Legislation to Create a National Disaster Review Board

[Mike Smith]

--> I haven't read the bill, so I will ask you. What qualifies as a disaster in the Bill? only terrestrial? or are space impacts a consideration in it as well.

All natural disasters as I recall. There is no differentiation between earth and space. However, I've said several times the bill needs tweaking. In the middle of 80 some pages of verbiage about natural disasters, someone stuck in "school shootings." I have no problem with a study of school shootings but that requires completely different expertise than natural disasters. It needs to be removed from the bill.

 

[Jason N]

yeah, a linkage of natural disasters to school shootings isn't even in the same universe, so I think you're spot on that it should be removed.

 

[Alvaro ivan]

I'm not sure what point you are making. The whole point of tornado warnings is to give people advance notice that a tornado is going to occur in their area. At the time of a forming or in-progress tornado, you do not know how long it is going to last.

Livonia occurred in a densely populated area. One person died and a family's life was turned upside down. Could a quality warning have saved her? We don't know. But we do know this: The NWS never issued a tornado warning on that tornado.

The point is that QLCS spin-up type tornadoes (like Livonia) tend to be hard to warn due to their brief nature.

 

[gdlewen]

The point is that QLCS spin-up type tornadoes (like Livonia) tend to be hard to warn due to their brief nature.

I think it is possible to assess and warn of conditions favorable for QLCS tornado formation in advance of the actual mesovortex formation. The Tulsa WSO has issued such advisories in the past, but I don't recall the lead time. Perhaps 20-30 minutes sticks in my mind. Not for the actual tornado formation, of course--just advising that conditions were favorable for QLCS tornado formation and that QLCS tornados can spin up and dissipate quickly with little time for warning.

I think the bigger issue here is that there was not even a severe thunderstorm warning for the storm that hit Livonia, so people weren't even thinking "severe thunderstorm wind damage". Maybe someone has written up a case study on the event and has assessed whether or not a severe thunderstorm warning should have been issued. That would be an interesting read

 

[JamesCaruso]

The point is that QLCS spin-up type tornadoes (like Livonia) tend to be hard to warn due to their brief nature.

Maybe so. So maybe that’s the conclusion of the study of the event - i.e., it was a QLCS tornado, the science isn’t there yet to provide warnings for those, nobody did anything wrong, etc. But enough studies like that help keep the pressure on to advance the science to that point. Or to find other ways to deal with the scenario, such as Geoff’s idea above.

 

[Alvaro ivan]

I think it is possible to assess and warn of conditions favorable for QLCS tornado formation in advance of the actual mesovortex formation. The Tulsa WSO has issued such advisories in the past, but I don't recall the lead time. Perhaps 20-30 minutes sticks in my mind. Not for the actual tornado formation, of course--just advising that conditions were favorable for QLCS tornado formation and that QLCS tornados can spin up and dissipate quickly with little time for warning.

I think the bigger issue here is that there was not even a severe thunderstorm warning for the storm that hit Livonia, so people weren't even thinking "severe thunderstorm wind damage". Maybe someone has written up a case study on the event and has assessed whether or not a severe thunderstorm warning should have been issued. That would be an interesting read

Livonia, MI EF1 tornado is quite interesting to say the least

 

[Mike Smith]

Here's where I disagree w/r/t to Livonia. The goal of WEA is to be able to provide instant warning of storms instead of the lag that used to exist with sending them out on the teletype, the TV met telling master control she/he had to air a tornado warning and then airing it.

Livonia was not a 100 yard path. See: Whitman Unwarned Tornado, Part Two; Livonia Fatal Unwarned Tornado Reports for a map. I'm not a fan of WEA because of its many deficiencies. But, if we we are going claim we can do these instant warnings, then we should do them.

 

[gdlewen]

Here's where I disagree w/r/t to Livonia. The goal of WEA is to be able to provide instant warning of storms instead of the lag that used to exist with sending them out on the teletype, the TV met telling master control she/he had to air a tornado warning and then airing it.

Livonia was not a 100 yard path. See: Whitman Unwarned Tornado, Part Two; Livonia Fatal Unwarned Tornado Reports for a map. I'm not a fan of WEA because of its many deficiencies. But, if we we are going claim we can do these instant warnings, then we should do them.

Mike, it's possible any kind of damaging wind warning might have prevented the death in the Livonia storm, since it was caused by a tree falling on a house while a 2-year old and his mother were sleeping. I just don't know if any kind of damaging wind warning was issued for the Livonia area; I can find no evidence for one. The proposed National Disaster Review Board would certainly assess that as part of the process.

As far as a case study--given that there are methods that can be used to assess whether or not QLCS mesocyclone development can be anticipated with a 30+ minute lead time, it would be interesting to see someone apply those techniques to the Livonia storm to determine whether or not a QLCS tornado could have been anticipated. (I'm assuming they were not, but have no way to know for sure.)

The analysis in your post (see above) is more thorough than what the Detroit WSFO office has presented. However, much more can be done--an analysis of both the lack of a damaging wind warning and any warning of the potential for QLCS tornado development is yet to be presented.