Last Day of Hurricane Season

[Pat Lawrence]

I have been a Meteorologist for almost 12 years and have never heard of TSR. I, like most of us, make my own forecasts, do my own research and look at the models, so that would explain why I have never seen this website before. Quite frankly, at first glance, the TSR site looks pretty useless. Sorry. IMO, why would I go to this site when there is more information available at NHC's site and on all of the models we have available?

Now, I have heard of RMS but really don't follow any of there work or outlooks. Have you looked at NHC's site, the various models and the HPC outlooks yourself to see what the outlooks and guidance say? I'm pretty sure these are more useful.

Howie, I see that was post 666 for you

I wasn't sure if you had the link to the site being discussed so I posted it before this message from you.

Pat

 

[Margie Kieper]

I, like most of us, make my own forecasts...the TSR site looks pretty useless. Sorry. IMO, why would I go to this site when there is more information available at NHC's site and on all of the models we have available?

Why would you assume that a company in business to provide both public and private tropical weather forecasts, and who is a major player in that arena, would also be providing free help to the general public on their web site, so that the public could use the information to develop their own competing forecasts? I don't follow that reasoning at all.

TSR along with NOAA and Colorado State are the well-known seasonal hurricane forecasts that are in the news. Next year, I also expect North Carolina State University to be in that group, because, after all, they were one of only two I know of that did accurately forecast the 2006 season (the other was WeatherInsite). Already a lot of the news articles are making sure to include a quote from Xie these days, because of that. I didn't mention UKMET and ECMWF simply because their forecasts are not public.

The second reason I'm surprised you haven't heard of TSR is because they provide regular updates on existing storms for Reuters, who characterizes TSR as: "Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the leading resource for forecasting tropical storms worldwide."

 

[HAltschule]

I didn't assume anything. I simply stated that "I, like most of us, make my own forecasts, do my own research and look at the models, so that would explain why I have never seen this website before. Quite frankly, at first glance, the TSR site looks pretty useless. Sorry. IMO, why would I go to this site when there is more information available at NHC's site and on all of the models we have available?".

These companies you mention, such as TSR, cannot be placed in the same category as NOAA or Colorado State as they are much less known than the longstanding institutions that have been in place, in the public eye and in media for many years. TSR is NOT well known at all compared to the main sources of long range forecasts. If you asked someone who they refer to regarding long range Hurricane forecasts, I can confidently say that Accuweather, NOAA and Colorado State are in a whole different category than TSR.

I didn't mention UKMET and ECMWF simply because their forecasts are not public.

UKMET and ECMWF are public. We have using these models to forecast for many years. For the North American and Tropical Atlantic basin, here is the link. There are many other links as well. Here you will find the ECMWF and UKMET (aka PUKE MET) models. http://weather.cod.edu/models/
http://www.wxcaster.com/ww_models.htm
http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ukmet.html

and all of these tropical models, including the UKMET, that most of use during Hurricane Season. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

 

[Ed Schoenborn]

Once a tropical cyclone reaches tropical storm status, I like to go to TSR to look at the forecasted wind field of the tropical storm or hurricane. For this reason alone I find TSR most useful. Ed

 

[Margie Kieper]

"UKMET and ECMWF are public."

No, their seasonal hurricane forecasts are not public. I should add that not all of TSR's are public, either. Sometimes you can find the ones that are not in a press release, because their clients post it on their own web site!

Also, Accuweather does not provide the standard seasonal forecast, nor do they ever provide verification, and they are really not considered a player at all. They only discuss hurricane landfalls on the mainland US coastline.

The standard for providing a seasonal forecast is to provide a number or range for 1) named storms, i.e. tropical storms, 2) hurricanes, and 3) major hurricanes (ColoSt refers to these as "intense hurricanes").

Also forecast are a measure of the total energy for the season (each of the three use something a little different -- NHC and TSR use ACE, ColoSt uses NTC), and probability of landfalls at various locations (again, each uses a slightly different metric).

Currently the three "top guns" for hurricane forecasts are Colorado State, NOAA CPC (the team includes people from other areas of NOAA, including NHC), and TSR.

 

[HAltschule]

Margie,

I'm not trying to pick an argument here but I respectfully disagree with much of what you have to say. Some others have contacted me and said the same. But to be fair and not to rush to judgement, please tell us your experience and education in the field of Meteorology/Tropical Meteorology which you base these opinions upon. Perhaps I have missed something if you have been a Tropical Specialist for 20 years or something. Having been studying this stuff for 12 years and not having heard of half of the things you're telling me, I figure I should find out who is giving me this information. Thanks in advance.

 

[Margie Kieper]

Well your posts seem argumentative to me, but I have not responded in kind, and have taken the time to answer all of your questions. If you think that I have said something incorrect you should post exactly what it is that you have an issue with, or PM me.

 

[HAltschule]

This will likely be my last post because nothing fruitful is coming of this conversation. And, you still haven't answered my question as to your Meteorological background, education and experience in the field of Tropical Meteorology. Several other people who are professional, Full time Meteorologists in the field of Tropical Meteorology have asked me similar questions as to your background and the companies you mention because they don't rely on them either.

So, if you'd care to answer the question, I'm sure everyone on this thread would be interested to know.