Severe wx warning locations

[Brian Stertz]

I have noticed a trend on NWS severe wx warning texts that use the terms near..or...about. I think with the advanced level of mapping and quality of radar data these days that this should not be such a broad brush. Just was wondering what would be the point of saying something that vague, especially when a particular storm is near a large city or metro area.

 

[rdale]

Because pinning things down to an exact location precisely to one minute has no basis in scientific fact... They started it because TV stations did it, but we always say "around 816pm" and that wasn't utilized in the NWS warning text.

Still can haunt them though if they don't check their products:

AT 336 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO THAT IS BRIEFLY
TOUCHING DOWN. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SHADELAND...OR ABOUT 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE. THE STORM THAT PRODUCED THE TORNADO
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ODELL AROUND 400 PM EDT...
SHADELAND AROUND 410 PM EDT...

The tornado was near Odell at 3:13pm and now near Shadeland at 3:36pm, so we probably shouldn't tell people it won't be near Odell until 4pm and Shadeland until 4:10pm ;>

 

[Joe Nield]

Because pinning things down to an exact location precisely to one minute has no basis in scientific fact... They started it because TV stations did it, but we always say "around 816pm" and that wasn't utilized in the NWS warning text.

Still can haunt them though if they don't check their products:

AT 336 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO THAT IS BRIEFLY
TOUCHING DOWN. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SHADELAND...OR ABOUT 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE. THE STORM THAT PRODUCED THE TORNADO
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ODELL AROUND 400 PM EDT...
SHADELAND AROUND 410 PM EDT...

The tornado was near Odell at 3:13pm and now near Shadeland at 3:36pm, so we probably shouldn't tell people it won't be near Odell until 4pm and Shadeland until 4:10pm ;>
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This is a known warngen problem with stationary storms. There isn't much that can be done about it now without a lot of hand-editing, which is all but expressly prohibited.

This, of course, no way represents the views of the NWS.

 

[rdale]

I didn't mean to jump on the office there - I was referring to the software and the "don't touch what the software says" prohibition. Just ends up making the offices look bad, like many management decisions do to all of us ;>

I am concerned though with hour-long TOR warnings... Knowing many TV stations are now going wall-to-wall (which I highly recommend during tornadoes) I think they need to be 15-30 minutes with reissuances as needed. The only reason to go longer is for a monster-wedge that we know will last a while. This clearly did not fit that definition.

According to the LSR, this particular tornado/spinup left the ground two minutes before the warning was issued - yet the warning stayed for its full hour. That's a LOT of time for the onair guy to kill with little additional info, on what ended up apparently being a non-event by the time the wheels set into motion.