Joe Bastardi's Winter 2010-2011 Outlook

[Chance Metz]

Here is a graph provided by the said arm with Cleveland, OH as one of the select cities. It shows that during 'neutral' years, you and I will actually fair better.

I don't see Cleveland but I do see Cincinnati, OH. Still it does show more snow in neutrel years.

 

[jdrenken]

Here is a graph provided by the said arm with Cleveland, OH as one of the select cities. It shows that during 'neutral' years, you and I will actually fair better.

I don't see Cleveland but I do see Cincinnati, OH. Still it does show more snow in neutrel years.

What...nothing about the NWS forecasting the same general thing as Bastardi? So you caught my oversight of the city...

Joe

NWS

DJF Temps

DJF Precipitation

JFM

JFM

 

[jdrenken]

Here are Cleveland's snowfall maps...50" difference in Cleveland.

2007-2008 La Nina showing 80"...not as strong of a La Nina as the El Nino.

1997-1998 Strong El Nino showing roughly 30" in Cleveland.

Average for Cleveland is only 63.3"

 

[Chance Metz]

So in 1997-1998 cleveland only got 30" for the whole winter but in 2007-2008 they got 70"? Seems like the first one is only for half the season since all of the numbers are way lower and only half of what the 207-2008 totals where.

 

[jdrenken]

So in 1997-1998 cleveland only got 30" for the whole winter but in 2007-2008 they got 70"? Seems like the first one is only for half the season since all of the numbers are way lower and only half of what the 207-2008 totals where.

Look...I've got a great idea for ya. Email CLE [email protected] and ask them personally since you don't believe that El Nino and La Nina have anything to do with forecasting winter.

By the way...this is the text that goes along with the said map you are questioning.

Snowfall during the 1997-1998 season was below normal which is typical for a strong El Nino winter. Snow totals in northeast Ohio ranged from less than 30 inches at the lakeshore around Cleveland to just over 70 inches in northern Geauga County where over 100 inches is seasonable. Totals in northwest Pennsylvania were from 60 to 80 inches near the lakeshore to near 150 inches inland in the heart of the snowbelt which is only slightly less than normal.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

Bascially El Nino and La Nino are not really factored into the forcast. And we all know it can change form one to the other and make your forcast a joke.

It would be extremely difficult for sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific to change from positive to negative in a short time span. There would be plenty of evidence of a change from El Nino to La Nina (or vice-versa) well before it actually happened. There would be plenty of time to update a forecast should it become apparent that El Nino/La Nina was changing.

Also, identifying El Nino and La Nina patterns are extremely important for seasonal forecasting. Preferred storm tracks are altered depending on the ENSO phase. These changes in preferred storm tracks can significantly alter the resulting precipitation and temperature patterns. El Nino winters tend to favor an active subtropical jetstream, with more storms moving across the southern United States. This leads to a cooler, wetter pattern across the southern United States, but extremely cold arctic intrusions occur less frequently. In contrast, La Nina winters tend to favor a more northern jetstream. As such, the southern United States tends to be warmer, drier in general...however, intense cold intrusions are more likely than during El Nino years.

 

[Chance Metz]

Look...I've got a great idea for ya. Email CLE [email protected] and ask them personally since you don't believe that El Nino and La Nina have anything to do with forecasting winter.

By the way...this is the text that goes along with the said map you are questioning.

All's I am saying is it only seems like half the season. Could that be the case, yes but then again parts of Cleveland have closer to 50". As for contacting the NWS in Cleveland I would love to also becuse we had a torando that they said never happend right down the road from where I lived. Not going to get into that on this topic much but if you see a funnel in the sky and a dust cloud on the ground do you not have a torando on the ground? All I am going to say about it. They never even did a strom survey either to say it was one or just a microburst. Guess I did get off topic there but I made my point.

By the way I am not saying El Nino and La Nino do not affect a winter forcast. Just seems strange that it is almsot excatly half of what is normal for the normal snowfall totals. I do not belive alot of data that comes form NOAA because it is so easy to edit the raw data to show something different. Hint I do not belive any maps on global warming for this reason.

 

[rdale]

I do not belive alot of data that comes form NOAA because it is so easy to edit the raw data to show something different.

It's just about impossible to edit RAW data without somebody noticing. Are you sure that's what you meant to say?

 

[jdrenken]

By the way I am not saying El Nino and La Nino do not affect a winter forcast. Just seems strange that it is almsot excatly half of what is normal for the normal snowfall totals. I do not belive alot of data that comes form NOAA because it is so easy to edit the raw data to show something different. Hint I do not belive any maps on global warming for this reason.

You hinted at not believing Joe B's forecast because of...

Plus they are practically at war with the NWS.

...so I provided data from the NWS to show that they are generally in agreement with the winter forecast. Now, you are saying you don't believe the data coming from NWS?

 

[Chance Metz]

Hmm, maybe that did come off wrong. Sorry about that. As for editing data and someone not noticing how many people know what to look for. Isn't it true that the numerical model forcasts are edited by te local tv wathermen for the viewers to understand? Not many viewers know that they think that they have a easy job figuring out all that chicken scatrch which is what it looks like to them if they saw it.

 

[rdale]

Isn't it true that the numerical model forcasts are edited by te local tv wathermen for the viewers to understand?

Uhh, no. There is no editing involved.

Not many viewers know that they think that they have a easy job figuring out all that chicken scatrch which is what it looks like to them if they saw it.

I'm confused. At this point one of us shall bow out of the conversation because there's some sort of understanding barrier at play here.

 

[Chance Metz]

Then how does it go form the NAM or GFS to the nice looking colorful graphics you see on tv? It has to be made into a format the viewer can understand. That is editing even if the data is still the same. It is like when you edit a photo by changing it's size or adjsuting the colors.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

Then how does it go form the NAM or GFS to the nice looking colorful graphics you see on tv? It has to be made into a format the viewer can understand. That is editing even if the data is still the same. It is like when you edit a photo by changing it's size or adjsuting the colors.

We have visualization software that can convert the raw numeric output to nice pretty graphics. There is no "editing" here. We simply apply colors to certain numbers, draw lines through other numbers.

Think of it this way...

The molecule H2O can exist as a solid (ice), liquid (water), and a gas (water vapor). As the molecule changes from one state to another, it is still the same molecule. Same with the model graphics; it's still the same underlying output, just manifest in a different way.

As for it being editing, even if the data is the same, we must be using different definitions of the word "edit".

Main Entry: 1ed·it
Pronunciation: \ˈe-dət\
Function: transitive verb
Etymology: back-formation from editor
Date: 1791
1 a : to prepare (as literary material) for publication or public presentation b : to assemble (as a moving picture or tape recording) by cutting and rearranging c : to alter, adapt, or refine especially to bring about conformity to a standard or to suit a particular purpose <carefully edited the speech> <edit a data file>
2 : to direct the publication of <edits the daily newspaper>
3 : delete —usually used with out
— ed·it·able \ˈe-də-tə-bəl\ adjective

I tend to think of edit in terms of 1c (to alter).

 

[Chance Metz]

What about to refine or makr colors show up better or to be in a format that everyone can understand? Of course it is the same data it has just been tweaked a little.

 

[rdale]

1) That's still not "editing."

2) There are PLENTY of TV meteorologists that INTERPRET the data and make a forecaster. And that's not "editing" either (unless you are going to say that the NWS edits the model data too )