Possible chase this weekend?

[Jordan Hartley]

***********This is not a forcast*************

I know im going to here about it from some of you that were still 4-6 days out and the models are to unpredictable this far out. Having said that the GFS has been hinting at a possible chase for this weekend over the Tx/Ok panhandle and maybe even up into sw Ks. Moisture seems to be the only problem with this system right now so well have to watch that. Sundays are my only chase day due to work so of course im a little jumpy. Will have to wait until sat to know for sure if this is going to pan out but hey something to look forward to right?

 

[Brett Roberts]

The upper-level pattern on both the GFS and ECMWF looks pretty interesting, but as we saw last weekend, a lot can change drastically in a matter of 2-3 days. Unfortunately, it seems like low-level moisture may be in shorter supply this time, thanks in part to the nasty surface high over the Great Lakes pumping continental air into the warm sector. If I remember correctly, some setups during the spring managed to get by even with this problem, but the warmer mid-level temperatures of mid-autumn may require all the help we can get in the instability department.

I'm definitely not writing it off yet, but let's just say after spending the better part of last week almost giddy at the prospects of consecutive October chase days over a long weekend, it's going to take some convincing to get my hopes up again!

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

I wish I hadn't looked at the GFS last night because I knew exactly what it would show. Atleast during the spring I got treated to some nice chases so if the fall is a complete bust it wont be too bad. Not only do I have to find a way to get out of working... if it worth chasing, the OU/MO game is the saturday evening. I would gladly take a good chase over the game though.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Don't worry guys, I am stuck working this weekend with out anyway of being able to chase so of course with my luck it will turn into a fruitful chase day.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I am rightfully skeptical after last week, so I am waiting until Friday evening before I make a call. At this point, I'm more excited about my Skins takingo n Green Bay this weekend! We'll see if I can get a two-for-one this weekend!

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I updated my blog with a forecast for anybody that is interested here is the link http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog.html
Basically, I am just as skeptical as everybody else, but the shear profiles do look quite favorable for tornadic supercells if the GFS verifies. I'm not so excited about Saturday do to poor moisture, but Sunday doesn't look half bad as long as we get good insolation over the warm sector. I'm waiting on the NAM to pick up on Sunday's setup before I start doing any real forecasting, but for this time of year the setup doesn't look too bad, assuming the GFS isn't out to lunch again.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Its looking like the trough is a little further south with yesterdays run which doesnt help me out any but might help in the moisture department. Im just not going to get my hopes up just to have them let down again like last weekend. But if this setup holds together by Friday then maybe ill let myself get excited again hehe

 

[David Drummond]

We now have forecast threads going for both Sat and Sun.