This year there has been an unprecedented number of southern tracking "cyclones"

calvinkaskey

Guest
Joined
Feb 17, 2014
Messages
384
Is this going to be the new norm? Storm formation and tracking extents going to increase like crazy? Will this transfer energy efficiently or will we see crazy storms like Sandy later on in the year?
 
Also what hurricane? Have there been any since Sandy? :p

Of course I don't follow the Atlantic...

Seems like an above norm for Pacific?
 
The most powerful for so far south in the Central Pacific. The most powerful ever in the eastern Pacific and the most powerful to hit land in the East Pacific. The most powerful in the Sea of Aden in the Indian Ocean. The most powerful to hit Yemen ever. Then there is China http://www.voanews.com/content/typhoon-linfa-hits-southern-china/2854644.html I think that is pretty rare also in strength and location. A few years ago one of the most powerful typhoons ever to hit Philippines hit and another one of the most powerful to hit, hit very far south.
 
1) "Most powerful ever" is completely wrong. Most powerful in recorded history - maybe true but FAR different.
2) You said hurricanes. None of these are hurricanes.
3) You said southern tracking. I don't know any of these that tracked south.
 
Sandra was the lastest Cat 4 Hurricane in the East Pac or Atlantic Oceans and the 30 named storms in the East Pac has blown away the record of only 23. This hurricane/cyclone/typhoon season seems to be very abnormal with the combined breadth, strength and number of storms in the northern hemisphere. This is likely the most direct consequence of global warning in a meaningful way so far.
 
Hurricanes hitting the Azores isn't normal, nor is Yemen and the strongest Mexican landfalling hurricane on the Pacific coast and strongest measured in east pac or Atlantic. That is in addition to the most named storms in the East Pac and the strongest hurricanes and typhoons in the Northern hemi to form or track over below 10 degree latitudes. Also there have been very strong supertyphoons at low latitudes hitting the Philippines in the past few years. China had an unusually typhoon too. http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/19/world/asia/typhoon-rammasun-deaths/index.html Here is more: Dolphin is also the earliest-appearing 7th named storm of the Northwest Pacific's typhoon season; the previous record was on May 19, 1971. Super Typhoon Dolphin is already Earth's fifth Category Five storm this year, which is an unusually http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Je...n-becomes-earths-5th-category-5-storm-of-2015 Notice how far south it formed, like 5 degrees north http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/storm_archive/2015/storms/07W/07W.html http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Je...n-becomes-earths-5th-category-5-storm-of-2015 Again looking at weather underground the sw Indian and se Pacific are also mentioned as having above normal modes of activity. THIS WAS NOT A NORMAL YEAR.
 
Last edited:
Calvin, few years are going to be "normal" by definition. Average is exactly that; a compilation of numbers that gives a baseline number. The Atlantic basin has been relatively quiet for a few years now, and I seem to remember the Eastern Pacific being relatively quiet when the Atlantic was so rowdy. Some years might be closer to "normal" than others, but as more data is obtained, the numbers are going to be in a constant state of change, especially since climate has, and will, always be changing, regardless of potential human influence.

If we go back through the concrete data we have (admittedly we only have 50-80 years of SOLID data to work with depending on which basin we're talking about), all of this is cyclical. There were also several rather intense hurricanes in the Atlantic in the 50s (along with a rash of violent tornadoes in the plains), and there are several landfalling hurricanes that are noted even further back that likely had very high wind speeds, as well as very low central pressure. Speaking of unusual storms, Hurricane Hazel in 1954 was extremely unusual in its rapid acceleration prior to landfall and maintaining much of her strength all the way into Canada. Although classified as extratropical by that time, 65mph sustained winds were observed in Canada if memory serves me correctly.
 
Neither Drew nor Dale were denying the number or intensity of the storms this year. They were both just pointing out that although this year was definitely above average, it did follow a couple of years of generally less tropical activity. In order to relate tropical activity to climate change, one needs to look over a period of many years and plot a trend, which I haven't done. I don't have any links to provide that information either.
For comparison sake, that would be like if we had a record number of tornados this year and used that as proof of more tornados being caused by climate change when the previous couple of years were below average. There may well be a correlation between climate change and more tornados or tropical activity, but that has to be plotted out over many years to show any meaningful relationship. One season by itself has to be taken with a grain of salt.
 
Todd, do you have a corresponding graph for the Eastern Pacific basin? I'd be interested to see if the more recent pattern of one basin being more active when the other is less active plays out going farther back in time.

I do find it interesting that, while named storms seems to be on the increase overall , the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes appears to follow a pretty steady cycle of ups and downs. I do have to force myself to take that with a grain of salt, as I doubt we were able to document every storm in the Atlantic prior to the 1950s, at least to the extent that we have been able to since that time.
 
You don't hear to much about the role of sulfur dioxide in global warming but it wasn't until around 1980 that worldwide So2 levels were lowered to lessen acid rain. It is after this time global warming really started to ramp up. Then in 1991 Mount Pinatubo cooled the globe for several years and possibly more. I'm not sure I'm convinced of how little global cooling is caused by lessening in solar activity as we recently have been near a solar minimum. If coal burning and especially low sulfur coal continues it will help to increase global warming. China is a big player in that regard.
 
Where is a site that talks about so2 levels for the past several decades and what the industrial output from different countries is according to the type of coal they burn? If China got their power from high sulfur coal for several years they could change global temperatures significantly. I feel global warming is allowing stronger storms to form further south as the temperatures offset lack of Coriolis effect.
 
If it formed near the equator and is moving it is moving in the south. Storms simultaneously form and move, that is what I mean.
 
Now a hurricane is moving south in the Central Pacific and it is near the equator less than 7 degrees north latitude and is expected to be only a few degrees of the equator.
 
Back
Top