Silver Lining Tours vans rolled in Kansas

[Lanny Dean]

Is digging up decade old dirt on someone arranging and presenting facts for public consumption your way of remaining “transparent” and “forthcoming?” It seems like you are more inclined to take a shot at the knees, or, in your words, engaging in “personal attacks.”

@Spencer Dant
I find your post ironic in that @Quincy Vagell and I chatted together privately last evening via few messages.

I wasn’t “digging up decade old dirt” but merely telling a factual story that should, IMO, have bearing on the subject at hand.
The moral of such story was to highlight just one situation while also questioning exactly what many are trying to say in this thread.
That’s a far cry from taking a “shot at the knees” or any type of attack as you so eloquently described.

My point was clear and concise and had no hidden agenda.

I understand that you’d love to have a conversation with me - I’m very easy to get ahold of. You can find my company and my phone number online and I’m always available to you or anyone. I’ll list my contact info below and would HIGHLY encourage you to contact me directly so as not derail the thread.

Lanny Dean
Owner/Meteorologist
Extreme Chase Tours LLC
Pilot/sUAS Pilot
918-859-0248

 

[Jeff Lieberman]

I'll leave the analysis about what happened that day to the experts, but as a storm chasing tour guest (whose van rolled 3 times and landed upside-down in a ditch), I was required to acknowledge and accept the risk that I could be hurt or killed while on tour. Anyone who wants to offer storm chasing tours had better be prepared to accept the far less serious risk that, if something goes wrong, and customers who trusted you with their lives are injured or killed, your actions will be intensely scrutinized (yes, possibly even subjected to a "shit show") on this site and elsewhere. Tour guests will share their stories, damaging information may emerge, and your version of events may be challenged. If you’re not prepared to accept that risk, and to face the consequences with transparency and humility, I suggest finding a different line of work. And if SLT truly believes that it has the power to order Quincy (or anyone else) not to speak with tour guests, I have a gently used tour van to sell it.

 

[Joshua Nall]

Davies' analysis shows the next cycle of the mesocyclone, the broad rotation indicated on velocity to the north, initially tracking southeast, before it then turns left to the northeast, just as it produced the EF4, following a very similar course as the previous EF2. Doesn't that southeast motion strike you as bizarre, and the turn to the northeast to follow the same track a strange coincidence? I'm suggesting the "storm" and mesocyclone were not moving southeast and then turned northeast. The rotation, and indeed convergence to the north, were winds feeding into a mesocyclone that was *always* to the south. The area to the north was converging inflow band. I hope to have some really strong visuals and analogs for the presentation so that you don't have to just take my word for it here, but that's the point I'm going to try to argue in case you guys have better ideas or additional feedback.

I can't remember exactly how Davies worded it, but I'm not suggesting there was SE movement. I said the area tightened and "shifted" South. But I was referring to the area observed in velocity data, not that the actual low level meso traveled South. The main point i wanted to make is that the new meso had to form somewhere and that this was likely to the north of the older wrapped meso. There had to be two seperate areas initially. I don't see how you can have a new low level meso develop behind the rain of an older occluded meso.

 

[Lanny Dean]

I can't remember exactly how Davies worded it, but I'm not suggesting there was SE movement. I said the area tightened and "shifted" South...

@Joshua Nall just throwing this verbiage out there for dialogs sake - but *possibly* you mean “broadened”? That is my interpretation. And in looking at velocity, it appears this is the case.
I should have included your entire reply regarding the “second” meso because it does have bearing. I’m wondering if we (collectively) are getting all caught up in the verbiage rather than the actual true meteorological aspects. I described the event in my original post as something “we would normally see in the Deep South/Dixie Alley”. Meaning merger/handoff. Someone else mention prior the Hesston/Gossell KS event ‘90. While I didn’t start chasing until 1991 (a year later) I have always been intrigued by that event. Three points could be made here:
1) There are *some* similarities in these two events (regarding mesocyclones and the handoff stage.)
2) Meteorologist, Jon Davies, also did an excellent write up and peer review on the Hesston event discussing some of the very questions that have been raised.
3) Jon Davies personally documented the Hesston/Gossell F-5, which gave a very unique viewpoint and ultimately a very sound write up.

That said, if I understand @Skip Talbot correctly, he is saying that their was no shift and or a secondary mesocyclone?
This confuses me because there appears to indeed be a handoff. If there was not a handoff present/happening and no secondary mesocyclone then we ARE indeed talking about a singular cyclical supercell/mesocyclone with a surging tornadic RFD. If this is assumed to be the case, then I totally understand the thought process of “the satellite tornado”. I’m not saying I agree, I’m saying the thought process is logical if one is trying to flee but ultimately drives into the tornado, they would probably believe it was a sat tornado. This correlates with what Roger said to begin with. While we know the satellite theory is NOT correct *by definition* (as explained in my original post) I can certainly see the thought process behind the original statement.
This also indicates and places the tornado on the northern rim of the of the surging RFD - which by proxy would suggest that a parent mesocyclone with an attendant tornado was actually on the cusp of the UDI area as would be expected.

The only problem I see with this IMO is that the velocity data certainly doesn’t jive with that theory. Hence you make a valid point that Davies specifically hints at in his analysis regarding this event and what he highlighted in his write up 29 years ago.

While we can and should always be learning, I’m not sure that Jon’s recent assessment is all that off.
Again, I’m curious to see @Skip Talbot s additions.

 

[Skip Talbot]

There had to be two seperate areas initially. I don't see how you can have a new low level meso develop behind the rain of an older occluded meso.

The velocity shows a distinct cycle, but no, I don't think separate tornadoes have to necessarily come from different areas of the storm, or that the next mesocyclone cycle must be located ahead of an established RFD gust front. If chasers think that, then this definitely needs to be tacked on to a safety presentation. The next cycle likely started on the RFD gust front/inflow interface, was occluded and then wrapped itself in the existing RFD gust front before spinning up the EF-4. There was half mile to mile separation between the cycles maybe, but visually this is all still occurring behind the northern curling end of that RFD gust front.

I'm sure there are many examples, but a good analog I can think off the top of my head here is the Tipton storm from the same day, which produced multiple sequences of concurrent tornadoes on effectively the same track line. They were so close the National Weather Service didn't even bother to distinguish them and the event log still shows a single long track EF2 for what video has shown to be at least three distinct tornadoes.

 

[Lanny Dean]

@Skip Talbot Thank you for the clarification. Although I’m still a bit confused. You are suggesting that a mesocyclone (in this type of situation) CAN and did form behind the RFD gust front during the handoff or merger? I’m just trying to clarify that?

 

[Joshua Nall]

I don't think separate tornadoes have to necessarily come from different areas of the storm, or that the next mesocyclone cycle must be located ahead of an established RFD gust front. If chasers think that, then this definitely needs to be tacked on to a safety presentation.

Instead of behind, maybe I should have said directly behind. Because I dont think you can have a new meso develop within the bounds of RFD of an old meso. In my opinion velocity data doesnt support seperation E to W, so I was trying to show that there was separation there... and that it was N to S. I can go with it being a mile.

And I realize you can have multiple tornadoes under a meso. I was talking about the particulars of this storm, that the tornadoes came from two distinct areas.

I appreciate your replies. The particulars are important to me.

 

[Steve Holmes]

It just brings more negative attention to them anyway, I don't understand their strategy.

That makes two of us, John. My gut feeling is that SLT is deep into uncharted territory, and is lashing out as a reflex when a charm offensive would do it a lot more good.

As Jeff Lieberman said in a later post, tour companies ought to accept the risk of blowback from things gone wrong. No one thinks about how to handle a major PR black eye until it happens. Blame our old friend, the Optimism Bias. Bad things happen to other people. That’s why court rooms and emergency rooms do such brisk business. We become those other people.

It is important to remember we are getting only half the story. SLT has, wisely, gone silent. I have no reason to doubt Quincy. He seems knowledgeable, levelheaded and not prone to wild statements. In other words, believable. It’s just a caveat I throw in that there’s an opposing point of view out there somewhere.

But if SLT has, indeed, spoken through legal action, it’s about the dumbest stunt imaginable for a business in crisis.

Suing a chaser is biting the hand that feeds them. Quincy is an “influencer,” as are many of you on this forum. If people find out you are storm chasers, they may say, “I’ve always wanted to see what that’s all about. Can you recommend a tour I could take?” The next words out of your mouth can make or break a business that relies on word of mouth.

How many of you are as likely to recommend SLT after reading they’ve taken legal action against Quincy?

I know none of the key players. I do not have a horse in this race. But as someone who’s run a small business, I know the challenges faced by others who do it, like the Hills, and respect them for conquering those challenges for so long. They have defenders on this forum. One of them needs to be blunt with the Hills. They are committing professional suicide.

Last thoughts:

1) The media can be your ally. “Next on Eyewitness News: A local stormchaser is being sued by a stormchasing tour company – and he wasn’t even on the tour.”

2) If an SLT case over the Lawrence incident goes to court, feel very, very sorry for the lawyers who have to present it, and especially to the jury which has to hear it. How do you explain it to people who think RFD is how farmers get their mail? Some of y’all might get a payday as expert witnesses.

 

[Quincy Vagell]

I do not want this to be all about me. It should be about learning, safety and most of all, those who were negatively impacted by the unfortunate incident. They’d appreciate honesty, understanding and closure.

I did want want to get dragged in, but now that I have, I must defend myself, those who have sought me out for help and most of all, what I believe is right.

I think the storm chasing community can learn a lot from this. Maybe it will open eyes and help people chase safer.

However it ends, I wish no ill will to anyone and hope that it doesn’t go in the dramatic direction that it appears to be moving.

 

[Jeff Lieberman]

Public comment on YouTube by an injured tour guest:

“I have read the various blogs and seen the videos related to the Silver Lining Tours (SLT) accident in Kansas, and I feel compelled to respond. Let me begin by saying that I was in one of the vans that was hit. (It’s the one laying on its side.) According to the news stories, the injuries were ‘minor,’ and one person who was on the tour later commented that there were people with broken bones. The latter is true; the former regarding ‘minor’ injuries is not. I suffered a broken neck from the accident. One of my vertebrae was broken clean through; the one next to it was pushed out of place 4 millimeters. I ended up having to have surgery to fuse the two vertebrae together and was in the University of Kansas Medical Center ICU for two days. Luckily, I have full use of my arms and legs. But SLT would be hard-pressed to find any health professional who would argue a broken neck is a ‘minor’ injury. At no point did either Roger or Caryn Hill, the owners of SLT, check in on me afterward. Several of those persons I was with, however, did, and I greatly appreciate that.....”

 

[Rick Schmidt]

In response to Jeff L's last post....Wow!

 

[Todd Lemery]

I haven’t shared many of my thoughts on this. Roger was a storm chaser first and then started SLT. Running a business is probably secondary to chasing. I suspect SLT was started to provide an income for himself and a service to others who shared his love of storms. A real win win for a guy sharing his love of storms with others and making a couple of bucks to pay the bills too. I doubt he seriously ever considered the possibility that what happened would happen, even after El Reno.
When the crap hits the fan and you are knee deep in it, most people call their spouse first and then their attorney second. Sitting on the side of the road I have a hard time believing Roger didn’t realize he needed an attorney’s help immediately. That would explain the silence and eventually the lawsuit which doesn’t make sense to me, but I’m not an attorney. I do know that an attorney would have told them to shut their pie holes and not talk to anyone.
Which brings me to Jeff. Most caring human beings would have reached out and make contact with Jeff when he was laying in the hospital. Most us would do that, but it sounds like that didn’t happen at all with Jeff. Roger most likely was told not to by his attorney. Even saying “sorry man” can end up being an admission of guilt in a court room. I would have made contact with people who were injured regardless of what my attorney told me, but with the way things are nowadays I can’t blame Roger/ SLT for not doing that.

 

[Jeff Lieberman]

Which brings me to Jeff. Most caring human beings would have reached out and make contact with Jeff when he was laying in the hospital. Most us would do that, but it sounds like that didn’t happen at all with Jeff.

In case it wasn't clear, the comment I shared earlier was from another tour guest. Thankfully, other than a few little cuts on my hand, I was fine. (So glad I was wearing my seat belt!) But I appreciate the concern.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Some people have been referring to a "law suit?" I am not aware of any such action being initiated?

 

[Kevin R Burgess]

It took 2 yrs.,before the mother of Corbin Jaeger to file their lawsuit against TWC.
It takes time to gather "ALL" the evidence,or the case could be in jeopardy of failure