October Storm Chasing

I was pondering over models for weather and odds of free time wondering if I could get a 2 day chase in someplace.

As Amos pointed out in today's target thread models are indicating some hope (for those who rely heavily on this) for next week.. although that is forever away and will likely change a dozen times before then, I thought that since my car is back to its former prestine condition, why not give it a run..

Was thinking areas in Western, and Central Nebraska, southward through Kansas and into the TX/OK Panhandles.. basically something I could leave for early that morning and be back sometime the next day.. as with Amos, I may have a hard time dedicating more than a couple days..

I figure its safe to miss one day of each of my classes.. better yet, a chase starting on Thursday going into Friday.. then I only miss one class.. 8) Drawback being I work 6 days a week, so I'm going to lose a couple days there, too.. unless I get a Sunday/Monday deal! Then I'm in business.. have yet to chase long distances during football season.. wonder if I can pick up the Redskins near the Caprock! *LOL*

Anywoo, I thought I'd start this thread as a side note to those chasers who may go for the October action; primarily those chasers making long terms plans (like mine above), or those thinking of chasing days where small things may happen that wouldn't warrent a TARGET AREA thread..

Good luck to everyone.. tornadoes, fall colors, and football make for a wonderful time of year! Be safe and stay warm!
I'm hooked on October chasing as an SDS cure and because I got very lucky on 10-9-2001. I'm in the same position as Tony: chasing deep into the south plains is hard from Indiana, though it's no secret that I'm more comfortable down there than anyplace else. My sarcasm on the other topic aside, if I chased nothing but the Texas caprock for three weeks straight, I wouldn't complain. (Though maybe one Front Range day would be cool too---LOL). I enjoy it more than anywhere else for many reasons, some of which are admittedly subjective and personal.

Who knows what affects what, but you have to wonder how our moisture profile would have looked without those cool fronts. October often seems to be a one-shot deal, and I look at today's system and wonder if this was our shot. Another friend pointed out, however, that some great October events happen after a strong cold front (like the one coming) is yanked back north so that we have a nice boundary in place. This would be the case if the medium range system shapes up favorably.

Abbrievated daylight also makes October more challenging, but in some way, every chase is an act of faith, right? I'm pinning my hopes on next week and might even put the 5/8 waves back on the roof for good luck. :)
If you believe the GFS ten days out (Sunday, the 10th) :roll: then there's one setup chance in the Childress - Ardmore - Dallas area. Of course when the 18Z comes in, who knows....
I'm thinking if I want an October chase I better get outside and chase these rain showers tonight. That or wait for the snow that is just around the corner. Closing the door on 2004......
October traditionally has short lived/low intensity tornadoes, but the month does serve as a quick pick-me-up before winter and the looooooong wait for spring.
According to SPC data the past 3 years have averaged 55 Tors during October. At least a few of us should catch one. Just wait for January - what fun - the past 3 years have averaged 2 Tors for the month.
Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
I'm thinking if I want an October chase I better get outside and chase these rain showers tonight. That or wait for the snow that is just around the corner. Closing the door on 2004......

Tonight's forecast for Bellevue, NE...

"Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Breezy early. Cold overnight with freezing temperatures and scattered frost. Lows 25 to 30."

Yup, that's probably it for 2004. Time to buy a snowblower, I guess.
Yep Jeff, welcome to NE. At least it looks like a nice warm up right after this which should be followed by a couple weeks of amazingly nice weather. Following those 2 short weeks cold hell will come on in and stay till May 1st. We're due for a cold winter and they can really really suck. Nothing beats a month of single digit temps for highs....nothing.
Had a nice mini lightning chase looking out over the Superstitions. Burned half a roll or so and got a few CGs on the ridgetops. October in the Southwest United States can be sunny and dry, or has the potential of rain. Any lightning is icing on the cake, but does occur in winter storms. Staccato seems to be more common in the winter.
I actually look forward to the fall months here, because it signifies that we're getting into the dry season. The dry season brings ever-so-slightly better chances of 'real' tornadoes than the wet season, when we have basically no decent wind profiles EVER. Our first decent cold front of this dry season is scheduled to traverse our neighborhood around Friday.

Coincidentally, I'm also happy (particularly this year) that the dry seasonal pattern is a little bit less hurricane-friendly. :)
With temps only forecast in the upper 60s/lower 70s and zero precip the next 5-7 days around here, I'd say our year is pretty much done in OK. I'm starting to come around to the popular opinion that there isn't really a Fall season so much as a once-in-a-while, late-year opportunity.

I can live with that.
Living in Michigan means living on hope. After the November, 2002, outbreak in Ohio and at least one other relatively recent late-year episode, I won't be quite ready to give up until after Thanksgiving. All that needs to happen for another Van Wert event to occur is for me to stop checking the convective outlooks. :?
Don't put everything away yet folks. Next wednesday looks to have some potential. +15 temp/dewpoint spreads, winds strong up and down, nice shear. Might be something to watch
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