Predict the Number of Tornadoes and First high Risk of 2018

[Jacob Hernandez]

Barring a massive change in the next day or so, it seems we will start 2018 somewhat calm (especially compared to 2017). From what I understand, La Nina years tend to have a higher tornado count than average and an earlier peak of the severe storm season (late April - mid May vs normally mid to late May). As we enter what is hopefully the last lull in the severe storm season until summer, I thought it would be fun to try our hand and predicting tornadoes this year. For this, please enter:

#1 Total Number of Tornadoes in 2018.
Estimate the final tally produced by the SPC on this page: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/adj.html.

#2 The Date of the First High Risk in 2018.
This will be the date that the SPC issues it's first high risk forecast. Pretty self explanatory.
For added fun, name at least ONE state that will be affected by the high risk.
If you want to be real intense, put your predicted high risk on a map.

Let's run this until either April 1st or if the first high risk is issued in March.

For my entry I predict:

1169 total tornadoes
the first high risk will be issued April 9th in MS/AL

 

[Jeff House]

1100 tornadoes
November 2 Mississippi or somewhere in Dixie

I am afraid La Nina might break down faster than the CFS shows. I would love to be wrong and have a great Plains season.

 

[Mark Blue]

1276

Oklahoma
4/27/18

 

[Dan Robinson]

900 tornadoes.
1st High Risk first week of April in MO, IL, AR, KY.
I'll chase near the surface low north of STL (just outside of the moderate risk), and hopefully score a tube or two.

 

[John Farley]

950 tornadoes, and no High Risk in 2018. No High Risk doesn't bother me; I never have much luck on those days anyway.

 

[Brandon Centeno]

1100 tornadoes
November 2 Mississippi or somewhere in Dixie

I am afraid La Nina might break down faster than the CFS shows. I would love to be wrong and have a great Plains season.

Breakdown of Nina actually favors enhanced tornado activity over the southern plains, according to research.

For me:
1150 tornadoes. Several very active periods.

First high risk: final week of April or first week of May; states involved will include OK and KS.

 

[Bruce Torrens]

1617 tornadoes in 2018, falling just a few score shy of the 2011 number. First High Risk April 10 for parts of western and central TN/northeastern MS/northern and central Alabama.

 

[Warren Faidley]

876 tornadoes

First high risk May 19 OKC area.

 

[Todd Lemery]

1213 tornados and May 22nd for first High Risk in Kansas.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

1047 tornadoes, April 16 in OK/KS

 

[Harrison Cater]

1175 tornadoes, April 10th AR/MS/TN

 

[Bobby Little]

1,088 twisters (Ben Holcombs message count so far today) high risk third week of April in MS/AL

 

[Alex Elmore]

1,100 tornadoes and no High Risk in 2018.

 

[Jeff Duda]

1166 tornadoes in 2018
no high risk

 

[Mark Blue]

See this thread to discuss ideas on making this a bonafide contest with a $100.00 gift card and bragging rights at stake.