The Future Of Chasing

[Bill Tabor]

Last night I heard on Fox News the prediction that gas could possibly go to $10/gallon! I looked on the web this morning and found this. There may be other sources out there:

http://www2.nysun.com/article/75363

I find such predictions interesting since at the current rates of usage the world's largest oil supplies have anywhere from 80 to 180 years of reserves available and as the price of oil goes up by definition more reserves become available:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

I don't see any reason based on oil reserves alone for price hikes as it doesn't appear to me we are running out any time soon. There should be plenty of time to find alternatives if government and private industry truly makes an attempt at other sources.

IMO likely high prices are somewhat artificial and due primarily to a weak dollar, lack of enough refineries, requirements for exotic blends, and low production levels set by OPEC. Probably economic and political uncertainty is the primary reason for it because this increases risk and causes market speculation to raise price. The weaker the US is economically, and the more uncertain our economic future..then the more unstable and uncertain the economic and political situation of much of the world. The dollar then is devalued providing cheaper oil for foreign investors because it is indexed in dollars which appears to increase demand which increases price, but since it is in dollars it makes it more expensive for us.

If the $10 / gallon concept has any merit, and I kind of don't believe it in a 2 to 3 year time frame, then certainly we should all probably consider new investment and financial planning strategies based on it. We may need to make new choices when it comes to transportation as well.

I've learned about the plug in electric hybrid vehicles. These are vehicles that are traditional hybrids like the Prius, but have been converted to also be electric cars. Once this conversion is done the vehicles will get an average of 100mpg! I believe this is done because it can travel 25 miles per day on electric and so the average usage per a tank of gas is calculated as very low. While this may not help on a chase directly because we travel more than 25 miles/day it should help the entire rest of the year for most of us because most of us don't travel over 25 miles to go to work each day. That means we are saving cash daily and this helps the pocketbook to pay for the cash on the seasonal chase vacations.

Is this vehicle the future of chasing?
http://www.austinenergy.com/about us/environmental initiatives/plug-in hybrid vehicles/faq.htm
http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/4227944.html

Alternatively, if PHEV's are not the future...what is? Will we be chasing in SMART cars?: http://www.smartusa.com/index.aspx

What about some type of motorcycle mod with a side car and a covering on top to protect from hail?

I've actually had dreams in the past of chasing a storm on a bicycle in the Central Tx Hill Country. While this was certainly exhilarating and a good way to get fit I doubt it would be ideal.

Note: Let's try and keep this thread on the high ground. Please no political discussions and blame game. Please talk economics, gas consumption, chasing, it's impact to you, your future plans to deal with it, and your view of the future of chasing.

 

[Brandon Goforth]

We have plenty of crude oil, we just need more refineries. I agree with you that prices are higher due to a weak dollar, but if we ever see $10 per gallon prices you can bet the economy is surely going to fall apart fast. The US economy is just not built to handle prices that high for a lot of reasons. I wonder what the limit will be before we're really in a crisis, I can't imagine it being much higher than $4.50-5.00/gallon before it starts doing some real damage. It's already hurting at $3.50! Think of the people that are barely making it from paycheck to paycheck and gas prices going so high they need to buy gas with money they don't have to get to work, store, etc. Out of control gas prices can be quite scary when you think about all the effects it will have, but I'm not so sure we're really THAT bad off just yet...although we do seem to be getting there fast. Let's just hope the conversation continues to be "I wonder if I should make this 1,000 mile chase today" instead of "I wonder if I can make it to work today", lol!

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Well, here's a complete 180 degree counter...

The fed is becoming widely expected to stop raising rates tomorrow (Wed) and hold them steady or even start raising rates - to curb inflation. Especially energy inflation. FINALLY. Raise rates, the dollar strengthens, oil tanks. The overwhelming reason oil is skyrocketing is because the dollar has devalued so much from the current rate cut policy.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/29/news/economy/oil_dollar/index.htm?postversion=2008042911

 

[Jason Foster]

My outlook

The green line is adjusted for 2005 price. You can see that the price if adjusted for current inflation has a slightly different look.

I believe that fuel will continue to go up about 30-33% each year.

2008 $3.80
2009 $5.00
2010 $6.25
(Price of reg. in Central US, on May 1st of each year).

There is not enough plans or other economical impacts that will significantly change the existing trend for at least the next three years. I too am hard pressed to see the price increase mentioned below. But I also believe that 2009 and 2010 increase will see a drop in the number of chasers, and the length of time chasers go out due to the fuel cost impact.

Chasing won't die any time soon. I believe the diehard fans, researchers, and meteorology students will always find a way to go out into the field. Perhaps chasing will return to the days back in the late 80s early 90s when it was just a handful of dedicated chasers and few hobbyists.

At some point I want to add a gas price analysis page to the chaser pages on my website. I remember paying around $1.10 in 1997 and 1998.

 

[Bill Tabor]

We have plenty of crude oil, we just need more refineries. I agree with you that prices are higher due to a weak dollar, but if we ever see $10 per gallon prices you can bet the economy is surely going to fall apart fast. The US economy is just not built to handle prices that high for a lot of reasons. I wonder what the limit will be before we're really in a crisis, I can't imagine it being much higher than $4.50-5.00/gallon before it starts doing some real damage. It's already hurting at $3.50! Think of the people that are barely making it from paycheck to paycheck and gas prices going so high they need to buy gas with money they don't have to get to work, store, etc. Out of control gas prices can be quite scary when you think about all the effects it will have, but I'm not so sure we're really THAT bad off just yet...although we do seem to be getting there fast. Let's just hope the conversation continues to be "I wonder if I should make this 1,000 mile chase today" instead of "I wonder if I can make it to work today", lol!

Yep, I agree with that. I think the high prices are already hurting the economy and no doubt even higher prices could cause economic concern.

 

[Jay McCoy]

I seriously doubt gas will reach $10 anytime in the near future. By the time we trully have oil supply issues we will have alternate fuel vehicles readily available.

But gas prices being what they are now and possibly at least $4 by memorial weekend I can see it having an impact on many chasers. the days of 200 chasers out on a slight risk day is gone. They will still come out for moderate and high risks but I have already seen a major decline in numbers of chasers on the road on the slight and even a moderate risk day when I was out. Also the days of solo chasing are history unless your wealthy or sponsored by a tv station. I teamed up with Steve Miller (tx) this year just because it was pretty well the only way we could afford 600 mile chases. And it isnt even May. my vacation this year could become very expensive so I have already set boundaries. I will not be chasing north of I-70 or east of I-35 and will only travel over 500 miles for a moderate or high risk. Driving to Hays on a slight risk used to be the norm and now is mostly out of bounds even with a partner. This sux. I used to chase every slight risk within about 600 miles (1 way). Now I debate going 600 miles round trip without a good chance of tornados.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Well, here's a complete 180 degree counter...

The fed is becoming widely expected to stop raising rates tomorrow (Wed) and hold them steady or even start raising rates - to curb inflation. Especially energy inflation. FINALLY. Raise rates, the dollar strengthens, oil tanks. The overwhelming reason oil is skyrocketing is because the dollar has devalued so much from the current rate cut policy.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/29/news/economy/oil_dollar/index.htm?postversion=2008042911

Yep, it might be the right time too. The credit crisis may be behind us and the ongoing housing bubble has been deflating for some time. Perhaps we are near or at the bottom. The stock market has also been on an upward trend for the at least a few weeks now. So, if that is true and our economy is recovering it may be the right time to hold rates steady or slightly increase them soon. This would give the recovering market the lowered gas prices because of a stronger dollar which would help recovery more.

We'll have to wait and see. While the above may be true we'll still need to keep US business and investments growing strong to compete world wide.

 

[Bill Tabor]

There is not enough plans or other economical impacts that will significantly change the existing trend for at least the next three years. I too am hard pressed to see the price increase mentioned below. But I also believe that 2009 and 2010 increase will see a drop in the number of chasers, and the length of time chasers go out due to the fuel cost impact.

Chasing won't die any time soon. I believe the diehard fans, researchers, and meteorology students will always find a way to go out into the field. Perhaps chasing will return to the days back in the late 80s early 90s when it was just a handful of dedicated chasers and few hobbyists.

At some point I want to add a gas price analysis page to the chaser pages on my website. I remember paying around $1.10 in 1997 and 1998.

That's an interesting graph. It looks a bit different if you update it for current prices. I've seen $3.64 out on chases in Texas lately, and I hear it is much higher in parts of the US. That also then makes the inflation adjusted price which we are currently at historically above anything in the past and in the area where it can cause potential economic issues.

I agree chasing won't really die, but likely a lot of the less 'hard core' chasers may not go out or severely restrict how much they go out. There may be fewer chasers getting into the sport/hobby.

So far it hasn't stopped me this year, but it has certainly been on the top of my mind. It's harder to justify a chase just for fun. If I am earning income on a chase obviously it is less profitable for all of us unless we correspondingly increase our product prices. I have a hard time justifying multi-state chases over thousands to tens of thousands of miles such as in past years without significant car pooling with other chasers. So far I haven't had to go far - or even out of Texas. Based on the time of year this will likely change soon. At that time, I'll be looking for other chasers to go with.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Also the days of solo chasing are history unless your wealthy or sponsored by a tv station.

Well, the other alternative is credit, but that is pretty much a losing proposition. However credit does allow you to chase now, and pay for the chase the rest of the year. That's always an option, but not really a good or preferable one for any of us.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Here's the most recent post I see on oil prices which are today reflecting a slight downturn:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080429/oil_prices.html

 

[Ross Kimes]

I think that the best way to fight raising gas prices is to reduce the dependency on oil. Many car companies are already making cars that run off of alternate fuel sources, and not just ethanol. The Chevy Volt concept is a good example. I also seem to remember a Ford truck that could run on gas, ethanol, and hydrogen.

The gas situation is bad right now, and it will only get worse with the emerging auto business in China. Opening more oil refineries is a good short term solution, but it is only a short term solution. The only way to really fix this problem is to move away from non-renewable resources and toward something else.

 

[Justin Turcotte]

The higher gas prices will certainly hurt some wallets but they are what will ultimately what will provide incentive for people to start buying alternative or more fuel efficient vehicles. When gas starts hitting the $4 to $5 range, hybrid vehicles begin to become a more viable alternative. If you still want the big SUV you are now able to buy the hybrid version GM produces. There is a lot of political pandering going on right now but I suspect the best course of action is for the government to do as little as possible and let the market perform its magic. The faster we get gas to $6 the faster alternatives become more viable options. It won't make chasing very wallet friendly in the short but we'll all benefit nicely down the road.

 

[Gene Moore]

Good discussion, unfortunately it tends to turn political ....so I'll stick with the issue for us, getting to the storm. I have friends that own both the Toyota and Ford (Escape) electric hybrid vehicles. In my opinion these vehicles are not for chasers that drive the open road, they are for urban drives in stop and go traffic. For example, the Escape electric motor cuts off at 30 mph and it only travels a few miles before the motor cuts in to recharge. The Toyota battery replacement is $8,000 I was told by one owner, which occurs about 120,000 miles. So if you keep the vehicle very long the resale turns to crap. Again, not for chasers that tend to put on 20,000+ miles in chase season alone. The answer is smaller motors. This may sound absurd, but we are in a horsepower race, just listen to the truck adds. Even the smaller vehicles from Japan are into acceleration. In the 70-80's the Honda's got well over 40 MPG and some got up to 65 MPG. We will have to bring those vehicles back if we want good mileage again, but only if the public will buy them and forget being first off the stoplight.

 

[Michael Towers]

$10/gallon wouldn’t stop me from taking my annual “chase trip†to the Plains but I’d think hard about renting something like a Camry vs. an SUV. As for local chases if any promising setup for a Sunday happens within 300 miles W, SW or S of Rockford then $10/gallon wouldn’t stop me. I only get a handful of chases a year due to time limitations so the total increase in cost associated with chasing wouldn’t be a big deal.

But prices that high would be a big deal for me in everyday life, as I’m sure it would be for many people. I drive 120 miles per day round trip, 6 days a week. I’m already currently paying over $100/week for gas, at $10/gallon I’d be up to $300/week. Since I can’t move my business and don’t want to move myself, I’d be due for a new car anyway and would take economy over comfort. Memo to Toyota, please build me a Highlander hybrid that gets over 40mpg.

As for the impact on chasing in general higher prices around $10/gallon would reduce not only the number of overall chases but vehicles on the road in general. It would also most likely have an adverse effect on the spotter network, reducing the number of folks willing to go mobile and opt to spot from home instead. With less chasers and spotters “in the field†the ability of the NWS to warn of impending danger in some cases may be diminished, possibly compromising the safety of people that otherwise would have received adequate advanced warning due to communication with eyes on the ground.

While I don’t see higher gas prices ending chasing, I can think of a fuel-related issue that most likely would kill it for all but the most very local of chases, gas rationing. While not likely in the foreseeable future, unforeseeable events or circumstances could arise that require the rationing of fuel. If that happens though, most would likely have much more important things to be concerned with than not being able to chase.

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm not interested in the political side of this issue because it's simply greed. There's no other reason for oil prices rising NOT benefiting everyone down to the consumer. I was alive in the 70s and I know how it's supposed to work. Wasn't there an energy crisis then too? Anyway...

As far as chasing, nothing will stop me from chasing except death. And that might not even work. I'm in a one-bedroom now...I can easily grab an efficiency. I can stop drinking beer. I can stop doing everything besides working and paying rent/bills. There will always be ways to make gas money.

People used to give me so much grief because my life is all about chasing. That used to be a loose metaphor. It's sad that greed from the top few % is going to force me, in the future, to make that statement very, literally, true.

But that's life. I'll roll with the punches.