Name that target

Ok with the weather being pretty mundane, with exception of the Deep South, I thought I would toss out a “Name that Targetâ€￾ game. It seems every winter these things come up and I usually enjoy participating, so thought I would try my hand at being director. My forecasting skills, or lack there of, obviously lag far behind many of you, but maybe some of us can learn something from this. Anyway here it goes: This may, or may not, be a some-what recent severe weather event day. I will post the 00z upper air charts now, and later will post the 12z info. After you have had time to digest and choose a target I may follow up with some additional info and finally post the conclusion. If you ask questions, I’ll try and post information which may provide some answers. Good Luck and no cheating!

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OK, my bad. I just realized it WAS possible to follow the image url back to my server and view the rest of the data I had prepared. I have hence removed the non-posted data so this will not temp someone. :lol: Enjoy.
 
Kurt,

Is this 0z data from Day 1 or ~24 hours before the event? It looks like they're from the "Day 1" with the timing of the waves etc. The only reason I ask is because you mention you're going to post the morning data afterwards; did you mean the other way around?

Also, is it cheating to note the t-storm in progress at ICT? lol

This is cool stuff. I'm just trying to figure out what maps you're posting relative to the event.

A
 
This is 00z “day ofâ€￾ (same date as event or non-event). So if I didn’t screw things up, these should be ~ 24 hrs before.
 
hmmm ... I don't know ... surface winds look pretty jumbled in the panhandle ... outflow boundaries? - - - I don't think this is June 12th, but will probably have to eat my words.

I'm going to go on a limb and say extreme eastern Kansas (from extreme southeast to northeast, depending on the warm front) on this one just for the wind environment ... we'll need the 700mb map to estimate lid strength this day too.

Fun idea ... I bet we could play with it some more and come up with some really fun games -
 
Kurt,

So if I understand you correctly... These are 00z (around 6:00 PM) the day before? By the way, try to archive some soundings as well (easily obtained through SPC events archive). Very cool topic, by the way, I'll post a discussion in a bit :)
 
Kurt,

So if I understand you correctly... These are 00z (around 6:00 PM) the day before? By the way, try to archive some soundings as well (easily obtained through SPC events archive). Very cool discussion, by the way, I'll post a discussion in a bit :)
 
Sorry........I am totally confused!!! :lol:

I want to play.......it's always great when folks post this kind of chase-related quiz..........but you're gonna hafta tell me straight what timeframe this data is for. Is this for the EVENING BEFORE the evening of the event we are targeting, or the EVENING OF the event we are targeting????

LOL,

KR
 
A day ahead I'd like to have a better sense of the synoptic upper air, e.g. where did the short wave come from and what's the hemispheric pattern been like? But based on this one set, the negative tilted short wave looks to fill somewhat and maybe even close off as the vmax spins NNE at, oh, about 20kts. That will put the area of interest north of Omaha the next afternoon.

The setup looks pretty promising, and well worth the trip to Sioux City, IA, with a likelihood that good moisture will stream up into western Iowa. 12Z data should tell a better story.

ed.: Karen I'm assuming Kurt means 00Z of the target day, i.e. the previous evening.
 
OK - so now that we know when these maps were generated and are looking a day ahead to the possible event/non-event ... my guestimation based on eyeballing these features is going to be for northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri into southwest Iowa ... I'm going to say that by 0z the following day, the surface low in Kansas will deepen, a warm front will move rapidly to the north, allowing for that moist, unstable air over Texas and Oklahoma to spread northward into Kansas and set the stage for severe weather in the afternoon as a shortwave approaches from the west. Now that we know the timing, we also know that the convection showing up in Kansas on that map was actually the pre-game show the night before. Go ahead and throw some 'day-of' obs up when you get a chance - that will definitely give us some more clues -
 
LOL - that did it ... now I know for SURE which day this was ... what a blast. (btw - my target is unchanged after looking at those obs)
 
I never have a clue about these post-event scenarios because I don't remember what data maps look like after a chase day is over. But just for kicks, I'm getting up early and driving straight to Girard, KS, where I will sit on the west side of town sipping convenient store fountain cokes and waiting, despite Mike Peregrine's unbreakable confidence in Hiawatha :wink:
 
Yeah, forget it... LOL I was slowly beginning to recognize it with the 00z data, but the 12z data has made it absolutely clear to me what day this is. Anyways, I'll do a brief analysis for fun...

A cold front extends from a surface low in southcentral NE and swings back around into the TX panhandle (with a warm front also extending eastward through southern IA) with a dryline mixing eastward from northwest OK southwestward into west TX. Looking at some of the warm sector observational soundings... A deep warm layer on the OUN ob should preclude any deep convection until ascent reaches the area in the afternoon. The TOP sounding shows a significant inversion as well, but also shows a vertical shear profile highly conductive for supercells. The best area appears to extend from southwest IA through southwest OK (where weaker convergance along the dryline may favor more isolated activity) where strong instability will coinside with favorable vertical shear for widespread severe thunderstorms (including likely tornadic supercells).

If I could have done this day over again, I would have went to northeast KS :lol:
 
Things progressed just a little bit slower than I thought, but I'm wary of getting too far south or west because the nose of the speed max is where I think the action will be as it intersects the moisture and front(?). So I'm on the same track Mike is, and heading for Shelby, IA, on I-80 around 40 miles northeast of Omaha.
 
But just for kicks, I'm getting up early and driving straight to Girard, KS, where I will sit on the west side of town sipping convenient store fountain cokes and waiting

Ha - I'd say Girard is a pretty safe bet too ... pretty good chance of bagging one, oh I'd say somewhere within a few miles of there by late afternoon/early evening. ;)
 
Here's an SPC Mesoscale Discussion:

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID ZZZZ
TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH.
IT APPEARS SUPERCELLS COULD INITIATE AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMING IS ONGOING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MIGRATING
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME
FOCUSED ACROSS ...zzzz...BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. BUILDING/ DEEPENING CUMULUS
ARE ALREADY BECOMING INCREASINGLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THIS REGION.

CAP IS STILL SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BY PEAK HEATING...THIS
SHOULD BE BROKEN...AS EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET NOSING OUT ZZZ
OVERSPREADS ZZZ. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW
NEAR 70F ACROSS MUCH OF zzzz. MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL
APPROACH 4000 J/KG WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS... SUPPORTIVE OF VERY
INTENSE UPDRAFTS. HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS LIKELY
IN STRONGEST CELLS...AND TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY
WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...MOSTLY LIKELY IN AREA AROUND...?????
 
OK I have to bug out, so I'll post this and then give the solution later tonight when I get home. So post your target!

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...APPROACH OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND AVAILABILITY OF EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR
4000 J/KG WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS ZZZ PORTION OF WATCH
AREA. STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD ZZZ BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...LONG
TRACK TORNADOES.
 
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