Legislation to Create a National Disaster Review Board

[Jason N]

I've long thought a classical education in math & physics doesn't suddenly turn someone into a competent weather forecaster.
We need improved training & mentorship once hired. Additionally, over-reliance on computer models can erode skill in actual prediction.
As an aside, OKC's Mike Morgan impressed me as an example of a meteorologist who didn't live and predict only by the computer output.

I wonder if the paradigm over the past 10-15yrs focusing on creating on the high-resolution modeling/research has had negative impacts over say, good operational meteorology? I've personally witnessed a forecaster with an operational Met degree from Mississippi State outperform a Purdue and OU grad. Now, one might argue plenty about the nuances of schools and focus areas, but I to think a lot of these things were pretty obvious as well looking back. So, to your larger point, I totally agree, pedigree inherently does not, a good forecaster, make.

 

[Jason N]

The NWS is in serious trouble. NWS is starving for resources and no one at NOAA HQ cares. The rejection of Barry Myers at NOAA administrator is one of the stupidest things our Senate has done in the last 20 years (which is saying something)!! We need to move the NWS out of NOAA and into an independent agency. I suspect much more needs to be done but we need a NDRB -- desperately.

what do you think this is based on? a shift in the budget to focus on AGW/Climate issues? global interests that turn attention away from national ones? a shift in the desire to replace human for AI? or just bad management by sycophants getting caught up in bad politics? and how long has this been really going on? .. it seems to me from my outside looking in, that it has to be more than several years now.

 

[Mike Smith]

what do you think this is based on? a shift in the budget to focus on AGW/Climate issues? global interests that turn attention away from national ones? a shift in the desire to replace human for AI? or just bad management by sycophants getting caught up in bad politics? and how long has this been really going on? .. it seems to me from my outside looking in, that it has to be more than several years now.

Even among my retired NWS friends who agree forecasts are getting worse and the NWS and there is a lot currently wrong in the NWS, very few agree as to the reason. This is part of why I am pushing so hard for the NDRB.

It is just like FEMA and "confiscating relief supplies." I can't possibly imagine why they would do that but almost every major disaster is followed by accusations of FEMA doing just that. We need an expert, neutral board to investigate all of this and recommend fixes.

Additional thought: One thing just about all they agree on is that training, especially as regard tornado warnings and radar in general are a big problem. From ~1992 to the early 2000's the NWS had a 5-week radar/warning school in OKC. That was disbanded the the training hasn't been the same since (according to several retirees). So, as my generation retired, they not only took the experience, they took the training with them.

 

[Jason N]

Additional thought: One thing just about all they agree on is that training, especially as regard tornado warnings and radar in general are a big problem. From ~1992 to the early 2000's the NWS had a 5-week radar/warning school in OKC. That was disbanded the the training hasn't been the same since (according to several retirees). So, as my generation retired, they not only took the experience, they took the training with them.

could that be fixed or addressed as part of a normal upgrade training requirement from GS 7,9,11 journeyman and an annual operational refresher course at GS12?... I assume 13's and above probably on the whole do a lot less operational work?

 

[Mike Smith]

could that be fixed or addressed as part of a normal upgrade training requirement from the GS 7,9,11, and an annual operational refresher course at GS12?... I assume 13's and above probably on the whole do a lot less operational work?

Perhaps, but the problems are far deeper than that.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

As an aside, OKC's Mike Morgan impressed me as an example of a meteorologist who didn't live and predict only by the computer output.

Mike is the best meteorologist in the OKC Metro market and it isn't even close.

 

[Jamie H]

The NWS is in serious trouble. NWS is starving for resources and no one at NOAA HQ cares. The rejection of Barry Myers at NOAA administrator is one of the stupidest things our Senate has done in the last 20 years (which is saying something)!! We need to move the NWS out of NOAA and into an independent agency. I suspect much more needs to be done but we need a NDRB -- desperately.

Given the outcome of the election, this could be very important moving forwards as neither NOAA or the NWS are necessarily safe anymore. Project 2025 says:

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) should be dismantled and many of its functions eliminated, sent to other agencies, privatized, or placed under the control of states and territories.


Focus the NWS on Commercial Operations. Each day, Americans rely on weather forecasts and warnings provided by local radio stations and colleges that are produced not by the NWS, but by private companies such as AccuWeather. Studies have found that the forecasts and warnings provided by the private companies are more reliable than those provided by the NWS.

Sounds reasonable?

Except the 'studies' are based on ForecastWatch's report on private providers, and does not use the NWS as part of this! I very much hope NOAA and the NWS are not changed, because they provide incredible information, publicly available, for free. Privatising this would be a travesty. If members are contacting their local representatives about a NDRB, also let them know you appreciate what you have!

(Hope this is reasonably on track for this thread).

 

[Jason N]

Privatising this would be a travesty. If members are contacting their local representatives about a NDRB, also let them know you appreciate what you have!

irrespective of P2025, assuming any of that actually happens in reality despite there being printing of the intent, there is part of me that both agrees and disagrees with your post respectfully.

In my opinion, market competition almost always increases success, but I agree the NWS system in place has over time due to its inherent connection with national budgets, provided a lot of good quality data for free and certainly valuable services to boot. However, if the inherent capabilities of the NWS are corroding, and it can be documented that private organizations have better verification statistics, Why would I want to keep an organization if the very information that is critical to national infrastructure, resource protection, and human safety has noticeably degraded over years and years?

due to whatever the internal issues are, as I don't really see inside that organization too deeply, I think there is a valid reason to question its existence (even if it's a mere internal/external shakeup, it's time for operational inspections and a federal review commission). Granted I am not advocating for NWS dissolution, I am simply saying, free information or not, if the quality of the output sucks, there is reason to question leadership, culture, and product at a minimum.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Is the organization as-is really working for the people right now? It's okay to have those conversations like an adult. Technology has changed significantly in the past 20-30 years since the last reorg, why not discuss a vision at least?