Jeff Snyder
EF5
I originally mentioned this in the 6/26 NOW: TX/NM thread, but it fits much better in a new thread.
How often does the SPC update SWODY1s during off-hours (i.e. not 0600z, 1300z, 1630z, 2000z, or 0100z)? I've seen SWODY1s issued/updated at non-standard times a few times through the years, and the area experiencing tonight's derecho would have been a candidate for a categorical upgrade when it appeared that widespread, high-end winds would occur across the area. MD 1292 issued around 830pm mentioned the derecho with widespread/svr winds), and the 01z SWODY1 did increase svr wind probabilities to 30%. Then again, given the extent in time (and the time of day relative to the issuance of the 06z SWODY1) and space (perhaps most extremely damage reported in a 4-6 county area), perhaps this was best dealt with in a watch+warning manner.
Note that this isn't a critique of tonight's events; I'm sincerely curious about the policy for "special-time" updates to the Day 1. I've never heard of an official procedure for updating the SWODY1 during non-standard times, so this may be an issue of whether the forecaster(s) on duty feel it's beneficial. In this particular case, I'm not sure anyone really anticipated widespread damaging winds with embedded areas of extremely high winds (>74 mph, a couple of >90 mph gusts in this case) -- I certainly didn't! In fact, I was anticipating it being a relative non-event earlier this evening (before 8pm). *shrug* LOL
How often does the SPC update SWODY1s during off-hours (i.e. not 0600z, 1300z, 1630z, 2000z, or 0100z)? I've seen SWODY1s issued/updated at non-standard times a few times through the years, and the area experiencing tonight's derecho would have been a candidate for a categorical upgrade when it appeared that widespread, high-end winds would occur across the area. MD 1292 issued around 830pm mentioned the derecho with widespread/svr winds), and the 01z SWODY1 did increase svr wind probabilities to 30%. Then again, given the extent in time (and the time of day relative to the issuance of the 06z SWODY1) and space (perhaps most extremely damage reported in a 4-6 county area), perhaps this was best dealt with in a watch+warning manner.
Note that this isn't a critique of tonight's events; I'm sincerely curious about the policy for "special-time" updates to the Day 1. I've never heard of an official procedure for updating the SWODY1 during non-standard times, so this may be an issue of whether the forecaster(s) on duty feel it's beneficial. In this particular case, I'm not sure anyone really anticipated widespread damaging winds with embedded areas of extremely high winds (>74 mph, a couple of >90 mph gusts in this case) -- I certainly didn't! In fact, I was anticipating it being a relative non-event earlier this evening (before 8pm). *shrug* LOL
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