More record-breaking heat for southern Plains

I just saw this in the NWS Fort Worth discussion earlier today.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES SOAR OUT OF CONTROL TUESDAY IF WINDS GO SW-W IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ECMWF/GFS PROGS AS THEY STAND NOW...SHOW UPPER 90S OR 100 DEGREES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW[/b]

Well, that's par for the course. The all-time record high for April at DFW is 100 degrees, so if we break that it would be a very significant event. To me it feels like we haven't had a real winter this year, and that's the first time I've been able to say that since I lived in the Philippines.

Tim
 
It has been around or above 80 here several days now. Tomorrow is forecast to be 88 which would be a record. I think our average is still in the low 60s here. I'll take this over last early season any day. May 1st 2005 at noon showed it snowing in NE, SD, and ND.
 
Hah.

I haven't seen a real winter in this country yet (moved here in 2002). At least not where *I* have lived over here. Just look at it this way - if you *like* winter, there's absolutely no point in living in Texas or Oklahoma. Period.

Also - it doesn't surprise me at all that there is record-breaking heat in the forecast. We seem to do this every year - no matter the month. It is a fact that this country - and likely the world - are heating up at a rapid pace and there's not a damn thing we can do about it. It seems like EVERY year since I've been here - not only have I scoffed at what these Oklahomans call winter - but also I've been fried to crispy golden-brown by mid-April.

OUN hit 90 yesterday.

It's GREAT. Not.

K.
 
Hah.

I haven't seen a real winter in this country yet (moved here in 2002). At least not where *I* have lived over here. Just look at it this way - if you *like* winter, there's absolutely no point in living in Texas or Oklahoma. Period.

Also - it doesn't surprise me at all that there is record-breaking heat in the forecast. We seem to do this every year - no matter the month. It is a fact that this country - and likely the world - are heating up at a rapid pace and there's not a damn thing we can do about it. It seems like EVERY year since I've been here - not only have I scoffed at what these Oklahomans call winter - but also I've been fried to crispy golden-brown by mid-April.

OUN hit 90 yesterday.

It's GREAT. Not.

K.
[/b]

Having lived in Oklahoma all my life, I must say, this a very rare occurrence of high temperatures. Usually, we see a 90+F reading a day or two in March/April, but I don't recall nature stringing so many hot days together.

Believe it or not, winter used to happen in the Southern Plains. The late 80s featured many a snowstorm/icestorm, as well as the early 2000s. This is really the first winter I recall where we never had a truly arctic frontal passage.

We could be in it for this summer, or we could get a rainy June/July, as in past years. However, I'm willing to bet the former.

Gabe
 
I'm daydreaming of the time when we get to chase a surface low south of I70... So far, the short-term forecast (<7 days) certainly resembles something I'd expect during a drought year. Yes, we've had some recent rainfall, but many areas down here are still at least abnormally dry (if not still in a drought). As was suggested earlier this year, drier soil means more sensible heating and higher temperatures. With greater sensible/diabatic heating in the low-levels, the midlevel heights rise and a ridge builds. While I certainly can't confidently say much about the rest of the chase season in the plains, I am becoming increasingly concerned that we may not see a real chase season in OK / TX thi s year (e.g more than a couple of chase days). I'm really hoping we get a strong cold front into the central or southen US (but please, stay out of the Gulf!), and a week or two of soaking rains in NM and western OK/TX/KS would be very nice. However, there is a feedback that's working against us right now (drier soil, higher temps, more ridging aloft, less forcing for precipitation, less evapotranspiration, less low-level moisture, decreased chance of precipitation, drier soils, higher temps, etc). Of course, a global pattern change could help bring about conditions that favor more rainfall down here, and a cold-air invasion from the north would help drop mid- and upper-level heights as well...

Maybe I should just go back to MN. LOL I came down to OU in Fall of 2001, and my first chases down here were in the spring of 2002. Since I've been down here, OK hasn't been very active in terms of tornadic supercells. Yes, there have been a few days during which there was a tornadic supercell or two in OK (5-4-03, 5-8-03, 5-29-04, etc), but I don't think we've seen a real 'tornado outbreak' in the state since 10-9-01. Now, can we list how many days KS/NE/SD has seen with 2 or more tornadic supercells since 2001? At least west TX had a nice year last year.

At least this morning's NAM offers some hope for dryline chasing on Saturday (with 850mb temps a couple of degrees cooler in places), but that's for another thread...
 
High in Phoenix around 95 today. We'll be sending our 850 temps out your way soon (sorry bout that). ON the plus side the low will bring in enough cooler air to drop us down to 81 on Saturday, so that sounds somewhat strong.

I was hoping for a soggy Arizona April ala 99, but it's not to be. I think the Southern Plains are in for another dry, subpar spring. Hoepfully June will see some moisture persisting in the Central Plains.
 
Wow, P28 in s KS is now 98. They'll pass 100. It's 88 here in eastern NE so I'm assuming we'll break 90. Ah I see a 90 in sw IA now. I hope we aren't 90/55 come Saturday.
 
Wow, P28 in s KS is now 98. They'll pass 100. It's 88 here in eastern NE so I'm assuming we'll break 90. Ah I see a 90 in sw IA now. I hope we aren't 90/55 come Saturday.
[/b]

It's also 98 degrees right now in Cherokee OK (north-central OK). We're at 87F here in OUN, but the heat is just to the northwest. It looks like we won't get into the baking range today, or at least we won't as long as our winds don't turn to the SW or W. The >95F temps are all in areas with SW or W winds.
 
However, there is a feedback that's working against us right now (drier soil, higher temps, more ridging aloft, less forcing for precipitation, less evapotranspiration, less low-level moisture, decreased chance of precipitation, drier soils, higher temps, etc). Of course, a global pattern change could help bring about conditions that favor more rainfall down here, and a cold-air invasion from the north would help drop mid- and upper-level heights as well...
[/b]

Let's hold off on this until the end of the month, K!??! This is making myself and the east-coast chasing contigent who had been targeting Mid-May for OK/TX chasing VERY NERVOUS. As you pointed out, this domino effect on the moisture was a concern that you and I talked about WAY back in January, and now, it's coming to pass.

I forsee many cap-bust days along the dryline in my future....
 
This is making myself and the east-coast chasing contigent who had been targeting Mid-May for OK/TX chasing VERY NERVOUS.[/b]

I hope those flights are on Northwest or Air Canada, as it will make your last-minute flight changes go much more smoothly!

On a serious note, the latest GFS has toned down those temperatures a bit due to a faster advancement of the polar front southward.

Tim
 
Sioux City, Iowa hit 90 degrees at 3:33 PM CST. This is the 4th earliest 90 degree day in Sioux City, breaking a record set in 2003. Before 2003, 1991, 1968 and 1929 were the earlier occasions to break 90 here in Sioux City.

Record breaking heat clear up to the Northern Plains, and it feels like summer.
 
We'll just have to start threads about nice places to eat on I-90.
 
Just another reason not to come to the S Plains. I don't understand why you fools even entertain the notion :lol:
 
Come on, don't knock the southern Plains. Where else would we get cool pics like these?

dust.jpg


Isn't that David Drummond's back yard?

Tim
 
Well, quite a few records broken in KS today (Salina, Russell, Wichita, etc), some of which broke the old records by 3-4F. Here's an interesting one:

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE("DDC Record Event Report")</div>
MEDICINE LODGE REACHED TRIPLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECORD
SETTING HIGH OF 100 DEGREES. THIS SMASHED THEIR PREVIOUS HIGH OF 92
DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN 1981. THIS WAS ALSO THE EARLIEST 100
DEGREE READING ON RECORD FOR MEDICINE LODGE...SHATTERING THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF APRIL 29TH BY 16 DAYS. [/b]

Great.
 
You from MN Jeff? Cool, me too. I'm fine with chasing in the northern plains if I was there at the right time of year. If I remember... 2003? Iowa was getting hammered week after week, and it appears to be occuring this year too (so far in the month of April.) When I go back during summer I have work and my work schedule blocks are by the month, so taking time off for a known chase day is almost impossible. Anyways for location, I am happy chasing anywhere south, west, or NW of MSP. North or east of MSP will leave you in the land of 10 million trees (especially north).

Anyone for duststorm chasing?

Maybe... maybe... the much higher than usual hurricane forecast for this year will produce a T.S. that plows right up through central TX. I'm not saying I want destruction, just moisture. That would bump the moisture at the surface up through OK given southerly winds. However, I can picture it already: a nice TS dumping insane amounts of rain on south TX with radar echoes continuously dissapearing along E-W line north of Houston. Of course, one negative feedback would be the ocean temps along the path of the TS lowering. *sigh :(

gfs180hr_500_wnd.gif

-Thanks UCAR
 
Daily high temperature and warmest minimum temperature records fell all over the area today... Here is a brief synopsis:

Oklahoma City: 98 (old record: 92 in 1987)
Dallas / Fort Worth: 101 (old record: 94) ** All-time record high for Aprilhttp://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=RER&sid=DFW&date=20060417220531 (old: 100 in 1925)
Waco: 97 (old: 93)
Fort Smith: 94 (old: 90 in 1945)
Tulsa: 94 (old: 92 in 1987)
Fayetteville: 93 (old: 84 in 2002) ** All-time record high for April (old: 90 in 1972)
Wichita Falls: 101 (old: 98 in 1928)
 
This is a bit off-topic, but I think worth noting: I'm looking at metars, and Trinidad CO reported T/Td of 81/-8F an hour ago. Springfield CO: 89/-4.

Can you say dewpoint depression?
 

I was out in that all day working. I figured it was hot, but I didn't realize it was all-time record hot. I guess we're better conditioned than we thought B)

This now makes two all-time record highs for Dallas I've worked through. I also worked in early September 2000 (forget the exact date) when the temp was 111. I don't know what the heat index was, but I guarantee it rivaled any HI Iowa's ever had in the Summer corn fields.
 
I was out in that all day working. I figured it was hot, but I didn't realize it was all-time record hot. I guess we're better condionted than we thought B)
[/b]
Just when you thought the heat was enough....Noooooo...lets do rolling brownouts!

80% of Texas was under rolling brownout orders this afternoon. I was one of the first affected, weird because all that funky stuff usually stays with Houston and leaves me alone over here. Tomorrow may deal us the same hand. 15-20 mionutes of sticky fun!

Its 12:15am and still 74. Ick. Since when did summer start in April?
 
This will probably continue again today as the DFW Metroburbia will more than likely set another record this afternoon...



Notice of Power Outages From TXU
-----------------------------------------------------

TXU Electric Delivery Shuts Down Sections of System To Assist ERCOT

DALLAS -- April 17, 2006. --- TXU Electric Delivery began reducing
load by shutting power off to sections of its System today as the Electric
Reliability Council of Texas System moved to its highest emergency level.
At 4:24 p.m., ERCOT requested that every electric delivery company in the
state reduce load throughout system. This is the fourth and most drastic
step in the ERCOT emergency curtailment plan.

"We're urging everyone experiencing an emergency at this time to
please call 911," said Rob Trimble, president and chief operating officer,
TXU Electric Delivery. " Temperatures are close to 100 degrees and ERCOT
has requested our help. TXU Electric Delivery is working closely with
ERCOT to ensure the state's electric grid remains stable and providing
power during this time."

TXU Electric Delivery is currently reducing load by 380 megawatts,
rotating outages every 15 minutes in pre-designated areas. These are
planned outages designed to protect the state's grid during a period of
instability. At 4:30 p.m., approximately 28,000 customers were affected in
the Dallas area and East Texas.

TXU Electric Delivery Company, the transmission and distribution
subsidiary of TXU Corp., delivers power to approximately three million
electric delivery points over more than 100,000 miles of distribution and
14,000 miles of transmission lines.

Additional TXU Electric Delivery information can be obtained at
www.txuelectricdelivery.com
 
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