Southwestern US Monsoon 2025

[Warren Faidley]

It's that time of year to start the annual monsoon thread.

Still too early to make a reliable forecast, but current trends suggest the usual start in about three weeks.

Some early wild cards this year include tropical activity near the Baja Peninsula that could cause early RH surges and the effect of recent rains
on stabilizing dust beds. I have not had time yet to inspect the dust beds, but it only takes a few weeks of 110º F+ to bake them properly
for haboob production. In fact, sometimes, early rains can produce small plant blooms that dies in the heat, becoming potential airborne particles
during dust storms.

I will be going live this year on YouTube during the BIG monsoon / haboob days, so stay tuned.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

I wish the desert wasn't a 20 hour drive for me. I have yet to see a Monsoon season in Arizona but it is on my bucket list.

 

[John Farley]

I wish the desert wasn't a 20 hour drive for me. I have yet to see a Monsoon season in Arizona but it is on my bucket list.

Well, we do have a monsoon season in Colorado, and it is often good for lightning. Haboobs, not so much, though they can occasionally happen.

 

[James K]

I'm looking forward to 'monsoon season' as I always do, not only because I like rain, but also (and more importantly) because I love lightning!

I'm just hoping that this years season isn't delayed so late like last year's was...I was pretty much given up last year considering it a dud by the time it finally fired up.

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I'm sire the Arizona monsoon would be cool to see season (and I'd like to), but its just too far away.

 

[C.D. Burke]

I've always wondered what the Arizona monsoon looks/feels like to a visitor. Living in southern AZ and enduring months with zero precipitation, very little humidity and a thermometer that inexorably creeps up and up, when monsoon storms arrive it doesn't feel like something that should be possible. The sense of awe is very intense. Not sure if that could register to someone who pops in from elsewhere in July or August, although they're still beautiful storms and the opportunities for really unique photography are abundant.

 

[Dave C]

I wish the desert wasn't a 20 hour drive for me. I have yet to see a Monsoon season in Arizona but it is on my bucket list.

Utah and New Mexico also have monsoon lightning that can rival Arizona at times and are closer. I would also argue it is somewhat easier to forecast in these regions as storms south of the Mogollon Rim tend to slosh about in random directions many days, or pop up and disappear so quickly you cannot always respond. The Utah storms I have seen were typically visible on CAMs a day before, for example.

I've always wondered what the Arizona monsoon looks/feels like to a visitor. Living in southern AZ and enduring months with zero precipitation, very little humidity and a thermometer that inexorably creeps up and up, when monsoon storms arrive it doesn't feel like something that should be possible. The sense of awe is very intense. Not sure if that could register to someone who pops in from elsewhere in July or August, although they're still beautiful storms and the opportunities for really unique photography are abundant.

I have done both so can compare and contrast. I visited for a couple years first, and then later lived for many months in the area leading up to and into the monsoon and endured the awful heat with a brand new perspective. I do think that context matters and the arrival of rain after months of serious dry conditions is indeed miraculous. The arrival of lightning into some areas in those dry conditions is ominous (wildfire). I didn't have that appreciation on my short visits, it was just the lightning season and I hoped for a few storm days while I was there.

When I was there for several months before and then into monsoon, I felt how everything and everyone feels more alive. Dewpoints get surprisingly high. I appreciated the 100 degree temps at 11PM cooling to 80 or so in the wake of a thunderstorm. The lightning in AZ in my opinion is extra beautiful because of how dry and hot it is, making it extra visible compared to storms in colder air with more cloud condensation.

 

[Tony Laubach]

My wife and I are taking a road trip vacation during the first couple weeks in July which will include the four corners and various stops in northern AZ and NM. While monsoon chasing won't be the focus of the trip, I certainly will not turn down some photo ops should they occur

 

[James K]

The lightning in AZ in my opinion is extra beautiful because of how dry and hot it is,

I've seen in various places others say something to the effect of this, that there is something special about the monsoon lightning in AZ. Have also heard NM is good for that as well.
That is one thing I would love to witness (and video).

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looking like the monsoon will be kicking into full gear next week. Classic influx of Gulf and Pacific RH with a high potential for haboobs on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday when the first RH surge arrives. Big question will be 500mb steering wind configurations. I'll be going live on YT for some of the first-ever, live monsoon coverage.

 

[Dave C]

As Warren stated, multiple models show moisture finally showing up to southern NM/AZ, etc this week. Hopefully monsoonal pattern stays active all season instead of virtually shutting down more than a month early like last year. June has been slightly cooler on the desert floor than last year with only a few bursts of multiday 108-116° heat and then dropping back down between 100-108° frequently, which to me seems more typical of an average monsoon start. If I recall correctly (still learning to monsoon forecast) these big heat bursts help setup the high pressure to the north which sets up the fairly persistent moisture advection to the desert. Last year June was much hotter and so may have impacted the "early" season start and end. Drought is extreme around Tucson and south Phoenix and so haboobs seem quite likely if outflow comes together properly before any major precipitation stabilizes the dust. Crossing my fingers for some bolts to make up for my abysmal plains season. Also crossing my fingers the wildfires are not too bad with dry lightning and exceptionally dry conditions.

 

[James K]

Looking like the monsoon will be kicking into full gear next week. Classic influx of Gulf and Pacific RH with a high potential for haboobs on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday when the first RH surge arrives. Big question will be 500mb steering wind configurations. I'll be going live on YT for some of the first-ever, live monsoon coverage.

Good to hear its starting to kick in there. Though it'll be interesting to see how long or if it makes it up to CO & over to the eastern side the mountains. (I haven't looked at models or anything)

Depending on day/time, I'll have to try & catch your livestreams!