Andy Wehrle
EF5
As a newbie forecaster...I must ask, how to make sense of all this "spaghetti"? :?
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After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.
I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.
For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.
From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.
Sincerely, Jeff D.
NCEP "Spaghetti" map
- Thread starter Andy Wehrle
- Start date
As a newbie forecaster...I must ask, how to make sense of all this "spaghetti"? :?
William Scheftic
Well the image on the left in the links above show the mean 500mb geopotential height pattern that is the average of all members of the NCEP GFS ensemble package. Basically the NCEP runs several perturbations (slight changes to Initial Conditions [I.C.]) of the GFS, which produces forecasts from each run. The image on the right shows all the member's forecast for 5780 m (red) and 5580 m (light blue). If the members are agreeing on a solution then the lines will be close together, representing a continuity of solutions between the members, therefore more dependability in the operation GFS forecast. However, if the ensembles are all over the place then the forecast would be difficult to ascertain.
Here at 264 hours (11 days) the control run of the GFS is showing a split flow upper air pattern with a strong closed low between the split. While it is certainly difficult at 264 hours to truely ascertain the possibility of the operational GFS playing out, I think there is some good signs that point towards a split flow pattern. None of the ensemble members place a trough in the 5580 m contour over the CO/WY area. also none present a very amplified ridge pattern along the same location in the 5760 m pattern. Now the green lines which represent the climatological 500mb pattern at this time of year, certainly indicate the same basic split flow that this GFS's ensemble run have produced in the 11 day range. When the mean ensemble run does not deviate much from climatology then there is not much predictability in the run. The fact is, that out to 264 hours you have just as good of a chance of the 500mb climatological pattern playing out as the operational GFS. Typically the ensemble members are much more useful in the 5-7 day range as a forecasting tool.
Here at 264 hours (11 days) the control run of the GFS is showing a split flow upper air pattern with a strong closed low between the split. While it is certainly difficult at 264 hours to truely ascertain the possibility of the operational GFS playing out, I think there is some good signs that point towards a split flow pattern. None of the ensemble members place a trough in the 5580 m contour over the CO/WY area. also none present a very amplified ridge pattern along the same location in the 5760 m pattern. Now the green lines which represent the climatological 500mb pattern at this time of year, certainly indicate the same basic split flow that this GFS's ensemble run have produced in the 11 day range. When the mean ensemble run does not deviate much from climatology then there is not much predictability in the run. The fact is, that out to 264 hours you have just as good of a chance of the 500mb climatological pattern playing out as the operational GFS. Typically the ensemble members are much more useful in the 5-7 day range as a forecasting tool.
