Name that target

[Kurt Silvey]

This is (date of event) 00z data. So, unless I’m lost, this is 6:00 pm the day before the event.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

OK - so now that we know when these maps were generated and are looking a day ahead to the possible event/non-event ... my guestimation based on eyeballing these features is going to be for northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri into southwest Iowa ... I'm going to say that by 0z the following day, the surface low in Kansas will deepen, a warm front will move rapidly to the north, allowing for that moist, unstable air over Texas and Oklahoma to spread northward into Kansas and set the stage for severe weather in the afternoon as a shortwave approaches from the west. Now that we know the timing, we also know that the convection showing up in Kansas on that map was actually the pre-game show the night before. Go ahead and throw some 'day-of' obs up when you get a chance - that will definitely give us some more clues -

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Ok, in the interest of keeping things moving, here is a link to the target day 12z data. I thought a link would be better than posting all of the plots. I have a few more tidbits I’ll toss out this evening, and then I’ll post the solution later tonight.

http://www.pdswatch.com/ST_forecast/target...t_date_12z_data

 

[Mike Peregrine]

LOL - that did it ... now I know for SURE which day this was ... what a blast. (btw - my target is unchanged after looking at those obs)

 

[Shane Adams]

I never have a clue about these post-event scenarios because I don't remember what data maps look like after a chase day is over. But just for kicks, I'm getting up early and driving straight to Girard, KS, where I will sit on the west side of town sipping convenient store fountain cokes and waiting, despite Mike Peregrine's unbreakable confidence in Hiawatha :wink:

 

[nickgrillo]

Yeah, forget it... LOL I was slowly beginning to recognize it with the 00z data, but the 12z data has made it absolutely clear to me what day this is. Anyways, I'll do a brief analysis for fun...

A cold front extends from a surface low in southcentral NE and swings back around into the TX panhandle (with a warm front also extending eastward through southern IA) with a dryline mixing eastward from northwest OK southwestward into west TX. Looking at some of the warm sector observational soundings... A deep warm layer on the OUN ob should preclude any deep convection until ascent reaches the area in the afternoon. The TOP sounding shows a significant inversion as well, but also shows a vertical shear profile highly conductive for supercells. The best area appears to extend from southwest IA through southwest OK (where weaker convergance along the dryline may favor more isolated activity) where strong instability will coinside with favorable vertical shear for widespread severe thunderstorms (including likely tornadic supercells).

If I could have done this day over again, I would have went to northeast KS :lol:

 

[David Wolfson]

Things progressed just a little bit slower than I thought, but I'm wary of getting too far south or west because the nose of the speed max is where I think the action will be as it intersects the moisture and front(?). So I'm on the same track Mike is, and heading for Shelby, IA, on I-80 around 40 miles northeast of Omaha.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

But just for kicks, I'm getting up early and driving straight to Girard, KS, where I will sit on the west side of town sipping convenient store fountain cokes and waiting

Ha - I'd say Girard is a pretty safe bet too ... pretty good chance of bagging one, oh I'd say somewhere within a few miles of there by late afternoon/early evening.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Here's an SPC Mesoscale Discussion:

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID ZZZZ
TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH.
IT APPEARS SUPERCELLS COULD INITIATE AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMING IS ONGOING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MIGRATING
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME
FOCUSED ACROSS ...zzzz...BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. BUILDING/ DEEPENING CUMULUS
ARE ALREADY BECOMING INCREASINGLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THIS REGION.

CAP IS STILL SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BY PEAK HEATING...THIS
SHOULD BE BROKEN...AS EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET NOSING OUT ZZZ
OVERSPREADS ZZZ. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW
NEAR 70F ACROSS MUCH OF zzzz. MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL
APPROACH 4000 J/KG WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS... SUPPORTIVE OF VERY
INTENSE UPDRAFTS. HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS LIKELY
IN STRONGEST CELLS...AND TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY
WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...MOSTLY LIKELY IN AREA AROUND...?????

 

[Kurt Silvey]

OK I have to bug out, so I'll post this and then give the solution later tonight when I get home. So post your target!

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...APPROACH OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND AVAILABILITY OF EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR
4000 J/KG WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS ZZZ PORTION OF WATCH
AREA. STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD ZZZ BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...LONG
TRACK TORNADOES.

 

[nickgrillo]

I personally felt like southern KS (along the dryline) would have been the best shot for more chaseable tornadic storms due to isolation. In addition, there was even a weak OFB (from the late night / early morning severe storms) baking on the KS/OK border (northcentral). The day appeared very promising... Very rich boundary layer moisture (Td's increased into the lower 70s by the mid-afternoon) with strong insolation contributing to widespread extreme instability by the afternoon. Large-scale ascent associated with the amplifed mid-level wave was expected impinge the warm sector by the mid-afternoon, initiating widespread supercells.

I felt that activity along the front (northeast KS/northwest MO/southwest IA) would have become WAY too cluttered (which, it did, but it still paid off for a few chasers) so myself (and quite a few others) chose areas much further south along the dryline.

The day sucked for me though :lol:

 

[Gabe Garfield]

This day stunk! Darn road outs! We were on our way to the event of the day...but alas, a major north/south road was completely hosed! Also, we had car trouble, I was sick, and we saw no tornadoes whatsoever. Bleh.

Okay, my real target for this day was? Wichita, KS.

Gabe

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm interested to see what day this actually was, then I'll post my real target that day and what led me to that conclusion. (If I can remember).

 

[Charles Kuster]

For me, it was a close call between starting at Joplin, Missouri and Pittsburg, Kansas. I decided to go with Pittsburg, Kansas. I usually don't make specific city target areas, usually I make regional target areas (probably because I am not very good at forecasting ). Anyway, my regional area was southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

EDIT:

(probably because I am not very good at forecasting ).

Yep, that turned out to be true :lol:. Good thing I did not chase that day! I was off with my specific and regional. Good job to everyone who got it right and better luck to pathetic me next time. :lol:

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Ok here it is. I think most of you have it figured out. This was a nice easy one to start with, I’ll try to do another in a day or two, or maybe someone else would like to chime in. Anyway, congrats to those who got it and to those who scored on this day. I turned east when I should have went north, looked west instead of north, and some how managed to stick my head in the sand and missed this one when I was less than 5 miles away. Thanks for playing.

EDIT: If you targeted Bonneville, ID give yourself extra credit!