Poor Media Use of Weather Terminology

[Boris Konon]

Sep 5 NHC tropical wx outlook showed 5 suspect areas, all low or no prob of developing (first attachment),

And then we see this statement from a major media outlet (second attachment).

Not sure how 5 areas of largely next-to-nothing for TC potential is 'busy.' It is actually the exact opposite of 'busy,' esp, given it is climo most active time of the year currently and given all the hyperactive forecasts.

 

[William Monfredo]

Amen, bro ! I noticed it, too. Broadcast meteorologists, YouTubers, news media, please don't strain yourselves with such tropical busy-ness ! How will they ever manage! So, it becomes about emotion, hype, money, agenda, and at the end of the day, most people don't really care about it as much as they care about tennis shoes for their kids and how not to blow the food budget for the next week or month ! There's that.

 

[William Monfredo]

One more. I noticed a popular media & forecasting outlet apply what I might call misplaced pride of being first... in the form of spin.
They said something dubious to the effect..."We're the 1st to lower our seasonal forecast....and by 5 hurricanes." Uh....congratulations?! ?
I don't think you get bragging rites for that: Lowering your total by 20-25 percent during the first week of September.

 

[Boris Konon]

Amen, bro ! I noticed it, too. Broadcast meteorologists, YouTubers, news media, please don't strain yourselves with such tropical busy-ness ! How will they ever manage! So, it becomes about emotion, hype, money, agenda, and at the end of the day, most people don't really care about it as much as they care about tennis shoes for their kids and how not to blow the food budget for the next week or month ! There's that.

I think what may be happening is that everyone was counting on hyperactive TC forecasts for incredible ratings/view/hits/likes, and took that to the bank prematurely. Well, you can't rely on wx always for continuous high ratings. It's going to go quiet at times, and some forecasts not work out.

We have been so used to active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic in recent years, some can't grasp that it can be this quiet. We are now in year 30 of this active cycle in the Atlantic. Such active cycles are typically 25-40 years, so a cycle down period is likely coming soon, similar to what occurred 1970-1994.

 

[Elizabeth Andrews]

Anytime these pre-season or even mid-season forecasts use words like 'unprecedented' before things have really kicked off in some way, shape or form, I have learned to take what is being said with a grain of salt unless it comes from a reputable, verifiable source that isn't hyping it up in some way. I'm not a meteorologist or climatologist or even a chaser. But I am an environmental scientist and SkyWarn Spotter with more than a casual interest in severe weather, and enough sense to verify what is being said before trusting it 100%. I just wait and see what ends up happening.

 

[Boris Konon]

Anytime these pre-season or even mid-season forecasts use words like 'unprecedented' before things have really kicked off in some way, shape or form, I have learned to take what is being said with a grain of salt unless it comes from a reputable, verifiable source that isn't hyping it up in some way. I'm not a meteorologist or climatologist or even a chaser. But I am an environmental scientist and SkyWarn Spotter with more than a casual interest in severe weather, and enough sense to verify what is being said before trusting it 100%. I just wait and see what ends up happening.

This is an excellent mindset. Be skeptical and apply critical thinking! You don't have to be an expert in any field to detect nonsense and things like logical fallacies and cognitive biases. I think scientists or those that have an interest in the sciences have an advantage b/c we tend to think more logically, practically, and with reason.

 

[William Monfredo]

We have people on X and YouTube that still don't understand the definition of Tropical Cyclone. So no, we didn't have "Helene" in the Carolinas.
Tropical Storm: Warm-core, non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center (it doesn't derive energy from horizontal temperature contrasts.)
Sometimes you have to do the right thing, and rather than pad their numbers with a coastal low along a frontal boundary, the NHC correctly refrained from calling the rainy, windy conditions in and around the Carolinas yesterday a tropical cyclone; kudos to them this time.
And yes, people were inconvenienced, and forecasters had vested interests, but being affected by bad weather doesn't mean definitions change.

 

[Jason N]

I was amazed by the discontinuity of the forecasts and mentalities. the WPC had analyzed a front and low for a few days before and during the event attached to the system, the NHC detailed in its discussions about the atmospheric elements effecting potential TC formation and what was hindering them. The NWS however issued Tropical Storm warnings; Now, I get it, there may be a grey area here when there is a risk of sub-tropical/tropical potential formation, so maybe this was the most logical advisory/warning to issue, over say a high seas and high wind warnings?, but it muddies the waters to the less informed I think, they hear/see Tropical storm warning issuance, the Wx Channel also talks tropical storm, repeating the messaging, so , people just assume it's time for the "H" because winds were 50mph!, but it wasn't that simple and there were apparently competing forecasts and analysis at least the way I saw it shake out.

I think we're halfway through the high season, the MJO has shut down a lot of TC formation potential I think, the NHC forecast has some potential to be a slight bust, but not guaranteed, there is still time and it's the season for Hurricane hype and climate change cross over messaging. I smell the slight tinge of "Sex Panther" here (it stings the nostrils) desperation and digital media over-hype, click and subscribe for more!

 

[John Farley]

I was amazed by the discontinuity of the forecasts and mentalities. the WPC had analyzed a front and low for a few days before and during the event attached to the system, the NHC detailed in its discussions about the atmospheric elements effecting potential TC formation and what was hindering them. The NWS however issued Tropical Storm warnings; Now, I get it, there may be a grey area here when there is a risk of sub-tropical/tropical potential formation, so maybe this was the most logical advisory/warning to issue, over say a high seas and high wind warnings?, but it muddies the waters to the less informed I think, they hear/see Tropical storm warning issuance, the Wx Channel also talks tropical storm, repeating the messaging, so , people just assume it's time for the "H" because winds were 50mph!, but it wasn't that simple and there were apparently competing forecasts and analysis at least the way I saw it shake out.

I think the tropical storm warning was actually the right call. The storm was quite consequential, with serious flooding and winds that easily met tropical storm wind strength criteria. The public does not understand or care about things like fronts and closed circulations - they want to know if they are going to get weather that impacts them, and a tropical storm warning is a fairly well-understood product that conveys the likely consequences of the storm, whether it technically meets the criteria for a tropical storm or not.

 

[Jason N]

I think the tropical storm warning was actually the right call. The storm was quite consequential, with serious flooding and winds that easily met tropical storm wind strength criteria. The public does not understand or care about things like fronts and closed circulations - they want to know if they are going to get weather that impacts them, and a tropical storm warning is a fairly well-understood product that conveys the likely consequences of the storm, whether it technically meets the criteria for a tropical storm or not.

John,

agreed in principle for sure. it's an area that I find interesting in terms of information/psychology of response and how information shapes people's responses and actions or lack thereof, but as for the folks who work on the inside, that was more who my post was geared towards to make light of how tangled it can get.

 

[James K]

When watching the evening news after the hurricane Milton tornadoes, they literally called it "terrible outbreak of possible tornadoes" ... while showing photos of tornadoes. .lol.

I was like: possible?? I think its very obvious those are tornadoes....