Rick (EPAC)

[Josh Morgerman]

A decent cyclone is brewing in the E Pac. It's going to be named TS Rick at 8 pm PDT, and the NHC (and the models) make it a major hurricane in a few days. The big question is whether it will recurve toward the coast. Some of the models fish it, and others bring it ashore on the Baja Peninsula, in the general vicinity of where Jimena came ashore. It already presents beautifully on the infrared-- a real quality system in the making.

I'm absolutely ready to go after this one of it looks worthwhile-- although that won't be clear for several more days.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Many possible tracks bring to-be Rick over the Baja penninsula for another Jimena-type storm.

Folks with ease of getting to Baja may have a last chase-opp coming next weekend.

 

[Jason Foster]

Josh....if you do go to Baja, at least you got a bit of a feel for the location this time around. Certainly would be a neat chase. I'm sure Chris and I (as well as a slew of others) if schedules and such were different. A few of us balk at the risky terrain of Baja...and the few other risks involved with that area.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Josh....if you do go to Baja, at least you got a bit of a feel for the location this time around. Certainly would be a neat chase. I'm sure Chris and I (as well as a slew of others) if schedules and such were different. A few of us balk at the risky terrain of Baja...and the few other risks involved with that area.

Hey, Jason!

Yeah, totally-- I do have a little bit more confidence now that I've explored the region. It was a bit daunting the first time around-- for Jimena-- and I imagine it would be easier going again.

The Baja Peninsula is definitely not the easiest chase turf, with the rough terrain, the lack of towns, and the language barrier-- but, hey, I've just been so desperate for action this year-- and for a Southern Californian like myself, it's really cheap and easy to get down there.

I'd say my chances for a chase this time around are around 50/50. It could fish or it could hit-- the models are just not agreeing and the NHC is splitting it down the middle.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

As an aside - the GFS seemed to have a handle on the formation of Rick many days ago. (Well done GFS).

The GFS seems determined to right turn Rick to make landfall - question is where?

I best start looking at flights ....

 

[Josh Morgerman]

As an aside - the GFS seemed to have a handle on the formation of Rick many days ago. (Well done GFS).

The GFS seems determined to right turn Rick to make landfall - question is where?

I best start looking at flights ....

I agree that the GFS has had a good handle on this system-- but to me it definitely does not look determined to turn Rick toward the coast.

The GFDL and the HWRF are way more aggressive with the recurve and they bring it into the Baja.

The GFS keeps it way S and only bumps it N very slowly-- suggesting it would not be a really interesting chase subject if/when it made it to Mexico.

As far as chasing goes, we want the GFDL/HWRF solution. The GFS scenario would really suck.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

P.S. Stuart, if you have to fly thousands of miles to chase, why not go after Typhoon Lupit, which should come ashore in Luzon as a Cat 4? It seems awfully far to schlep for an EPAC cyclone that's not a likely major landfall.

I mean, I personally adore the EPAC-- but that's partially because it's my backyard.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

For those lucky enough (no pun Mr Edds) to work the Pacific basin this year, I would focus more on the typhoon season as per Josh.

Luzon (main portion of the Philippines) has already gotton struck multiple times in the past year (reminescent of unlucky Florida in '04), and looks to be hit again by typhoon Lupit.

Keep an eye on Rick but I am already seeing trending of keeping this storm farther offshore (left of the previous tracks). Rick is currently encountering waters of 30 degrees C and 10 Knots of effective shear (or less) - Excellent parameters for rapid (or even explosive) intensification. Rick (should) be a hurricane by this afternoon.

Besides the track staying out at sea on some models, including the GFS (which I suprisingly saw Rick being progged last Sunday on it - !). Second, with a recurving track, the storm will move WNW, then NW, then slow down considerably to a N motion. With this scenario, I see the storm tracking towards Baja - However, there are some potential problems. First, some higher effective shear (30-40 Knots) will impenge on the storm. Second, it will cross into waters of about 25 degrees C or less.

This will cause weakening after 3-4 days out. With the low N motion after day 4, and still off Baja (if that track verifies), the combination of shear and cooler waters will weaken the storm substantially, bringing Rick into Baja by next weekend as a minimal hurricane at best.

That's my 2 cents, but anything can change.

Ofcourse, next weekend I am on a business trip to Buffalo, NY, but I am more concerned about this cold front passing through Fl (today) will stall and form something locally here in the Gulf / Carribean. But that's like wishing for a wedge tornado in the FL keys ;-)

 

[Josh Morgerman]

It's looking a tad less likely as a chase subject today. The model consensus and the official forecast have shifted left a bit-- although the GFDL and HWRF still turn it toward the Baja. It's irritating to have such strong ridging in late October.

Anyhoo, I'll just watch and wait-- no need to make a decision now.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The 18Z models hint at a rightward shift, with the GFS showing a slightly more pronounced recurve. I know these are just the 18Zs, but still-- it's interesting.

It's hard to ignore the fact that the GFDL, HWRF, and Euro have been rigidly insistent on a landfall in SW Baja or Sinaloa for many runs now.

I won't give up on this one just yet.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The models nudged right today, with the GFDL, HWRF, Euro, and even GFS now suggesting landfall.

The Euro is the most aggressive, showing a sharp recurve and an intense landfall in Sinaloa (the mainland). The GFS shows a slower recurve much further N-- into the Baja-- meaning a much weaker system-- but it's interesting that the GFS is even showing a landfall. The shift is significant.

Let's see what the 00Z models say...

I'm starting to think this might actually materialize. I'm certainly more optimistic than I was this morning.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The 8 pm PDT Discussion suggests this will, indeed, threaten the Baja in 5-6 days. The question then becomes: how strong will the cyclone be at that time? As there's no known instance of a Cat 3 hitting the Baja's W coast, climatology alone suggests Cat 1 or Cat 2 at landfall. But if the models continue to trend right and start to show a Mainland landfall further S, this could get more interesting.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

It's a handsome cyclone.

The official intensity at 8 pm PDT was 85 kt-- but judging from these recent images, I can't imagine it's less than 100 kt now. The eye poked through just in the last couple of hours, and look at the spectacular outflow fanning out like that. It's really bombing out tonight:

 

[John Peters]

Looks like we've increased to 115kt/948 mb, and very impressive satellite presentation.

the inner core seems to have organized significantly over the past few scans, and a new large eye is emerging.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Models bringing Rick back over Baja by late Wednesday night with 80 Knots intensity or so. Looks like another "Jimena" in the same place!

The storm will NOT, however, be the "monster" it is now when it finally comes in next week because of the shear / cooler waters.

Category-5 status SHOULD be reached by tonight (10-17 to 10-18) or sooner ... Rick is a storm of impressive power ... If I died today I hope I would be a fish / dolphin in my next life