Name that target

[Kurt Silvey]

Ok with the weather being pretty mundane, with exception of the Deep South, I thought I would toss out a “Name that Targetâ€￾ game. It seems every winter these things come up and I usually enjoy participating, so thought I would try my hand at being director. My forecasting skills, or lack there of, obviously lag far behind many of you, but maybe some of us can learn something from this. Anyway here it goes: This may, or may not, be a some-what recent severe weather event day. I will post the 00z upper air charts now, and later will post the 12z info. After you have had time to digest and choose a target I may follow up with some additional info and finally post the conclusion. If you ask questions, I’ll try and post information which may provide some answers. Good Luck and no cheating!

 

[Kurt Silvey]

OK, my bad. I just realized it WAS possible to follow the image url back to my server and view the rest of the data I had prepared. I have hence removed the non-posted data so this will not temp someone. :lol: Enjoy.

 

[Scott Olson]

Hmm. I'll check back.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Kurt,

Is this 0z data from Day 1 or ~24 hours before the event? It looks like they're from the "Day 1" with the timing of the waves etc. The only reason I ask is because you mention you're going to post the morning data afterwards; did you mean the other way around?

Also, is it cheating to note the t-storm in progress at ICT? lol

This is cool stuff. I'm just trying to figure out what maps you're posting relative to the event.

A

 

[Gabe Garfield]

That sure looks a lot like June 12th of this year. I'm going to go with Jayton, TX for the time being.

Gabe

 

[Kurt Silvey]

This is 00z “day ofâ€￾ (same date as event or non-event). So if I didn’t screw things up, these should be ~ 24 hrs before.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

hmmm ... I don't know ... surface winds look pretty jumbled in the panhandle ... outflow boundaries? - - - I don't think this is June 12th, but will probably have to eat my words.

I'm going to go on a limb and say extreme eastern Kansas (from extreme southeast to northeast, depending on the warm front) on this one just for the wind environment ... we'll need the 700mb map to estimate lid strength this day too.

Fun idea ... I bet we could play with it some more and come up with some really fun games -

 

[Cstok]

OK... I'll take a chance here... and say... DDC.

 

[nickgrillo]

Kurt,

So if I understand you correctly... These are 00z (around 6:00 PM) the day before? By the way, try to archive some soundings as well (easily obtained through SPC events archive). Very cool topic, by the way, I'll post a discussion in a bit

 

[Scott Olson]

Oops! That changes a little! :lol:

 

[nickgrillo]

Kurt,

So if I understand you correctly... These are 00z (around 6:00 PM) the day before? By the way, try to archive some soundings as well (easily obtained through SPC events archive). Very cool discussion, by the way, I'll post a discussion in a bit

 

[Darin Brunin]

noticed some things that made me change my mind...will post in a bit

 

[Kurt Silvey]

here's the 00z 700 mb. I'll post some soundings with the morning 12z data.

 

[Karen Politte]

Sorry........I am totally confused!!! :lol:

I want to play.......it's always great when folks post this kind of chase-related quiz..........but you're gonna hafta tell me straight what timeframe this data is for. Is this for the EVENING BEFORE the evening of the event we are targeting, or the EVENING OF the event we are targeting????

LOL,

KR

 

[David Wolfson]

A day ahead I'd like to have a better sense of the synoptic upper air, e.g. where did the short wave come from and what's the hemispheric pattern been like? But based on this one set, the negative tilted short wave looks to fill somewhat and maybe even close off as the vmax spins NNE at, oh, about 20kts. That will put the area of interest north of Omaha the next afternoon.

The setup looks pretty promising, and well worth the trip to Sioux City, IA, with a likelihood that good moisture will stream up into western Iowa. 12Z data should tell a better story.

ed.: Karen I'm assuming Kurt means 00Z of the target day, i.e. the previous evening.