HAltschule
EF5
Today is the last day of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. In accordance, I will await Dr. Gray and Joe Bastardi's updated Hurricane forecast for the 2006 season. I am fairly confident it will be another donward revisement.
Today is the last day of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. In accordance, I will await Dr. Gray and Joe Bastardi's updated Hurricane forecast for the 2006 season. I am fairly confident it will be another donward revisement.
Actually, August 3rd (or something like that) is, I believe, Gray/Klotzbach's last forecast for the season. They do a monthly forecast at the beginning of Sept and Oct, but that doesn't correspond to their seasonal numbers. Their last seasonal forecast is in August (which is still kind of cheating, in my opinion). They then do individual months, and recompile the seasonal totals based on those numbers in each of those post-August reports. Their new tactic of doing individual months has raised a large amount of confusion, but I don't know if that is really well explained by the media.
(Yeah, I know, I've become the chief ST defense monitor of the CSU Gray forecasting squad (duo), which is strange, since I'm ambivalent about their forecasting methods as it is, and I most definitely disagree with Gray's view on global warming, but I still respect their efforts at seasonal forecasting.)
I recall there were only two groups last spring predicting an El Nino (I think BOM was one of the two). Like long-term hurricane forecasting, there is not a high level of confidence in the El Nino forecasts. Nothing wrong with trying, even if the state of the science is not quite there yet.
I think it is OK to give a long range Hurricane Forecast as long as it is a general outlook and not too specific.
The seasonal Hurricane Outlook, I see few to none uses for it...except perhaps for Oil Rigs and financial traders.
I have been a Meteorologist for almost 12 years and have never heard of TSR. I, like most of us, make my own forecasts, do my own research and look at the models, so that would explain why I have never seen this website before. Quite frankly, at first glance, the TSR site looks pretty useless. Sorry. IMO, why would I go to this site when there is more information available at NHC's site and on all of the models we have available?
Now, I have heard of RMS but really don't follow any of there work or outlooks. Have you looked at NHC's site, the various models and the HPC outlooks yourself to see what the outlooks and guidance say? I'm pretty sure these are more useful.
I, like most of us, make my own forecasts...the TSR site looks pretty useless. Sorry. IMO, why would I go to this site when there is more information available at NHC's site and on all of the models we have available?
I didn't mention UKMET and ECMWF simply because their forecasts are not public.