Silver Lining Tours vans rolled in Kansas

[Mark Blue]

Admin Note:

Just a quick note to remind any potential posters to stay on topic in this SLT incident thread. I moved 7 posts from the end of this thread into Introductory Weather & Chasing and created a new thread there, so the unrelated discussion may continue there. No one is in trouble, we just want the integrity of the SLT thread to remain intact.

Thanks everyone for your thoughts and if any new developments occur we’ll be eager to discuss those.

 

[James Wilson]

Recent update by Topeka NWS has a second (or rather, first) track added to the survey for this event. I’m currently unable to pull up the Damage Assessment Toolkit, but I believe the last damage point of the track was the flipped van or close to it, and the amount of injuries may be attributed to the van flipping. I know this track was hypothesized by several members in this thread. Here’s the twitter post about it:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1136360942063591424

I have been saying along that they got hit by the tornado we drove through east of Overbrook on highway 56. We knew at the time that a weak tornado was close to us as I would think all would have known at that time. It showed decent rotation at the time but nothing that kept me from not driving carefully towards it.

 

[Mark Jack]

I'd be interested to see if they release a statement about the incident since the data has been released. I know they've released a statement after it initially happened but have they said anything lately? I checked their homepage and Twitter and didn't find anything.

 

[Jamie Winterstern]

Admin Note:

Just a quick note to remind any potential posters to stay on topic in this SLT incident thread. I moved 7 posts from the end of this thread into Introductory Weather & Chasing and created a new thread there, so the unrelated discussion may continue there. No one is in trouble, we just want the integrity of the SLT thread to remain intact.

Thanks everyone for your thoughts and if any new developments occur we’ll be eager to discuss those.

Apologies, I'll take responsibility for that. I'll make my thoughts more pointed toward SLT & not my own. As I mentioned before, I believe there's a sense of entitlement in some chasing instances; when something as extreme as a tornado is occurring, judgement can & will slip. We strive to be our best always, but accidents happen & I agree with @Joey Ketcham that socially media is definitely a trigger.

 

[James Wilson]

Jon Davies blog update on this incident. Note it was reported by me which he did not know.

A merger of two separate long-track tornadoes in northeast Kansas on May 28, 2019 !

 

[James Hammett]

Jon Davies updated his article in light of the track update from Topeka NWS A merger of two separate long-track tornadoes in northeast Kansas on May 28, 2019 ! The pano Jon constructed is revealing and contra the article is not a good look for SLT.

But also notice the advancing rain-filled RFD coming up from their south (center of the image) that unbeknownst to them contained a hidden and unreported tornado that no one yet knew about.

Most spotters and chasers are taught to stay southeast of northeastward-moving mesocyclones (areas of organized rotation in supercell storms) to stay safe. So, SLT thought they were doing the careful thing to head back south to Highway 56 and follow the primary mesocyclone from a safe distance.

Complaints and accusations online (Facebook, Storm Track, etc.) have focused on the question, "What was SLT even doing in the bear's cage?" Well, that question kind of misses the point when the room becomes dark and you don't even know an additional bear's cage is there after you're already steering clear of the main bear's cage that you know is behind you.

Not driving south into a dark core was precisely the lesson to be learned from the El Reno TWC rollover incident. You drive east or north into the rain/hail core if you must. Any experienced chaser knows the RFD core can contain 100+ mph winds or actually be a tornado, either of which will easily roll a high profile vehicle. And yet they drove south directly into it.

Two long track tornado paths merging is interesting but we had a whole load of people who wound up in the hospital because of an avoidable mistake. We need our highly-regarded chasers keeping focus on what matters most - safety. Not covering for each other.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Absolutely. The pano is very telling. No one to blame but themselves, and on top of that, it seems like a bad idea to have out there in lieu of the litigation about to come down on the hills/SLT.



And what were they doing with 4 vans on a 2 track road? How do you turn 4 vans around on that sort of road in a quick reaction? You don't.

 

[K. Gentry]

Here's a KMZ I compiled including the orig prelim path and the newer path (as first alerted-to by @Alex Elmore), and the point where the vans flipped.

KMZ Linkage

 

[Dan Robinson]

Does anyone have archived level 3 radar from this incident? That is, what they would have seen on BV/SRV in GrLevel3? I wonder if the second couplet was as apparent on there as it is on the Level 2 data.

 

[K. Gentry]

No one to blame but themselves, and on top of that, it seems like a bad idea to have out there in lieu of the litigation about to come down on the hills/SLT.

Totally agree to the surprise that anyone outside of lawyers/insurance companies have been allowed to see the video, especially since there is potentially identifiable location information in the image (not the captions)...

...what were they doing with 4 vans on a 2 track road? How do you turn 4 vans around on that sort of road in a quick reaction? You don't.

FWIW, that image was taken from a cemetery with, what appears to be, a 'main road' on the left part of the image. So I doubt that they were actually using those non-maintained paths in a cemetery for travel, but rather probably just pulled off of the road temporarily. You're probably right that the other vans were right there behind, but it also can't be confirmed from a video-still image (as I'm not familiar with tour practices, I'm not sure; may have depended on the location).

 

[K. Gentry]

Does anyone have archived level 3 radar from this incident? That is, what they would have seen on BV/SRV in GrLevel3? I wonder if the second couplet was as apparent on there as it is on the Level 2 data.

I don't have GR3, but here is a list of L3 data from TWX and EAX available on that evening (via UCAR THREDDS server):

Spoiler: 052819 Radar Files List - UCAR THREDDS Server

http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2320.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2319.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2317.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2315.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2314.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2312.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2311.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2309.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2308.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2306.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2304.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2302.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2301.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2259.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2258.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2256.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2255.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2253.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2251.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2250.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2248.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2247.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2245.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2243.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2242.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0Q_20190528_2240.nids

http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0Q_20190528_2321.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0Q_20190528_2319.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0Q_20190528_2314.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0Q_20190528_2309.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0Q_20190528_2304.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0Q_20190528_2259.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0Q_20190528_2254.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0Q_20190528_2249.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0Q/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0Q_20190528_2244.nids

http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2320.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2319.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2317.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2315.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2314.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2312.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2311.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2309.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2308.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2306.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2304.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2302.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2301.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2259.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2258.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2256.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2255.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2253.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2251.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2250.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2248.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2247.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0U_20190528_2245.nids

http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0U_20190528_2321.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0U_20190528_2319.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0U_20190528_2314.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0U_20190528_2309.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0U_20190528_2304.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0U_20190528_2259.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0U_20190528_2254.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0U_20190528_2249.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0U/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0U_20190528_2244.nids

http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0S_20190528_2325.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0S_20190528_2319.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0S_20190528_2312.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0S_20190528_2306.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0S_20190528_2259.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0S_20190528_2253.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0S_20190528_2247.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_N0S_20190528_2240.nids

http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0S_20190528_2327.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0S_20190528_2319.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0S_20190528_2314.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0S_20190528_2309.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0S_20190528_2304.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0S_20190528_2259.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0S_20190528_2254.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0S_20190528_2249.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/N0S/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_N0S_20190528_2244.nids

http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_NST_20190528_2325.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_NST_20190528_2319.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_NST_20190528_2312.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_NST_20190528_2306.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_NST_20190528_2259.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_NST_20190528_2253.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_NST_20190528_2247.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/TWX/20190528/Level3_TWX_NST_20190528_2240.nids

http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_NST_20190528_2327.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_NST_20190528_2319.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_NST_20190528_2314.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_NST_20190528_2309.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_NST_20190528_2304.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_NST_20190528_2259.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_NST_20190528_2254.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_NST_20190528_2249.nids
http://thredds.ucar.edu/thredds/fileServer/nexrad/level3/NST/EAX/20190528/Level3_EAX_NST_20190528_2244.nids

I got the URL lists via WCT. Can GR3 generate its own SRV? I included the NST (storm track) links if it needs them for the calculation. If you need NSS (Storm Structure), UCAR THREDDS apparently does not archive that. Hope it helps.

 

[Quincy Vagell]

The more I watch and analyze this, in addition to commentary, radar analysis, etc. from others, the whole situation looks worse and worse. It wasn't as if a tornado came out of nowhere, but there was minutes of lead time. I can completely understand the vans driving north at the point in the second clip, but why did they not turn east? I thought I was darting east last minute when I did so, right at the time that they were driving back to the south, directly toward the rain-wrapped/filled circulation, which was confirmed as a tornado via NWS. I only wish I had a camera facing south or southwest, because I'm sure they just saw a rain-wrapped mess heading directly toward them, which I cannot fathom why a tour would drive directly into this. Photos and video are from my perspective during the event. Video link.

 

[Darren Lo]

I downloaded the archived level 3 data from NOAA HAS and loaded it into GRLevel 3. It appears that the circulation was small enough that it is actually much harder to see in the level 3 feed -- this certainly gives me pause, since I rely on level 3 data while in the field. That being said, AllisonHouse now offers super-res Level 3 which might mitigate this issue -- I don't have any access to the archived super-res product.

Screenshots below with GRLevel 3 on the left, GR2Analyst on the right. I attempted to place the marker in the same spot in both applications. For GR2Analyst SRV, the storm motion vector was taken from the warning polygon.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

Jon Davies updated his article in light of the track update from Topeka NWS A merger of two separate long-track tornadoes in northeast Kansas on May 28, 2019 ! The pano Jon constructed is revealing and contra the article is not a good look for SLT.



Not driving south into a dark core was precisely the lesson to be learned from the El Reno TWC rollover incident. You drive east or north into the rain/hail core if you must. Any experienced chaser knows the RFD core can contain 100+ mph winds or actually be a tornado, either of which will easily roll a high profile vehicle. And yet they drove south directly into it.

Two long track tornado paths merging is interesting but we had a whole load of people who wound up in the hospital because of an avoidable mistake. We need our highly-regarded chasers keeping focus on what matters most - safety. Not covering for each other.

Just because the damage paths cross doesn't mean there was a merger. It could be weakening tornado turns left, new strengthening tornado comes from behind. Just because they crossed spatially doesn't mean temporally.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Maybe it was in a discussion within closed Facebook circles, but I've never heard of a generic RFD transect away from a tornado being such a high-risk maneuver other than the risk for strong crosswinds. Unless I missed something before, the tornado threat within RFD should be minimal. If I'm mistaken, someone educate me and point to me where this apparent common knowledge has been communicated either in high-profile statements by veterans or in research papers.