More record-breaking heat for southern Plains

[Tim Vasquez]

I just saw this in the NWS Fort Worth discussion earlier today.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES SOAR OUT OF CONTROL TUESDAY IF WINDS GO SW-W IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ECMWF/GFS PROGS AS THEY STAND NOW...SHOW UPPER 90S OR 100 DEGREES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW[/b]

Well, that's par for the course. The all-time record high for April at DFW is 100 degrees, so if we break that it would be a very significant event. To me it feels like we haven't had a real winter this year, and that's the first time I've been able to say that since I lived in the Philippines.

Tim

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

It has been around or above 80 here several days now. Tomorrow is forecast to be 88 which would be a record. I think our average is still in the low 60s here. I'll take this over last early season any day. May 1st 2005 at noon showed it snowing in NE, SD, and ND.

 

[Karen Politte]

Hah.

I haven't seen a real winter in this country yet (moved here in 2002). At least not where *I* have lived over here. Just look at it this way - if you *like* winter, there's absolutely no point in living in Texas or Oklahoma. Period.

Also - it doesn't surprise me at all that there is record-breaking heat in the forecast. We seem to do this every year - no matter the month. It is a fact that this country - and likely the world - are heating up at a rapid pace and there's not a damn thing we can do about it. It seems like EVERY year since I've been here - not only have I scoffed at what these Oklahomans call winter - but also I've been fried to crispy golden-brown by mid-April.

OUN hit 90 yesterday.

It's GREAT. Not.

K.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Hah.

I haven't seen a real winter in this country yet (moved here in 2002). At least not where *I* have lived over here. Just look at it this way - if you *like* winter, there's absolutely no point in living in Texas or Oklahoma. Period.

Also - it doesn't surprise me at all that there is record-breaking heat in the forecast. We seem to do this every year - no matter the month. It is a fact that this country - and likely the world - are heating up at a rapid pace and there's not a damn thing we can do about it. It seems like EVERY year since I've been here - not only have I scoffed at what these Oklahomans call winter - but also I've been fried to crispy golden-brown by mid-April.

OUN hit 90 yesterday.

It's GREAT. Not.

K.
[/b]

Having lived in Oklahoma all my life, I must say, this a very rare occurrence of high temperatures. Usually, we see a 90+F reading a day or two in March/April, but I don't recall nature stringing so many hot days together.

Believe it or not, winter used to happen in the Southern Plains. The late 80s featured many a snowstorm/icestorm, as well as the early 2000s. This is really the first winter I recall where we never had a truly arctic frontal passage.

We could be in it for this summer, or we could get a rainy June/July, as in past years. However, I'm willing to bet the former.

Gabe

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm daydreaming of the time when we get to chase a surface low south of I70... So far, the short-term forecast (<7 days) certainly resembles something I'd expect during a drought year. Yes, we've had some recent rainfall, but many areas down here are still at least abnormally dry (if not still in a drought). As was suggested earlier this year, drier soil means more sensible heating and higher temperatures. With greater sensible/diabatic heating in the low-levels, the midlevel heights rise and a ridge builds. While I certainly can't confidently say much about the rest of the chase season in the plains, I am becoming increasingly concerned that we may not see a real chase season in OK / TX thi s year (e.g more than a couple of chase days). I'm really hoping we get a strong cold front into the central or southen US (but please, stay out of the Gulf!), and a week or two of soaking rains in NM and western OK/TX/KS would be very nice. However, there is a feedback that's working against us right now (drier soil, higher temps, more ridging aloft, less forcing for precipitation, less evapotranspiration, less low-level moisture, decreased chance of precipitation, drier soils, higher temps, etc). Of course, a global pattern change could help bring about conditions that favor more rainfall down here, and a cold-air invasion from the north would help drop mid- and upper-level heights as well...

Maybe I should just go back to MN. LOL I came down to OU in Fall of 2001, and my first chases down here were in the spring of 2002. Since I've been down here, OK hasn't been very active in terms of tornadic supercells. Yes, there have been a few days during which there was a tornadic supercell or two in OK (5-4-03, 5-8-03, 5-29-04, etc), but I don't think we've seen a real 'tornado outbreak' in the state since 10-9-01. Now, can we list how many days KS/NE/SD has seen with 2 or more tornadic supercells since 2001? At least west TX had a nice year last year.

At least this morning's NAM offers some hope for dryline chasing on Saturday (with 850mb temps a couple of degrees cooler in places), but that's for another thread...

 

[Joe Zemek]

High in Phoenix around 95 today. We'll be sending our 850 temps out your way soon (sorry bout that). ON the plus side the low will bring in enough cooler air to drop us down to 81 on Saturday, so that sounds somewhat strong.

I was hoping for a soggy Arizona April ala 99, but it's not to be. I think the Southern Plains are in for another dry, subpar spring. Hoepfully June will see some moisture persisting in the Central Plains.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Wow, P28 in s KS is now 98. They'll pass 100. It's 88 here in eastern NE so I'm assuming we'll break 90. Ah I see a 90 in sw IA now. I hope we aren't 90/55 come Saturday.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Wow, P28 in s KS is now 98. They'll pass 100. It's 88 here in eastern NE so I'm assuming we'll break 90. Ah I see a 90 in sw IA now. I hope we aren't 90/55 come Saturday.
[/b]

It's also 98 degrees right now in Cherokee OK (north-central OK). We're at 87F here in OUN, but the heat is just to the northwest. It looks like we won't get into the baking range today, or at least we won't as long as our winds don't turn to the SW or W. The >95F temps are all in areas with SW or W winds.

 

[Jeff Lawson]

I fly into DFW on Tuesday. Lovely.

84 degrees F here north of Denver at the moment... feels great, actually.

 

[Chad Ringley]

However, there is a feedback that's working against us right now (drier soil, higher temps, more ridging aloft, less forcing for precipitation, less evapotranspiration, less low-level moisture, decreased chance of precipitation, drier soils, higher temps, etc). Of course, a global pattern change could help bring about conditions that favor more rainfall down here, and a cold-air invasion from the north would help drop mid- and upper-level heights as well...
[/b]

Let's hold off on this until the end of the month, K!??! This is making myself and the east-coast chasing contigent who had been targeting Mid-May for OK/TX chasing VERY NERVOUS. As you pointed out, this domino effect on the moisture was a concern that you and I talked about WAY back in January, and now, it's coming to pass.

I forsee many cap-bust days along the dryline in my future....

 

[Tim Vasquez]

This is making myself and the east-coast chasing contigent who had been targeting Mid-May for OK/TX chasing VERY NERVOUS.[/b]

I hope those flights are on Northwest or Air Canada, as it will make your last-minute flight changes go much more smoothly!

On a serious note, the latest GFS has toned down those temperatures a bit due to a faster advancement of the polar front southward.

Tim

 

[Jeff Miller]

Sioux City, Iowa hit 90 degrees at 3:33 PM CST. This is the 4th earliest 90 degree day in Sioux City, breaking a record set in 2003. Before 2003, 1991, 1968 and 1929 were the earlier occasions to break 90 here in Sioux City.

Record breaking heat clear up to the Northern Plains, and it feels like summer.

 

[Dan Robinson]

We'll just have to start threads about nice places to eat on I-90.

 

[Shane Adams]

Just another reason not to come to the S Plains. I don't understand why you fools even entertain the notion :lol:

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Come on, don't knock the southern Plains. Where else would we get cool pics like these?

Isn't that David Drummond's back yard?

Tim