James Spann speaks to the NWS and the media concerning tornado warnings and other...

[Andy Jackson]

Last night, we had tornado warnings in Wichita. They caused grumping and storm controversy. I address it here: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2011/06/what-should-meteorologists-do.html

If the science isn't there yet, it's not there yet. As far as people feeling they were disrupted, well let's see it's hot and humid in early June in Wichita, KS and a thunderstorm is approaching. I would say some red flags should come with the territory. I think there needs to be an accountability to the warning issuers but there also needs to be an accountability to those who live in tornado prone areas.

 

[hazelmaryjackson]

I have watched a lot of the coverage and reports of both the Tusca and Joplin tornadoes. One eye witness video report of the Tusca tornado struck me. The guy was driving to work, with the radio on when he turned the corner and saw this huge tornado. Clearly he had no idea there was a tornado hitting the city. And you could hear the radio in the background running the usual pointless ads. \

I also watched the Joplin coverage on the weather channel almost from the moment it hit and later reports. First of all it is sad but true that the hospital authorities were too late in responding to the warnings. One member of staff said they looked out of the window, saw the rain and thought they would work on a bit longer until the storm passed. The next thing it was upon them. He heard no warning at all in his part of the building. A nurse said they had only 5 minutes warning to enact their tornado procedures so were unable to move patients away from the windows.

Plus there were people killed entering Walmart when it struck. They presumably were not anticipating a tornado. Some people have said there was so much noise from the rain and such blurred visibility they did not realise there was a tornado there in Joplin until it hit. Lots of people said they thought it was just another violent storm.

One account was interesting however. She said the tornado sirens used to be sounded differently for different types of storm. Now it was all the same. In Joplin she said the first siren she heard was a short burst. Then ten minutes later they went off again and ten minutes after that the tornado hit. She found the siren warnings unclear and was uncertain what to expect from them. Maybe there is some truth in that.

There also seems to be some truth in the fact that some people simply do not believe it until they can see it. I also have to say that it does seems as if the very basic construction methods of southern houses contributes to the death toll when there is a direct hit.

I't's both ironic and sad that a Joplin resident was calling for storm shelters a few weeks earlier in the local press and was basically shouted down by local residents who said they did not want their tax dollars spent on an imaginary threat and anyone who wanted tornado shelters should build their own. And actually you know they are not that expensive. Look them up and do the maths. Neighbours could club together to share one.

 

[beaudodson]

There is also a lengthy and interesting conversation concerning this topic on AmericanWx - here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index....n-speaks-to-the-media-and-the-nws-concerning/

 

[Dave Gallaher]

I have watched a lot of the coverage and reports of both the Tusca and Joplin tornadoes. One eye witness video report of the Tusca tornado struck me. The guy was driving to work, with the radio on when he turned the corner and saw this huge tornado. Clearly he had no idea there was a tornado hitting the city. And you could hear the radio in the background running the usual pointless ads. \

Hazel,

In 1996, the Telecommunications Act changed US broadcast ownership regulations, allowing single companies to own and control a number of broadcast outlets in the same municipal area, undoing decades of broadcast quality that was driven by in-market competition. The two main reasons for the passage of the act were to 1) allow greater managment of news content nationwide and 2) to simplify music promotion, basically legalizing payola in the form of paying a 'promotional fee' to one company (i.e. Cumulus, ClearChannel etc) to assure simultaneous heavy airplay in a network of major markets.

One result is that most commercial radio broadcasts in US major markets are controlled by these companies, and therefore there is no local emphasis on programming except for commercials. No local weather or news, beyond the reading of forecasts, is now the norm for the majority of AM/FM stations across the country. Some stations, however, do switch over to audio from local TV outlets when severe weather is threatening.

Another result, unrelated to this topic, is the vapidity of endlessy repeated formula music in every market, without room for the local or regional airplay hits that once spiced the playlists.

 

[Jason Bolt]

Patrick, please read carefully. Plural: Tornadoes. Meaning cumulative. Of course, STL's Good Friday tornado -- densely populated area -- had zero fatalities. I know that. We will never get the death toll to zero in all 4's and 5's because you can do everything right and still loose your life as several poor souls in Greensburg did.

Joplin: Based on the survivors I have debriefed, videos, the radar, etc., here is what I speculate:

1. Since an unwarned early morning derecho in the 1970's JLN/Jasper Co. has sounded sirens for severe thunderstorm as well as tornado warnings. The sirens go off often in thunderstorm situations. That 'trains' people that the sirens are generally not an indicator of something really serious.
2. The tornado was, for all intents and purposes, invisible. I have a video from people in the damage path but right on the edge. You just could not see it.
3. We know that people need multiple sources to take cover. When you combine the fact the tornado could not be seen and that, in JLN, the sirens did NOT automatically mean "tornado," people did not draw the connection.
4. By the time they realized what was happening, it was too late to seek quality shelter.

5. the 20 minute lead time is crap. The "20 minute lead time" warning had the circulation "near Galena" which translates to 7th St. in Joplin, moving northeast. When people here a warning is NORTH of them and it moving NORTH i.e. away from them. Their reaction will be less than alarmed. I guarantee you this warning was heard, and ignored by anyone south of 7th St. in Joplin. THAT warning said to them "oh good it is going away from us nothing to worry about let's go to Arby's and get some dinner". The next warning was much more foreboding for south Joplin, but since things went from funnel to F-5 in 1:11 many people did not have time to seek out SUBSTANTIAL shelter as Greg Higgins referenced.

Also, that is not a dig at SGF. They did an outstanding job.

 

[rdale]

5. the 20 minute lead time is crap. The "20 minute lead time" warning had the circulation "near Galena" which translates to 7th St. in Joplin, moving northeast.

I do see some confusion with the text, but honestly -- who reads the text? The polygon clearly showed Joplin in the threat zone. That's what the TV weathercasters use, and anyone with software that alerts based on the polygon. So they still get some points in my book.

* AT 514 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR RIVERTON...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF BAXTER SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

A NW-SE oriented polygon for a tornado that is allegedly moving northeast? I would find that confusing.

Maybe I'm reading the polygon too much like an NHC "track cone"...?

 

[Jim Bishop]

Plus there were people killed entering Walmart when it struck. They presumably were not anticipating a tornado. Some people have said there was so much noise from the rain and such blurred visibility they did not realise there was a tornado there in Joplin until it hit. Lots of people said they thought it was just another violent storm.

One account was interesting however. She said the tornado sirens used to be sounded differently for different types of storm. Now it was all the same. In Joplin she said the first siren she heard was a short burst. Then ten minutes later they went off again and ten minutes after that the tornado hit. She found the siren warnings unclear and was uncertain what to expect from them. Maybe there is some truth in that.

I was chasing and stayed just southeast of the circulation/tornado going into Joplin. I stopped at the Walmart only moments before the tornado hit. There are a few things I want to make sure everyone here knows about this terrible situation. First, the tornado was completely rain wrapped from this vantage point. All I could see was a very dark, terrifying looking lowered based (or maybe shelf cloud) that dissappeared into a rain shaft that was black as night. Keep in mind this was 2-3 minutes before the tornado leveled this Walmart. Second, the tornado siren was blaring and it was extremely loud. However, in spite of this terrifying situation I had to run around many, many individuals and families that were casually walking into Walmart for their daily shopping. They acted like nothing out of the ordinary was going on! As my wife waited nervously for me return from the car in the parking lot, she later told me a woman was standing outside her car talking on the cell phone acting very put off by the siren...as if it was some huge inconvenience to her day!

Inside Walmart the only people that were 100% aware of what was coming were the employees. Never have I seen people in such a state of complete awareness that their lives were at stake, and may I say I wish there was something I could have done to help them and everyone else. But I saw numerous families going about their shopping experience, looking at me running through the store like I had lost my mind. There was absolutely no sense of urgency, fear or even a wonder for why the tornado siren was going off outside. These people didn't seem to be paying attention to the weather situation.

Prior to stopping at Walmart, we also stopped at a gas station in Joplin. There were people standing outside that couldn't have cared less about the tornado siren or the storm that was clearly headed straight for them.

From reading what Mike Smith and others have provided here about the use of the sirens in Joplin, I think that may have been the core of the issue in this case. People may have been somewhat accustom to it and don't associate it with a real tornado emergency, if the information provided is accurate. *IF* that is truly the case, what a tragedy in every sense of the word.

 

[Andy Jackson]

I was chasing and stayed just southeast of the circulation/tornado going into Joplin. I stopped at the Walmart only moments before the tornado hit. There are a few things I want to make sure everyone here knows about this terrible situation. First, the tornado was completely rain wrapped from this vantage point. All I could see was a very dark, terrifying looking lowered based (or maybe shelf cloud) that dissappeared into a rain shaft that was black as night. Keep in mind this was 2-3 minutes before the tornado leveled this Walmart. Second, the tornado siren was blaring and it was extremely loud. However, in spite of this terrifying situation I had to run around many, many individuals and families that were casually walking into Walmart for their daily shopping. They acted like nothing out of the ordinary was going on! As my wife waited nervously for me return from the car in the parking lot, she later told me a woman was standing outside her car talking on the cell phone acting very put off by the siren...as if it was some huge inconvenience to her day!

Inside Walmart the only people that were 100% aware of what was coming were the employees. Never have I seen people in such a state of complete awareness that their lives were at stake, and may I say I wish there was something I could have done to help them and everyone else. But I saw numerous families going about their shopping experience, looking at me running through the store like I had lost my mind. There was absolutely no sense of urgency, fear or even a wonder for why the tornado siren was going off outside. These people didn't seem to be paying attention to the weather situation.

Prior to stopping at Walmart, we also stopped at a gas station in Joplin. There were people standing outside that couldn't have cared less about the tornado siren or the storm that was clearly headed straight for them.

From reading what Mike Smith and others have provided here about the use of the sirens in Joplin, I think that may have been the core of the issue in this case. People may have been somewhat accustom to it and don't associate it with a real tornado emergency, if the information provided is accurate. *IF* that is truly the case, what a tragedy in every sense of the word.

Do you think this response would be the case in most US cities? Too me it looks like the NWS could be back to square 1, but for some people it is still effective.

As far as the NWS lead time polygon those change as the storm progresses. I think their claim of a 20min lead time is valid.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Do you think this response would be the case in most US cities? Too me it looks like the NWS could be back to square 1, but for some people it is still effective.

No Andy, I don't think so. It sounds like Joplin is a special case where the community associates the siren with a less severe threat than most other U.S. cities. For example, I'm pretty sure people would be in more of an actual panic if a siren went off in a city along the east or west coast. Unfortunately, this all comes back to a basic known problem that most people simply don't take warnings seriously (from radio, TV, or a siren) because they think it can never happen to them and/or we get warnings all the time and nothing ever comes of it...

 

[mwenzbauer]

Unfortunately, this all comes back to a basic known problem that most people simply don't take warnings seriously

Agree completely. This largely comes back to individual accountability. April 27 had all sorts of red flags even days in advance. Anyone taking 5 minutes out of their day to watch the weather on the local news, or check the internet in that area surely would have known that a dangerous situation was setting up. Sure, tornadoes cannot be predicted or pin-pointed with 100% accuracy, but people should have at least been making plans in the event that a tornado came through their town. Even the Joplin day was a moderate risk if I recall which is hardly insignificant. Simply put, most people just don't pay attention to the weather and thus even the best warnings (which all of these events had it seems) will result in tragic events.

I couldn't believe one interview after Joplin where a woman exclaimed "Tornadoes don't happen in Missouri".... really? Did 5-10-2008 not happen just three years ago just down the road? If nothing else I'm hoping the extreme events this year will get a few people to actually take weather more serious in tornado prone areas... there is only so much technology and meteorology can do if people aren't paying attention.

 

[Mike Smith]

No, I don't think the NWS is back to square one, nor do I think most cities would react like Joplin to sirens. For 30+ years, Jasper Co./Joplin have unwittingly "trained" people that sirens are no big deal. After all, until the recent increase in criteria, they used to go off for 3/4" hail!

That said, during the 2011 tornado season, I have been in Lawrence, Kansas; Overland Park, Kansas; and St. Louis, MO (4 times) during siren activations and I was threatened once. So, five of those siren activations were completely unnecessary (given today's science and technology).

I believe the siren problem lies with the emergency management community's misguided "better safe than sorry" attitude. Please take a look at this tape: http://www.kmov.com/news/local/Coul...-sirens-do-more-harm-than-good-122759099.html

In the case of St. Louis County, they not only activate sirens over the entire county, they active them if there is a tornado in an adjacent county moving in the general direction of any part of St. Louis County! That creates a huge number of unnecessary false alarms.

As I say in the interview, it is time to get back to the sirens meaning take cover.

 

[Todd Friskey]

I have been talking with different people in my community the past few weeks and something has come to light for me. People tell me they remember hearing about a possible tornado at 7th and Schifferdecker moving east down 7th street. In this video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQnvxJZucds) a person states there is supposed to be a tornado at 7th and Rangeline. Of course none of this never happened. In the video shot by Jeff and Karen Piotrowski (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfdK6H9d6J0) of the actual beast which hit Joplin there is a point in the video where he tells a JPD squad car to get the sirens going, they are on 7th street at the time. Is it possible the officer called it in giving his location to the dispatcher and the dispatcher took the officers location as that is where the tornado was at? They were not that far away from 7th and Schifferdecker at the point in the video. Could there have been a possible miscommunication which led the media to report a possible tornado at 7th and Schifferdecker which is over a mile north of where the twister actually hit. Could this have contributed to a lack of response in the people further south?

 

[Matt Tottle]

*NOAA Weather Radio must be upgraded to the polygon warning system soon, or it will become obsolete.

Sure, it is the best thing we have now, and I still promote it heavily. But, why hasn’t NOAA upgraded their system so the receiver manufacturers can produce models with GPS included so they sound only when the receiver is a in a warning polygon? If something doesn’t change soon, the private sector will be the ones that push the warning process into the new technological era.

Since it hasn't really been touched on yet, I'll throw my nickel's worth in on this. Adding GPS to weather radio is a bit extreme. First of all, it means each radio will have to have an antenna with a sky view. Three of my four radios don't, and two of them aren't in a place that would be convenient to run a cable to the window for a remote antenna. Second, it would add substantial cost to the end price of the radio. People aren't willing to spend $30-40 on a weather radio now, so why would they pay $50 or 60 for one that needs to sit on the windowsill?

They added the means of adapting SAME to the polygon system YEARS ago, but they never started using it. The first digit of a SAME location code was intended to subdivide the county into up to nine possible sectors. But they never implemented it, and all codes are listed at the county level (they all start with Zero). All they have to do is update the "Weather Radio Programming Page" to search codes by address (therefore allowing it to give you the correct 'sector number'), and when a watch/warning goes out, they need to alert only those sectors included in the polygon. Radios coded with Zero as the first digit still receive all alerts for a given county. No new expense or technology change required.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

Since it hasn't really been touched on yet, I'll throw my nickel's worth in on this. Adding GPS to weather radio is a bit extreme. First of all, it means each radio will have to have an antenna with a sky view. Three of my four radios don't, and two of them aren't in a place that would be convenient to run a cable to the window for a remote antenna. Second, it would add substantial cost to the end price of the radio. People aren't willing to spend $30-40 on a weather radio now, so why would they pay $50 or 60 for one that needs to sit on the windowsill?

They added the means of adapting SAME to the polygon system YEARS ago, but they never started using it. The first digit of a SAME location code was intended to subdivide the county into up to nine possible sectors. But they never implemented it, and all codes are listed at the county level (they all start with Zero). All they have to do is update the "Weather Radio Programming Page" to search codes by address (therefore allowing it to give you the correct 'sector number'), and when a watch/warning goes out, they need to alert only those sectors included in the polygon. Radios coded with Zero as the first digit still receive all alerts for a given county. No new expense or technology change required.

A simple work around is to allow a user to manually enter his or her latitude and longitude. Then you still get all the benefits without needing to communicate with a satellite.