Joe Bastardi's Winter 2010-2011 Outlook

[Mike Smith]

Here is Joe Bastardi's winter outlook. Commentary is here: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/34891/winter-2011-heavier-snow-for-c.asp

 

[Frank Kienast]

Anyone have statistics on Joe Bastardi's past winter forecast verifications?

 

[Robert Dewey]

I would be interested in that too, Frank. I have as much confidence in a winter forecast as I do a hurricane forecast. Your chances of being right are probably less than 50%.

 

[Isaac Pato]

I really don't see why they bother with these. If you even look at the map, you're wasting your time. Crap, I'll never get those 2 seconds back!

 

[rdale]

I really don't see why they bother with these.

Because the public demands it.

And it worked - you clicked.

 

[Mike Smith]

Verifying Joe's Summer Forecast





Here is Joe's forecast for summer 2010 and the NOAA rankings for June. July isn't out yet. However, SFO had its coldest July since 1971, so it looks like Joe's pattern will be quite good based on a quick review of the July weekly anomalies and the way August has started out.

I tend to be skeptical of long range forecasts. That said, I do see some consistent skill in Joe's based on eyeballing them. I have not conducted a formal verification. If I ever had to make a decision based on a long range forecast, Joe's is the one I would select.

Full disclosure: Joe works at WeatherData's parent company, AccuWeather.

 

[rdale]

And not to nit-pick, but that's not his summer outlook. His summer outlook has the core of the heat over west Texas and north, along with a small band in the northeast.

 

[Mike Smith]

Correct Bastardi Forecast

Rob,

Thank you...you are correct. It was mislabeled in my file and I did not look closely enough. The correct file is below.

Mike
View attachment 4337

 

[Jason Foster]

Anyone have statistics on Joe Bastardi's past winter forecast verifications?

While I don't doubt he has some reliability, I believe most of this outlooks tend to weight on the side of the dramatic, partly because it brings excitement and folks tend to take notice more. I also believe it is in part that Joe is just a weather weenie and likes to be dramatic and throw a little "wish casting" into his actual educated side.

That's all just opinion of course.

 

[Lanny Dean]

I just think his name is really really funny!

 

[Robert Dewey]

I just think his name is really really funny!

He used to be the met at a local news radio station many years ago. I was probably 7 or 8 at the time, and I didn't want to say his name lest my parents would think I said something else LOL

 

[Kevin Walters]

Bastardi's winter outlook aside from the below normal precip in the South, looks like a fairly typical winter.

 

[Chance Metz]

Yeah you might get in trouble for swearing. lol. I really do not look at long range forcasts. You would be better off askig a oldtimer what he thinks the winter will be like then using a computer model.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

I like Joe and his fanatical bodybuilding routine to keep himself in great shape despite being middle aged. (I'm not so keen on some of his political views.) There is certaintly no other meterologist with as big of biceps as his!

He really nailed last Winter's forecast and I suspect he will be on the money for this Winter. When there are strong El Nino & La Nino signals, long range Winter forecasts are relatively easy.

 

[Chance Metz]

All's I know is if this winter is like the last one in northeast Ohio we will all be wanting this heat of summer instead! lol.