Prediction: Arizona Monsoon Season Start Date

Actually I think I stood in the same place. I think it's granite not sandstone. Anyhow, look at gfs it looks like the dew points are starting to creep up on the 8th. I know it's a ways off but hey check it out.
 
Yes... it is starting to look like a poor monsoon for the SW. I have talked
to people out further west (Phoenix) and I'm often told the "good old days" are long gone -- when storms would roll into the valleys almost everyday. I wonder what large scale pattern change has caused this or is it global warming?

Mike
 
Could it be? Could moisture be making it into the state at last?

NELY flow can be the precursor to good SELY flow with the real juice. PHX Td is up from 33 earlier today to 48, and I see some upper 50s and even a 70 near the Sea of Cortez. Perhaps early next week the monsoon will be officially on.

Oh look; as of 10:16 MST the temp at Bullhead City was a measly 112F.
 
I've lived in Tucson since '61, so I've seen all kinds of monsoons. To tell you the truth....this non-soon has got me scared. I think we're poked. This is eerie. And remember, the official "start" of the monsoon is not the first good thunderstorm day....it's 3 successive days of 55 degree dewpoints.
I sure hope I'm wrong....but I am truly worried that we're not really going to have much of anything this season. And let me tell you.....this 'ol desert is just as brown as can be.....and we're in for a long long fire season.
Pray for rain.
 
Originally posted by joel ewing
I've lived in Tucson since '61, so I've seen all kinds of monsoons. To tell you the truth....this non-soon has got me scared. I think we're poked. This is eerie. And remember, the official \"start\" of the monsoon is not the first good thunderstorm day....it's 3 successive days of 55 degree dewpoints.
I sure hope I'm wrong....but I am truly worried that we're not really going to have much of anything this season. And let me tell you.....this 'ol desert is just as brown as can be.....and we're in for a long long fire season.
Pray for rain.
Click to expand...

I talked to a park ranger friend of mine who has been living in Arizona his whole life and he said one year things really got going but not until August and when it did, September as well was extremely stormy and rainy and there was some damage, pretty substantial activity. Actually, early September is my favorite time to shoot monsoon storms, many of my shots come from that time of year because late Aug/early Sept is after that mid-August break that typically comes and last a week or so.

All this waist-high chaparral we have out here this year is a result of very heavy winter rains. The fire season was going gangbusters during the month of June, esp with that big 250k acre Cave Creek Complex blaze in the Upper Sonoran desert foothill zone. The native desert plants - we want those - either stay green all year or lay down each summer. The brown ones you're talking about are the pesky non-native plants that grow like crazy in the spring then die out and sit there. They are not desert plants, they were brought here.

If the monsoon comes in another week or two that's ok with me, as long as it comes. I have had chasing until early October in the past. I still think it will get started here before the end of July.

There are towers with overshooting tops in Flagstaff today and up in the Mogollon Rim Country. Maybe I'll have something roll down the Beeline Hwy 87. Weather forecast on the radio today said that could happen, storms might come down off the Rim next couple nights. Pretty typical in the beginning.
 
Hi Susan, yes...I'm aware that the monsoon can kick into high gear in August....and go well into Oct. But Oct. is really pretty rare. As I have stated in a previous post, our narrow tornado season is August thru the end of the 'soon.
I really haven't followed the Bermuda High this year, as I just look outside and see that things ain't shaped up like they need to be. In the last decade or so, it seems that even if we do get moisture seeped up into so. Ariz., the west winds win out and push this moisture into N. Mexico, where they reap the benefits. Here in far north Tucson.....that's exactly what's going on. And really.....satellite views show that there really isn't much moisture in sonora and points south....and that's what really dictates how we in Arizona are going to fare. All in all......it just isn't set up right at all. And in my humble opinion......yes....we'll probably have a few good butt-kickin' storms during the next couple of months....but they'll be few and far between....and we'll sink deeper and deeper into this ongoing drought. And yes.......things could change...but I'm not at all hopeful at this stage of the game. You're right if you think I'm bummed.....I am....and I'm just sick of this constant heat and breathing recycled and reused hot air that we are treated to under unrelenting high pressure. I swear to God...if I didn't love the rest of Arizona and have my business, all the clan that I grew up with since day 1 out here.....I'd split for higher terrain where we'd enjoy 4 seasons. But I'll never leave.
 
Good news is that models are starting to show moisture making inroads on Tuesday. Not particularly persistent inroads, but it has to start somewhere. The other good news would be if Emily maintains her current track and brings abundant moisture into the border area late next week for a little jump start.

Is this the official Year of the Aberrant High? First the obnoxiously persistent Greenland High, then the absence of the Bermuda High, now the westward meandering of the Monsoonal High...
 
Well the monsoon season officially opened here in southwest Utah yesterday with a downpour, cc's and lots of rumbling.
Im at 6,600 feet and will be mushroom hunting in the higher altituded of about 9,000 to 10,000 feet after we get some better moisture. My home is near Bryce Canyon and I can pretty much say that Im the only chaser in the country up here.
Good luck to all this season and watch out for the lightening strikes - they are real killers!
 
In looking at the GFS this morning, it is showing a bigtime super-grande kickoff to the monsoon season in the SW with the remnants of Emily. Based on the current NHC forecast track and what apears to be a pretty sensical GFS handling of the typical upper air pattern for this time of year, I think there is a pretty good chance of some serious rains cranking up in the SW and particularly AZ late next week. In fact, based on the fact that it doesn't take much to cause serious flooding out in that area, this could be a very serious flooding event.

This is a ways off and things could certainly change, but I certainly have a moderate degree of confidence in the scenarios I described above. We shall see!! :)
 
Originally posted by bill mudd
My home is near Bryce Canyon and I can pretty much say that Im the only chaser in the country up here.
Click to expand...

Not to get too far O.T., but WOW!, that's some gorgeous country to live in. Do you ever shoot from within the park?

Good luck, wherever you go. At this rate, I'm begining to wonder if AZ will ever get cooking...

(There was some scattered activity last night, and the DPs are creeping higher, but a 'proper' set of storms has yet to develop. C'mon, Emily! )

-Greg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Warren Faidley
Southwestern Monsoon 2024
2
Replies
18
Views
1K
William Monfredo
William Monfredo
Warren Faidley
Southwestern Monsoon 2023
Replies
9
Views
2K
James K
James K
Jeremy Perez
2024-06-21 REPORTS: AZ/CO/NM/UT
Replies
1
Views
274
Ryan Schwartz
Ryan Schwartz
Tony Laubach
'Not Feeling It' Chase Burnout?
2
Replies
23
Views
1K
Jamie H
Jamie H
Randy Jennings
2024-03-14 EVENT: TX/OK/AR/MO/IL
Replies
11
Views
879
Randy Jennings
Randy Jennings
Back
Top