over $3/gallon locally. Reports coming in of cathastrophic damage in Mississippi. Multiple large structures leveled. Highways removed.

A cruise ship? I havn't heard this yet. Where can I find that information?

 

[Anonymous]

NO! This was ABSOLUTELY NOT overhyped!

 

[Kurt Wayne]

...

...and we don't even yet know what effect this is going to have on Mississippi River shipping traffic through N.O. or at the mouth of Ol' man river, only our most important U.S. waterway (linking and taking all traffic from pretty much all the other important ones, like the Missouri, the Arkansas, the Ohio and the Red).

 

[Bill Tabor]

Well, it is now becoming apparent that this was absolutely not overhyped. This storm had landfall as Cat 4 and 140mph winds and track passing 30 miles or so east of New Orleans.

I am now seeing that they are reporting up to 80% of New Orleans is flooded and the level is rising as rivers are approaching max. Because hurricane force winds were so widespread (like 150 miles from center) the damage to areas far away is still great. This true also inland as the hurricane continued to cause wind damage as it went inland. Finally it appears flooding and storm surge will be the real killers. I think a large majority of poor, elderly, and handicapped people didn't leave. There was a large number of them that built homes near the coast in substandard housing. Most likely over a large area many of these were washed away. Still people are trapped because of high water over a large area on their roofs, in the superdome, and in their attics. The high water will make it difficult to get help and assistance to the area quickly which will provide more time for sewage, bacteria, and disease, along with mosquitos to do their part and provide the real killers...disease. Keep in mind people can't live long without fresh water also and this is still August and temps are very high for those exposed and not used to being outside.

While the strength of the hurricane weakened from that of Camille at landfall and New Orleans didn't end up sustaining a direct hit it now appears the levees were barely damaged just enough to now cause them to begin failing. Water levels may not rise to 3 stories as previously mentioned in the worst case scenario, but may in many places be up to the roofs of single story homes - particularly in poor areas.

It seems it will be days or weeks before we know the full magnitude of this disaster just as we didn't know immediately the full effects of the Indian Tsunami right away. I'm afraid this may end up making the damage and destruction of Andrew pale in comparison primarily because of where it hit, and what it was able to do with levees and low lying areas.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

I origionally said maybe due to some of the storm's weakening, but if I could I would change my vote to no it is not over hyped after seeing some of the aftermath.