July through September U.S. Summer Outlook

[mikegeukes]

July through September U.S. Summer Outlook
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2647.htm

Mike

 

[David Wolfson]

That is just disgusting. Bad enough that the Southwest is going to fry this summer, but they're already forecasting we'll continue to fry right into next summer, too! The Year Ahead

 

[Robert Butler]

I'm not a weather pro, or even an active chaser, but I've question...

I heard one report that the Dust Bowl drought pattern of the 1930s was linked to the North Atlantic hurricane long cycle. We are currently entering an echo of that period, with more tropical storms, and moisture being pushed up the east coast or down into Mexico rather than up into the central plains. Thus, allegedly, our current drought in the southwest is an echo of the Dust Bowl drought. If so, we could expect the pattern to continue over a period of years.

Has anyone looked into tornado and other severe storm activity levels during the Dust Bowl years? Will the redirection of moisture away from the central plains mean lackluster storm chasing for several years to come?

 

[Anthony Silver]

That is just disgusting. Bad enough that the Southwest is going to fry this summer, but they're already forecasting we'll continue to fry right into next summer, too! The Year Ahead
[/b]

Agreed...disgusting just about sums it up. If this drought pattern continues, we could be looking at another dry chase season for '07 in the Plains (let's just hope the pattern changes for the better, a third consecutive year with little to no severe weather action would make things REALLY miserable)!

 

[scott r currens]

We are currently entering an echo of that period (1930’s), with more tropical storms, and moisture being pushed up the east coast or down into Mexico rather than up into the central plains.

Where did you get this information?

Has anyone looked into tornado and other severe storm activity levels during the Dust Bowl years? Will the redirection of moisture away from the central plains mean lackluster storm chasing for several years to come?

We don’t have any reliable tornado statistics from the Dust Bowl years especially on the Great Plains.

 

[rdale]

...and we don't have reliable seasonal forecasting either, as most of this season's forecast busted...

 

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, I hold those seasonal outlooks about as close as I hold the Farmer's Alamanc. They're fun to look at, but nothing more than a guess.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

...and we don't have reliable seasonal forecasting either, as most of this season's forecast busted...

Note that this link and thread is from 2006... What was the verification? If nothing else, having a "55% chance of greater-than-average temps" does not guarantee that temps will be above average -- thus the purpose of probabilities. Not saying it was a good forecast (I don't know how it verified), but let's not get too carried away. Let those who always make 100% perfect forecasts be the first to throw stones... Nobody has perfect forecasts, and we should know that forecasts will bust from time to time.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I don't get it... what does Scott's post have to do with the outlook from '06?

Am I missing something here?

 

[rdale]

Note that this link and thread is from 2006... What was the verification?

Didn't realize someone dug up an old one! In any case, the extreme drought and heat conditions were not even remotely hinted at in this season's forecast.