Panoramic Views Of Ike's Destruction = certain death

[beaudodson]

Anyone who thought the "certain death" was not justified, in some areas, should view these images. The Crystal Beach panoramic is sobering.

http://blogs.trb.com/news/weather/weblog/wgnweather/2008/11/panoramic_view_of_hurricane_ik.html

 

[rdale]

Anyone who thought the "certain death" was not justified, in some areashttp://blogs.trb.com/news/weather/weblog/wgnweather/2008/11/panoramic_view_of_hurricane_ik.html

...and for that I'll show you 99% of the region where "everyone will die" and they are still alive to this day...

 

[beaudodson]

Regardless, looking at those images I have little doubt in my mind that the NWS use of that language was justified. Thousands of homes are simply gone. Anyone in those homes would have "certainly" died.

I think the big issue was Galveston itself and the language in that particular area. Crystal Beach and many areas around there are destroyed.

What if all those people would have stayed? The death toll would have been staggering (not that we yet know what the toll is).

 

[rdale]

Regardless, looking at those images I have little doubt in my mind that the NWS use of that language was justified.

No need to rehash unless there's something new Tens of thousands of people stayed in a place where they were told they would die, yet they lived. So what happens next time they are told "leave or you will die"? They will remember the last time they were told that, and they will stay.

 

[MClarkson]

And they will probably live next time too, because the people that stayed and lived were mostly not in the unprotected surge zones.

 

[jeremy wilson]

No need to rehash unless there's something new

No, by all means, lets rehash. It looks like to me that certain death was a justified statement. If someone showed me this picture before the storm hit and told me this was what was gonna happen, I'd leave. So I think rehashing the certain death argument is a good thing "rdale". It was nothing but a miracle that many didn't die horrible deaths. Everyone for weeks later was expecting the death toll to rise because of the pics we were seeing. Lets put this pic on the cover of every major newspaper and headline it with "Certain Death". That will scare a few idiots into leaving next time.

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

Anyone who thought the "certain death" was not justified, in some areas, should view these images. The Crystal Beach panoramic is sobering.

http://blogs.trb.com/news/weather/weblog/wgnweather/2008/11/panoramic_view_of_hurricane_ik.html

This is one of the best reminders and displays that these type warnings should continue and are justified.
For any of those that don't agree, maybe they can be one of the first to stand in these spots, attempt to ride it out, and try to prove otherwise.

 

[rdale]

It looks like to me that certain death was a justified statement.

Again - 30000+ people that stayed behind were told they faced death. They are still alive. How can you justify that?

So I think rehashing the certain death argument is a good thing "rdale".

No need to put my name in quotes, I'm no more special than any other

Everyone for weeks later was expecting the death toll to rise because of the pics we were seeing.

I think people expected the death toll to rise because the NWS put in their bulletins that 30000 people would die.

I'm not going to speak for Chuck Doswell, so if you want to read his entire post check the Societal Impacts Program forum at http://www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/ but his points seem quite valid - that the role of the NWS is not to tell people what to do, and threats should not be exaggerated for any reason (let alone a non-meteorological one - if the EM wants to tell people they will die, that's his right, but the NWS should not be pushed to say such a thing unless it is "certain.")

The "certain death" statement was not based on any evidence that those people would die. As the NWS admitted, they did it because the EM wanted to scare the people that were staying behind, and that's not the role of meteorologists.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

I still stick with the argument that the "Certain Death" terminology was extreme and will cause more death next go around. It needs to be reworded to "Potential high death toll" or something else or people will stay in the danger zone out of spite when certain death is not realized. To me "Certain Death" implies a majority or extreme death toll. "Certain Death" Means it's gonna happen with no ifs ands or buts. Potential is strong enough that if you stay and die it is your fault.