Most Unexpected Successful Chases

I've been known to chase a lot of junk throughout the years and sometimes it's the "MRGL" days that wind up the most unexpected, especially in the northern Plains. Not all of these chases below are from that area, but many of them are. None of these events were prolific tornado producers and most were lower-end days, but that makes them even more unexpected.

June 28th, 2014: This was not supposed to be a chase day, nor was it a memorable day for most chasers (not a big event and no thread on here), but it was probably the night that I first fell in love with Nebraska. I got to a hotel in Lincoln, NE late in the afternoon on the 28th, prepping for the next day's chase. After checking in, I noticed a few blips on radar showing up to the northwest. I decided to give them a shot, since it was a relatively short drive. An expansive shelf cloud formed just as the sun was beginning to set, putting on a show in the western sky. I watched the storms slowly inch southeastward over the course of the next several hours. Later in the evening, I sat in a field with fireflies and constant lightning in the distance. The storms were not particularly severe, but it was the first time I had really watched storms in the Plains for any length of time without seeing many chasers around at all. I was still relatively new to chasing at this point, so it was a very new experience. Even though I had been in northeastern Nebraska less than two weeks earlier for a historic set of tornado chases, there was something about June 28th that was, in a different way, nearly as magical. https://www.quincyvagell.com/2014/06/28/nebraskan-night/

June 2nd, 2015: Again, not a big chase day, but it ended up being a headache for me that ended on a more pleasant note. It was the first time I've chased in North Dakota and it was very unremarkable for most of the day. Storms struggled to intensify and just before dusk, a deer jumped out in the middle of nowhere and totaled the front end of my car. I'm not sure if I was even chasing anymore at this point, but as I remained parked off the road in frustration, I noticed that a collapsing thunderstorm to the east looked much more impressive than one would have probably expected, based on radar. I didn't expect to have my car wrecked that day, but I also didn't expect to see decent storm structure after most of the day was a relative snooze-fest in the chase department. https://www.quincyvagell.com/2015/06/03/sunset-structure/

September 20th, 2015: This was perhaps one of the craziest plans I've ever had. I drove from Atlanta, GA to the Texas panhandle for what was a small target for a single, conditional chase day. Wind shear was low-end and instability was modest, but the ingredients were just enough for a long-lived, slow-moving supercell. I don't believe I saw anyone out chasing at all as I watched the storm grow and evolve. That was the first time I used the term "panhandle magic," a term I've used quite a bit since then. Compared to the previous two chases, the storm event map for this on SPC looks very bare, with only three total severe reports. By the looks of the storm, one might have expected more. https://www.quincyvagell.com/2015/11/14/panhandle-magic/

June 13th, 2016: I started the day in South Dakota, planned to chase in Colorado, but had no idea I'd see a tornado in Texas... After visiting Mount Rushmore the day prior, I left southwestern South Dakota for eastern Colorado. It was a long drive to get into position and after finally getting there, I was not thrilled by the messy nature of the storms. While striking out in Colorado once again (I had no tornadoes yet in the state in my young career and very few quality chases), I made a last ditch effort to the Texas panhandle, where a mesoscale setup was becoming increasingly favorable for severe storms. Just north of Amarillo, I watched an expansive, lowering wall cloud develop. A few funnels formed from time to time, but there was no tornado, yet. I went in for a closer look and for a few minutes, I watched a tornado form, just as the whole system went from photogenic to a sloppy mess of wind/rain/hail. The area was not outlined for a tornado threat via SPC at 13z, but went on to get a 5% delineation by 01z. https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2016-06-13-reports-co-ks-mt-nm-ok-tx-wy.29253/

August 3rd, 2016: This was one of those setups in which there were a lot of severe storms, but contrast was fairly low, storm modes were messy and most who were chasing were probably left driving in circles and/or hopelessly parked on the side of the road in frustration. It was almost sunset and radar looked like trash. Storms were not showing much rotation at all, but out of nowhere, one of these blips on radar quickly produced a tornado near Warwick, ND. The chase went from 0-60 in a flash and I found myself chasing a towering updraft, producing a tornado, back-lit by sunset. I didn't get particularly close, but in this case, that allowed me to get a better view of the storm's structure. https://www.quincyvagell.com/2016/08/04/north-dakota-tornado-aug-3-2016/

August 9th, 2016: One of my favorite non-tornado chases to date in terms of storm structure. The chase day was off to a slow start before an intense supercell formed in southeastern Montana. I began chasing the storm as it moved into northwestern South Dakota. Multiple supercells produced a show, along with a prolific mammatus display. https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2016-08-09-reports-mt-nd-sd.29317/

April 12th, 2018: This was my first wildfire chase and I had no idea what to expect. It ended up being the beginning of a historic wildfire event across western Oklahoma. Watching miles and miles of wildfires up-close was something I had never experienced before and I'm not in any rush to do it again. Even though it wasn't really a storm chase, it was certainly unexpected. https://www.quincyvagell.com/2018/04/16/wildfires/

May 11th, 2018: I meandered out to the Texas panhandle once again for a very conditional chase. Low-level moisture was lacking, a sizable capping inversion was in place and convergence was weak, so expectations were tempered. A wildfire ignited near Goodnight, TX and I attempted to go in for a closer look. Traffic detours shot that plan down fairly quickly and as it worked out, a dry thunderstorm ignited about 15 miles to the northeast. This fire-induced thunderstorm went on to evolve into a supercell. The thunderstorm created new fires with later lightning strikes and I think it's safe to say this was an unexpected outcome for the chase day. https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2018-05-11-reports-tx-wy.30182/

In general, I've had some marginal or otherwise low-expectation chase days wind up producing either prolifically photogenic storms and/or otherwise fascinating storms to chase. This is probably why I continue to chase just about anything that I'm able to, as you never know what you might find out there...
 
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Some nice answers!

There are a few days I've set out to chase and thought 'a tornado is possible today' but then the tornado which developed (which, in some ways, is a bit of surprise anyway on this kind of day) was vastly over expectation!

I think Campo, CO, on May 31st 2010 has to be my stand-out winner for this. This was a pretty marginal day all told for severe weather overall - we arrived at the storm in the early afternoon at Springfield, CO, and basically ambled south with it over the next 5-6 hours or so! Of course, it looked pretty cool and we saw a few funnels (the earlier tornado eluded us by hiding behind the precip) - but nothing could have prepared our collective eye to what unfolded just to our south! The perfect tornado!

Bennington, KS, on May 28th 2013 was another - of course, given the set-up and quite juicy airmass I was somewhat confident that a tornado should be 'do-able' - but not the size and longevity!
 
7/11/17. when i'm pretty sure, based on my 30 sec long exposure i caught tornado/waterspout over lake Michigan (left from lightning). We had like six rounds of storms that night and morning and i was about to hop into my truck around 9 am. Some of these storms were supercells according to GRlevel2analyst readings and they were in transition into linear storm mode. I reported this, gave the permission to NWS Chicago to use the photo but after that silence. And there was something over the lake around 2 am!

Waterspout over lake Michigan 7/11/17. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

4/29/17. Funnel / or maybe tornado over Farina IL, some wind damage was reported around. This area is like border of NWS St Louis and NWS Lincoln, and great example of bureaucratic labyrinth. I reported this to NWS St Louis and got only silence.
All these events stayed in shadow of unfortunate and sad thing which happened around Canton TX.

This boy was classic example, and my first MCS funnel / tornado. And my confirmation of a lesson what to follow in MCS.

Farina IL 4/29/17. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr
 
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I have to include another tornado that surprised my brother and I around 2010 in Northern Texas. We were watching the business end of a slow moving supercell that couldn’t quite get it done. Another much smaller cell popped up just to the SE of the storm we were watching. When the NWS gave it a severe warning we looked over our left shoulders to take a look at it and saw a really nice tornado already planted on the ground. It lasted about 1 1/2 minutes and shortly after it dissipated the NWS posted a tornado warning on it. That was a good lesson on paying attention.
 
And while on 1 december 2019, gets a better storm with wall cloud
 

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I saw one on May 1, 2006 driving home from Peoria back to Galesburg. It was off in the distance, pretty sure it was a landspout.

May 9, 2016: I saw 2 tornadoes in Western IL along the warm front, I was doing my final for one of my classes and I got out of class, drove south and there were tornadoes ongoing underneath rain showers.

June 21, 2018: I headed out of my house south of Galesburg to watch some storms as I do during the summer. I got one cell in Southern Knox County and tracked it east where it picked up a tornado warning as I saw a funnel descend about halfway down. Other spotters confirmed it as a tornado, which I did see dust getting lofted when I first noticed the lowering.

July 16, 2015: Probably one of my top chases ever. There was a 2% out for tornadoes, but the atmosphere said different. Showing significant tornado parameters spiking over 5 and high CAPE/shear combo along the warm front. Kholby Martin and I tracked one supercell from Burlington Iowa to Galesburg, IL seeing numerous tornadoes (losing count) including a couple significant tornadoes. It was somewhat soured by coming up on Cameron, IL right after it took a hit by a strong tornado.

All 4 of these events were 2% days.

0% days I only have 2 stories:

May 23, 2017: I saw a landspout tornado near Maquon, IL right around sunset. There were 3 tornadoes in the state this day. I saw a funnel about 3/4 to the ground after this that may have been a tornado. NWS confirmed the landspout as an EF-0 tornado with 85 mph winds.

August 16, 2018: I almost saw one last year on August 16th but I left the storm and went to lunch lol. About an hour later it produced a tornado in Fulton County, IL. I'm pretty sure it was a landspout, but still burns.


Those are my war stories. There are probably many more but those few come to mind at the moment.

I live just in Dunlap and saw that same cells on June 22nd and August 16th 2018

June 22nd
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June 21st
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August 16th
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Unfortunately no surprises of actual tornadoes, as to this day I haven't witnessed one (despite several funnels over the years). I don't remember the exact dates or years these occurred, as they were a decade or more ago. But on 2 different occasions I was surprised by waterspouts.

One was around 2003, give or take a year or 2, at my grandma's house on Mobile Bay near Fairhope, AL. We were sitting on the porch and out of nowhere there was a waterspout a mile or two out. It hung out for a few minutes and was gone. This was the storm that caused my fear of severe weather to begin turning into a passion.

The second instance was in the mid-late 2000s in Orange Beach, AL. We were driving down the main road along the water under sunny skies, with just some innocent looking clouds out over the water. Stopped at a gas station, and when we came out those innocent looking clouds had a waterspout under them, with a second funnel hanging out too. It was a pretty cool addition to the vacation.
 
Rice, TX. If Bridget hadn't goaded me off the couch when a storm formed just northeast of us, we never would've left the apartment. I knew there was a risk, but we'd already burned our Friday and Saturday chasing storms that were warned but never came close to producing tornadoes. I figured why waste the whole weekend on what looked like a fairly similar setup to the previous two days. But to my credit, despite ignoring the potential and not making a forecast, once we were on the road I had a hunch how things were going to go down, so we ditched the original storm and headed southeast to the area where the Rice storm would rapidly develop a short time later. The rest is history.
 
April 30, 2012 near Medford, OK. My only real 0% tornado day but they put a 2 or 5 later in the day. Most were in the 5% tornado risk in the Texas Panhandle after a good day the night before near Lubbock. I texted my boss at 10pm in Lubbock the night previous and asked him if I could take the day off Monday the 30th, and he said nope, so I drove home. Turned out to be a good thing, as I noticed the outflow boundary/effective warm front from the flooding rains the night before in Northern Oklahoma and went up after work.
 
June 23, 2018 near Mitchell, SD. My family was on a trip out the Black Hills and we camped at the KOA in Mitchell. There was a 2% risk out, and some typical summer thunderheads along I-90. I didn't feel any need to pay any additional attention to the weather, such as peeking at radar. As we're setting up the tent at the campground, there in the distance was a wall cloud and a funnel was coming down. It was a ridiculous set of circumstances... looking in the right direction though a narrow treeless view at the right moment. To top it off I think it was the only 2018 tornado I had.

You can see a little nub just to the left of the pole and under the cloud base.
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I grabbed the good camera and got this with the 200mm zoom, cropped and contrast enhanced.
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I believe the official report put the tornado about 13 miles away.
 
I'd say the March 29th, 2019 Falcon, Colorado tornado. Dews were <40, temps were in the 40s, and there was snow on the rear flank!
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I saw a cell developing from home to the North, and followed it North-Then East.
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I decided to fill the gas tank just in case I went decently far, I just wanted to take pictures of such a beautiful storm. I picked up a friend just outside of town, and we started heading East. Finally it started to pour blinding rain and small hail, so we decided to go back towards the West. While driving West I noticed a brief funnel outside of my window, so we pulled over on street that went North to get off of the highway and got to see a couple more funnels.
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The one you can see in the background eventually touched down.
And it was the only tornado in the country that day!
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At September 4th and 6th 2020 would be a unexpected chsse since i captured storms on 2 different day while september 5th was bust. At September 4th 2020, i captured some storms with possible wall clouds.20200904_183506_mfnr.jpgit attempted to produce tornado but failed, but atleast i captured some nice storms. September 5th was a bust, few storms did formed but dissipated quickly. But then at September 6th 2020 was another successful day since i captured a nice storms with some possible funnels or maybe tornadoes but it's hard to tell since it's little bit far away. 20200906_182956_mfnr.jpgThe storm also took some supercell characteristic in visual since i did not use radar at the time i took photos 20200906_182830_mfnr.jpg I think this is funnel cloud or wall cloud or even tornado since it was hard to tell, i take the photo of the lowering took a cone shape and i think it's rotating. The storm also had nice clear slot 20200906_183836_mfnr.jpg It was the best storm chase day and i captured a lot of images of the storm. But yeah i forgot this one : 20200906_182250.jpgThis feature looks like a funnel but i can't say for sure, but i'm 90% sure that this is tornado or funnel cloud or even suspicious lowering and 10% cloud structure. Could this feature a tornado or funnel cloud or even a scud cloud.
 
At September 4th and 6th 2020 would be a unexpected chsse since i captured storms on 2 different day while september 5th was bust. At September 4th 2020, i captured some storms with possible wall clouds.View attachment 20897it attempted to produce tornado but failed, but atleast i captured some nice storms. September 5th was a bust, few storms did formed but dissipated quickly. But then at September 6th 2020 was another successful day since i captured a nice storms with some possible funnels or maybe tornadoes but it's hard to tell since it's little bit far away. View attachment 20898The storm also took some supercell characteristic in visual since i did not use radar at the time i took photos View attachment 20899 I think this is funnel cloud or wall cloud or even tornado since it was hard to tell, i take the photo of the lowering took a cone shape and i think it's rotating. The storm also had nice clear slot View attachment 20900 It was the best storm chase day and i captured a lot of images of the storm. But yeah i forgot this one : View attachment 20901This feature looks like a funnel but i can't say for sure, but i'm 90% sure that this is tornado or funnel cloud or even suspicious lowering and 10% cloud structure. Could this feature a tornado or funnel cloud or even a scud cloud.
Oh i forgot this one, this one looks convincing to me since it looks like a wedge tornado but i cannot say for sure yet since i was too far away.20200906_183940_mfnr.jpg
 
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