Potential for Winter Weather in the Southeast near New Years?

[Marc Austin]

I've been looking at the long range GFS and it appears that a fairly strong system is going to sweep across the SE US during the 12/27-01/01 time frame. I understand this is a long ways out, but being from FL, I always get excited at the chance for winter weather, even if it's up in GA or AL. Anyone have any thoughts on this? I've also heard that the 540mb line is used in forecasting snow/winter weather and it looks as though it dips pretty far south as this system moves through. I'm not too experienced in forecasting winter weather, but I thought I would post this to see if anyone who does have experience could share any thoughts?

 

[rdale]

At that range, NEVER look at the GFS directly. Use ensembles. And don't use the 540 line, look at model soundings for the area of interest and the top-down approach at precip-type forecasting...

 

[Adam Lucio]

GFS has this thing looking very intimidating still. That 300mb jet is screaming over the NE and the cold air at 850 dives into Mexico. This one will be interesting and fun to watch.

Whats really impressive is how it shows the beginning-week low over the east along with a large high pressure over the west pulling in the cold air way down through the middle of the country. This potential behemoth explodes over the SE and if it rides that jet could be quite the Nor'easter.

Time will tell.

 

[B Emanuel]

GFS showing a 1057 high building over the inter-mountain west by mid next week now..

Coldest weather I can find is around Olekminsk Russia but it's not super cold but pretty cold.. -53 F. Canada -40 F or so..

Snow cover across the plains dips into the Texas panhandle across parts of oklahoma.. That's fairly extensive but it is pretty shallow in places..
More snow is forecasted across oklahoma this week.. Will it melt before the gfs forecasted arctic outbreak hit's?

Not saying the gfs will verify..... But it looks like if the GFS comes thru this time we could get some pretty cold air working across texas to florida next week..

At least there is something to watch for us winter weather starved southern boy's until the gfs flip flops or something and that's better than nothing.

It has been very interesting the last few years with a foot of snow south of houston a few years back and a freak mid april snowstorm last year across se and cen texas..