Joe Bastardi's Winter 2010-2011 Outlook

[Daniel Christianson]

Off Topic sue me, October 19th Snow in the midwest somewhere...

 

[Tom Mitchell]

I did my forecast and I guarantee it is more accurate.

 

[Chris Carter]

You know the more i keep thinking about last winter, the more i am excited to see what this winter is going to hold for us. Local meteorologists were so wrong about our winter forecast that year, El Nino has proven many times to be a warm and dry winter for the Northern Plains and only on the rarest of occasions is it cold and snowy. In fact, after we saw our first measurable snow in Omaha on Oct 10, 2009, folklore said that snowy and cold Octobers lead to warm winters. YEA RIGHT!

If I remember correctly, after December 1st 2009, Omaha never got to 50 degrees again until March 5th 2010. We had the snowiest December on record, the longest cold snap and consistent snow cover since 1948.

I don't know what La Nina has in store for us this winter, but if its going to be something like El Nino last year? We are in for one wild ride.

 

[Mike Ridgeway]

Last spring in southern Idaho we were supposed to have above normal temps in March, April and May, all because of El Nino. Guess what? We had one of our coldest springs ever! And recently? We just had one of our warmest September's ever as we supposedly get closer to the La Nina scenario. It's getting to the point where I don't buy these long range forecasts. I'll stick with the short term.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

Nice write-up on this upcoming Winter can be found here:

http://www.stormvista.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=6492

(You need to be a member in order to see the graphic images.)

Looks particuarly cold/snowy for the Great lakes region...

 

[Martin North]

Considering the prolonged -ve NAO values, and the fact they are set become even more negative...I can't see why he's drifted away from lots of cold and snow in the NE there. For the first part of the winter anyways, the cold from Canada is going to find it difficult to exit continental america...and be pushed down your way.

The NAO was largely negative last winter too...

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Here is Joe Bastardi's winter outlook. Commentary is here: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/34891/winter-2011-heavier-snow-for-c.asp

A lot of skill goes into making seasonal forecasts. Climatotlogist look at mostly the global teleconnection trends, i.e. ENSO, PNA, NAO they tend to dominate seasonal weather patterns.

Now looking at the map above, assuming Joe is correct, it would suggest that on average from Dec-March, were going to see negative PNA (pos height anomalies) over the southern and SERN states with positve PNA across the NWRN half of the CONUS. This would suggest troughing over the WRN US and ridging over the ERN US, which is kinda in direct opposite to last winters pattern in which we saw the classic Siberian Express setup quite frequently with ridging all up and down the west coast of North America causing the jet stream to be aligned more meridionally from way up into Yukon/NW Territories SWRD into the SP allowing for continued massive polar outbreaks.

Anyways thats just my 2 cents, and btw, Joes outlook matches up fairly well with CPCs Winter Outlook so its not like Joe's just looking at tarot reading cards.

 

[Rejean Boudreau]

Prediction or a ''cuter'' version of a cut/paste picture.

JB's map is about similar to the average La Nina winter behavior that is published about everywhere. So no surprise with that.

From NOAA's Enso report:

 

[Jeff House]

Joe's forecast looks reasonable to me. It incorporates La Nina and some other key indicators. Keep in mind the goal is not to nail it like a 1-5 day forecast. It is not even to predict extremes, such as in a 6-10 or 11-15 day. The goal is to add incremental value over climatology. In the private sector, probabilities even slightly different than climo can add millions of dollars of value. If things to awry mid-winter, good risk managers can adjust as mets update the forecast. Risks this year include the NAO over-powering La Nina in the East. However, I like Joe's forecast. I'm similar. So, ivory tower academics, instead of nit-picking, watch and learn from operational mets how to add real value to the economy. All in good fun.

 

[amytierney]

Looks particuarly cold/snowy for the Great lakes region...

Its cold and snowy every year. But will it be record breaking??


Southern WI hit record breaking snows two/three years ago...Last bad winter i remember was in 1996 in the Upper Peninsula (50+ feet). Its always a mystery to me.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Its cold and snowy every year. But will it be record breaking??


Southern WI hit record breaking snows two/three years ago...Last bad winter i remember was in 1996 in the Upper Peninsula (50+ feet). Its always a mystery to me.

50+ feet??? even I would have grown tired of that... with all due respect, you may need to check your stat's again. I lived in the Houghton/Hancock area during that infamous winter.. highest amounts known that year was north of L'Anse in northern Baraga County.. the community of Herman received approximately 337 inches which is around 28 feet. My house which was 3 miles west of Chassell in central Houghton Co. received around 290" .. unofficial reports were up to 360" near Delaware in Keweenaw County about 15 miles below Copper Harbor. The winter of '78-'79 was even more brutal with about 390" in Delaware.. that is the official all time record.

 

[Chris Carter]

Joe Bastardi has been focusing most of his attention towards Europe, nothing against Europeans. Henry Margusity seems to be giving good feedback on the US weather for folks who follow Accuweather.

 

[John Massura]

The LRC folks have issued their winter forecast, discussion here: http://www.lrcweather.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=24&Itemid=29 (current link, actual content may shift over the next few days, but should be available around there somewhere)





Looks somewhat different than the AccuWx/CPC forecasts. I do not recall any verification stats from last year, but I believe they do have some verification on the site somewhere.

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

The LRC folks have issued their winter forecast, discussion here: http://www.lrcweather.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=24&Itemid=29 (current link, actual content may shift over the next few days, but should be available around there somewhere)





Looks somewhat different than the AccuWx/CPC forecasts. I do not recall any verification stats from last year, but I believe they do have some verification on the site somewhere.

Wow. Umm... wow. This is far different from any of the dozens of individual and company forecasts that I've seen. Certainly an outlier of outliers.

I don't think I've ever seen a winter Nina forecast with no below normal precip. areas.

 

[rdale]

His theory doesn't incorporate LN, just the 60 day recurring cycle.