La Nina developing?

[Michael Auker]

Todays new ENSO outlook calls for the possibility of a La Nina developing in the next 6 to 9 months. Depending on the strength of the developing La Nina, it might be good news for tornado lovers, especially east of the Mississippi.

 

[rdale]

Schaefer says LN / EN have little (if any) correlation to tornado days so I wouldn't go moving your chase tours east based on this ;>

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/schae...fer/el_nino.htm

 

[Ben Cotton]

However, significant differences as a function of ENSO phase were found in both the number of tornadoes and the number of strong and violent tornadoes for the Mideastern States, and for F2 and greater tornadoes over the entire contiguous United States. In these cases, more tornadoes appear to occur during La Nina months.

Chase vacation on the Atlantic coast? Count me out. However, as Schaefer and Tatom said, "These findings are still tenuous." Basically, they have no clue either. In the meantime, please don't ruin the hopes of us chasers stuck in the eastern third of the country.


BC

 

[B Ozanne]

I don't really understand their discussions. All their graphical products point to neutral conditions with a possible El Nino by winter 06/07. Over the next 6-9 months anomolies are only supposed to be around -.2C. Certainly well below what I would call La Nina.