Record Cold Outbreak On/About Jan. 20, 2008?

[Derek Weston]

If the 18z GFS 384 Hour Model run is close to being accurate, we could be looking at some record breaking arctic air for much of the northern half of the United States. 850 Temperatures in Northern Minnesota are forecast to max out a -36 degrees Celsius. This would likely relate to surface temperatures not exceeding the -20's F (or even -20 to -30 F) for highs.

If this does pan out, Florida will be in really big trouble with a deep freeze and this weeks cold weather with be something they wish they had.

Will watch and wait to see if the models are consistent with this or if it will do the flip-flop thing.

Where are you getting surface temps for the 384. (I'm failing to find GFS data that far out with surface temps)

Thanks.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Where are you getting surface temps for the 384. (I'm failing to find GFS data that far out with surface temps)

Thanks.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

 

[HAltschule]

That is the correct website. Of course, you would have to correlate the thickness values and 850 temperatures to surface temperatures in degrees F. The GFS did an excellent job once again of picking up on this very cold arctic blast more than 2 weeks out. The GFS seems to do good job with large scale pattern changes and large storms...at least recognizing that they will exist somewhere "nearby" during that timeframe.